Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

Thesis ONE

I am an OLDER Amateur and the long term prognosis of AR worries me.
I am NOT having a temper tantrum about the FCC doing away with the CW
testing requirement.

This is a major change, but I think major changes are needed.
Change is upsetting to some people, but things that don't change are DEAD.

What further changes are needed???


Thesis TWO

--------AR has not kept up with changing technology-------------
In WWI and WWII CW was state of the art. NOT so today.
Today Having an EXTRA or a 25 wpm certificate does not give you a better
insight into, or better operating technique in today's radio communications
systems.
.

Thesis Three
Any how, when I got into AR in the early 80's after a long period as a SWL
and CBer, there were a lot of guys my age ( relative youngsters, age 25-30)
just coming into AR.
I am just not seeing youngsters coming in today.

THIS WORRIES ME.

What can be done to bring new young blood into AR?



Thesis FOUR

I have spent most of my adult life dealing with VHF, UHF and now 800MHz
trunking systems.
CW to me isn't bad, its just not germane to my day to day existence.

I am an amateur who likes fiddling with things.
Not so much operating, as asking questions like: can I take those VHF-LO
whips that are already on those trucks cut hem down a little bit, and turn
them into 5/8 wave antennae for the new VHF HI system? That sure would save
a lot of work drilling and installing new antennae.


Computers are the thing now, and the RF parts of their communication systems
are what is important now in radio.
I don' think we should kill off or stop using CW or SSB, nor do I think we
should allow robot stations using various protocols to spread everywhere.
To paraphrase Ecclesiastes: To every emission type there is some spectrum, A
band for Cw, a band for SSB, a band for PSK-31, etc.

Moderation in all things, and emission types..



Thesis FIVE

The recent FCC ruling on CW and the changes in various HF emissions
authorizations are part of what I see as a slow but continuous movement
toward an AR licensing system that will only have two licenses.
Class A will be what used to be EXTRA, Advanced, and General, who will be
allowed to use all authorized bandwidths, emissions and frequencies.
Class B will be Techs, Tech Plus, and the old Novices who will be restricted
to frequencies above 30 or 50 MHZ, and they will be appliance operators not
allowed to adjust or repair their equipment.

Take a look at CEPT 1 and CEPT 2.

I think this is going to happen no matter what AR licensees have to say
about it, because the FCC is just not interested in AR.
AR is just not on their radar screens because the commissioners are from the
DC chattering classes have little or no personal technical expertise.
AR just cannot compete with the hordes of lobbyists and lawyers from the
various Telecommunications interest groups like the CTIA, the FCC Bar, NAB,
BPL operators,ATT, the various baby bells etc.
NO lobbyists = NO clout at the FCC

What can AR do to have some say about further changes mandated at the FCC?

Thesis SIX

When I got interested in radio 35+ years ago, it seemed to me that there
were several (non exclusive) "types"
1) talkers "ragchewers"
2) international goodwillers " Hey I just talked to a guy in Paraguay"
3)fiddlers "hey what happens if I put an extra capacitor in this power
supply I just built"
4) public service guys " I wonder if I could be the Eastern net control of
the TCC tonight after I clear the Races net?"

It seems to me that the international goodwill types have all gone away to
the internet.
And the fiddlers are fiddling around less and less because modern day
equipment to too small and complicated to work on at home, so they've gone
off into programming or computer building.

It appears to me that AR radiolicensees are devolving into two groups:
VHF public service/talkers
and
A declining number of fiddlers.

Is this good for AR?


If you want you can reply with your thoughts on any or all of these points.
Lets keep this a genteel discussion.
Amateur radio has several long term problems.
Flame wars will not help solve them.

Dan Yemiola
AI8O

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

this is the best reasoned and fully thought through forecast of what is
likely to happen to AR in north america/uk/europe in the next 5---20
years.All of us involved in the HOBBYmust get our acts TOGETHER in order to
retain as many aspects of our wonderful pasttime in the face of the greed
of governments and "bottom line" greed.however I am very discouraged by the
amount of anger agressiveness rage and obscenity posted to this and other
subject related Newsgroups.
and fyi I am 80 years old and am learning pc skills from my 14 year old
grandson and his 12 year old sister--so there is always something else to
learn as technology advances( how can we use it to expand/improve the hobby
"??? .just a few not so rambling thoughts. happy new year to all from
SCOTLAND. GM0LTQ
"Dan" wrote in message
...
Thesis ONE

I am an OLDER Amateur and the long term prognosis of AR worries me.
I am NOT having a temper tantrum about the FCC doing away with the CW
testing requirement.

This is a major change, but I think major changes are needed.
Change is upsetting to some people, but things that don't change are DEAD.

What further changes are needed???


Thesis TWO

--------AR has not kept up with changing technology-------------
In WWI and WWII CW was state of the art. NOT so today.
Today Having an EXTRA or a 25 wpm certificate does not give you a better
insight into, or better operating technique in today's radio
communications systems.
.

Thesis Three
Any how, when I got into AR in the early 80's after a long period as a SWL
and CBer, there were a lot of guys my age ( relative youngsters, age
25-30) just coming into AR.
I am just not seeing youngsters coming in today.

THIS WORRIES ME.

What can be done to bring new young blood into AR?



Thesis FOUR

I have spent most of my adult life dealing with VHF, UHF and now 800MHz
trunking systems.
CW to me isn't bad, its just not germane to my day to day existence.

I am an amateur who likes fiddling with things.
Not so much operating, as asking questions like: can I take those VHF-LO
whips that are already on those trucks cut hem down a little bit, and turn
them into 5/8 wave antennae for the new VHF HI system? That sure would
save a lot of work drilling and installing new antennae.


Computers are the thing now, and the RF parts of their communication
systems are what is important now in radio.
I don' think we should kill off or stop using CW or SSB, nor do I think we
should allow robot stations using various protocols to spread everywhere.
To paraphrase Ecclesiastes: To every emission type there is some spectrum,
A band for Cw, a band for SSB, a band for PSK-31, etc.

Moderation in all things, and emission types..



Thesis FIVE

The recent FCC ruling on CW and the changes in various HF emissions
authorizations are part of what I see as a slow but continuous movement
toward an AR licensing system that will only have two licenses.
Class A will be what used to be EXTRA, Advanced, and General, who will be
allowed to use all authorized bandwidths, emissions and frequencies.
Class B will be Techs, Tech Plus, and the old Novices who will be
restricted to frequencies above 30 or 50 MHZ, and they will be appliance
operators not allowed to adjust or repair their equipment.

Take a look at CEPT 1 and CEPT 2.

I think this is going to happen no matter what AR licensees have to say
about it, because the FCC is just not interested in AR.
AR is just not on their radar screens because the commissioners are from
the DC chattering classes have little or no personal technical expertise.
AR just cannot compete with the hordes of lobbyists and lawyers from the
various Telecommunications interest groups like the CTIA, the FCC Bar,
NAB, BPL operators,ATT, the various baby bells etc.
NO lobbyists = NO clout at the FCC

What can AR do to have some say about further changes mandated at the
FCC?

Thesis SIX

When I got interested in radio 35+ years ago, it seemed to me that there
were several (non exclusive) "types"
1) talkers "ragchewers"
2) international goodwillers " Hey I just talked to a guy in Paraguay"
3)fiddlers "hey what happens if I put an extra capacitor in this power
supply I just built"
4) public service guys " I wonder if I could be the Eastern net control of
the TCC tonight after I clear the Races net?"

It seems to me that the international goodwill types have all gone away to
the internet.
And the fiddlers are fiddling around less and less because modern day
equipment to too small and complicated to work on at home, so they've gone
off into programming or computer building.

It appears to me that AR radiolicensees are devolving into two groups:
VHF public service/talkers
and
A declining number of fiddlers.

Is this good for AR?


If you want you can reply with your thoughts on any or all of these
points.
Lets keep this a genteel discussion.
Amateur radio has several long term problems.
Flame wars will not help solve them.

Dan Yemiola
AI8O

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

What does this have to do with antennas.?

Please post this in rec.radio.amateur.misc

To the antenna guys - please don't respond to this trolling.

Rick

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

"Rick" wrote in message
...
What does this have to do with antennas.?

AR licensee numbers are declining
NO AR= NO need for antennae


Please post this in rec.radio.amateur.misc

To the antenna guys - please don't respond to this trolling.

You didn't read the last two lines of the posting:

Amateur radio has several long term problems.
Flame wars will not help solve them.


Rick

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

Dan wrote:

"Rick" wrote in message
What does this have to do with antennas.?

AR licensee numbers are declining
NO AR= NO need for antennae

That's complete BS. In 1979 we had 1/3 the number
of licensees that we have today, yet the '79 WARC
gave us three new HF bands. We do not need large
numbers to keep what we currently have.

Please abide by the followup-to line above.

No 73 for you,
Jeff KH6O


*Chief Petty Officer, U.S. Coast Guard*
*Mathematics Lecturer, University of Hawaii System*
--

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

"Dan" wrote in message
...
Thesis ONE

I am an OLDER Amateur and the long term prognosis of AR worries me.
I am NOT having a temper tantrum about the FCC doing away with the CW
testing requirement.

This is a major change, but I think major changes are needed.
Change is upsetting to some people, but things that don't change are DEAD.

What further changes are needed???


Thesis TWO

--------AR has not kept up with changing technology-------------
In WWI and WWII CW was state of the art. NOT so today.
Today Having an EXTRA or a 25 wpm certificate does not give you a better
insight into, or better operating technique in today's radio
communications systems.
.

Thesis Three
Any how, when I got into AR in the early 80's after a long period as a SWL
and CBer, there were a lot of guys my age ( relative youngsters, age
25-30) just coming into AR.
I am just not seeing youngsters coming in today.

THIS WORRIES ME.

What can be done to bring new young blood into AR?



Thesis FOUR

I have spent most of my adult life dealing with VHF, UHF and now 800MHz
trunking systems.
CW to me isn't bad, its just not germane to my day to day existence.

I am an amateur who likes fiddling with things.
Not so much operating, as asking questions like: can I take those VHF-LO
whips that are already on those trucks cut hem down a little bit, and turn
them into 5/8 wave antennae for the new VHF HI system? That sure would
save a lot of work drilling and installing new antennae.


Computers are the thing now, and the RF parts of their communication
systems are what is important now in radio.
I don' think we should kill off or stop using CW or SSB, nor do I think we
should allow robot stations using various protocols to spread everywhere.
To paraphrase Ecclesiastes: To every emission type there is some spectrum,
A band for Cw, a band for SSB, a band for PSK-31, etc.

Moderation in all things, and emission types..



Thesis FIVE

The recent FCC ruling on CW and the changes in various HF emissions
authorizations are part of what I see as a slow but continuous movement
toward an AR licensing system that will only have two licenses.
Class A will be what used to be EXTRA, Advanced, and General, who will be
allowed to use all authorized bandwidths, emissions and frequencies.
Class B will be Techs, Tech Plus, and the old Novices who will be
restricted to frequencies above 30 or 50 MHZ, and they will be appliance
operators not allowed to adjust or repair their equipment.

Take a look at CEPT 1 and CEPT 2.

I think this is going to happen no matter what AR licensees have to say
about it, because the FCC is just not interested in AR.
AR is just not on their radar screens because the commissioners are from
the DC chattering classes have little or no personal technical expertise.
AR just cannot compete with the hordes of lobbyists and lawyers from the
various Telecommunications interest groups like the CTIA, the FCC Bar,
NAB, BPL operators,ATT, the various baby bells etc.
NO lobbyists = NO clout at the FCC

What can AR do to have some say about further changes mandated at the
FCC?

Thesis SIX

When I got interested in radio 35+ years ago, it seemed to me that there
were several (non exclusive) "types"
1) talkers "ragchewers"
2) international goodwillers " Hey I just talked to a guy in Paraguay"
3)fiddlers "hey what happens if I put an extra capacitor in this power
supply I just built"
4) public service guys " I wonder if I could be the Eastern net control of
the TCC tonight after I clear the Races net?"

It seems to me that the international goodwill types have all gone away to
the internet.
And the fiddlers are fiddling around less and less because modern day
equipment to too small and complicated to work on at home, so they've gone
off into programming or computer building.

It appears to me that AR radiolicensees are devolving into two groups:
VHF public service/talkers
and
A declining number of fiddlers.

Is this good for AR?


If you want you can reply with your thoughts on any or all of these
points.
Lets keep this a genteel discussion.
Amateur radio has several long term problems.
Flame wars will not help solve them.

Dan Yemiola
AI8O

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

By no means am I attempting to trvialize your many comments but I think the
situation is not so complex.

Consider that the FCC only has limited power to control AR. The AR radio
spectrum will be there no matter what FCC policies are. As long is there are
people who are fascinated by the science, and to whatever degree they are
capable of manipulating it, transmissions will take place on what is now the
AR spectrum, even if the FCC were to "declare" an end to the service
tomorrow. A better question might be what is the FCC's role in AR in the
future? To what extent will those interested in radio allow the FCC to
regulate them?

There will always be people communicating on the resource, legal or illegal.
AR got its start without benefit of an FCC and it would continue to go on
without an FCC. (ex. CB, the geeks using pringles cans for 1.4 GHz antennae,
firmware patches to increase the power of there wireless routers etc.).

Getting young people interested is not a very relevant issue. The relevance
of radio to them is important. On the island of Cuba we still have hams
sitting at their keys in train stations communicating on 40m to South
Florida on CW with equipment that is obviously very crude. For them it is
fun...and relevant to them especially if you send them a few dollars. Young
people and old who have attended basic physics class in high school already
know that the HF/VHF etc. frequencies are there to use and they will be used
whenever communication becomes relevant to their personal lives. Hell, even
high school dropouts consigned to driving trucks for a living know all about
11m.

You cannot bring the relevancy to them; relevancy will find its own path,
perhaps by people who today have no desire to participate in the traditional
AR service.

For technology, I would not expect any miracles soon (despite all the former
promises of smart new blood being able to enter the service after CW is
gone). The physics of the natural resource is very limited. The bandwidth of
"HF" is much too narrow for anything other than CW and AM radio to be used
on a practical basis, no matter how good the propagation conditions. HF is a
narrow creek, not a raging river whose energy can be harnessed for much more
noble uses.

Finally, the FCC not only lacks effective control of the USA "amateur"
community; US citizens interested in using the resource will do so with or
without the permission of a government agency (as in Cuba and everywhere
else for that matter). There is a large installed base of amateur equipment
that will be used; there is a larger base than can easily be contructed
using readily available components if the desire is there because some
condition in society made it relevant to do that. The existence of this
equipment (and ready capability) lets allows others to assume that if they
get on the bands, they will always have someone to communicate with.

Neither the FCC nor the ARRL had much influence on the number of people
interested in the science today. They are neutral parties no matter what
such organizations would have you believe. They react to society's
conditions; they do not drive either the size of relevance of amateur radio
to its practitioners.

Without an installed base of equipment, or easy availablity of components
from which to make a radio, there would be no ham radio, legal or not. But
the base is there and it is irreversible. With this base there will always
be "ham" radio, legal or not, as there was ham radio before the FCC was
formed in the '30s and as there would be after.

Additionally, the FCC has no jurisdiction at all outside of our borders so
obviously it would take more than the FCC to end ham radio; it would take a
UN treaty, and even then it wouldn't work.

So, ham radio will always be with us in some form or other, and operating as
best it can within its natural limitations and manmade interference. Man is
a social animal and will always want and need to communicate.

The FCC trying to regulate a natural resource is similar to the Fedreal
reserve attempting to regulate the economy. It has some effect, not always
as intended but with or without a federal reserve, there will always be an
exconomy, for better or for worse. And I would not assume "worse" without
the Fed..

Radio will always be interesting to some and that fact alone will always
keep it alive. I think you flatter the service by assuming that the FCC or
licensed radio amateurs have so much control over a sprectral resource that
in the end cannot be regulated anymore than gravity or relativity.



"Dan" wrote in message
...
Thesis ONE

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

"Stefan Wolfe" wrote in message
...
By no means am I attempting to trvialize your many comments but I think
the
situation is not so complex.

Consider that the FCC only has limited power to control AR. The AR radio
spectrum will be there no matter what FCC policies are. As long is there
are
people who are fascinated by the science, and to whatever degree they are
capable of manipulating it, transmissions will take place on what is now
the
AR spectrum, even if the FCC were to "declare" an end to the service
tomorrow. A better question might be what is the FCC's role in AR in the
future? To what extent will those interested in radio allow the FCC to
regulate them?

There will always be people communicating on the resource, legal or
illegal.
AR got its start without benefit of an FCC and it would continue to go on
without an FCC. (ex. CB, the geeks using pringles cans for 1.4 GHz
antennae,
firmware patches to increase the power of there wireless routers etc.).

Getting young people interested is not a very relevant issue. The
relevance
of radio to them is important. On the island of Cuba we still have hams
sitting at their keys in train stations communicating on 40m to South
Florida on CW with equipment that is obviously very crude. For them it is
fun...and relevant to them especially if you send them a few dollars.
Young
people and old who have attended basic physics class in high school
already
know that the HF/VHF etc. frequencies are there to use and they will be
used
whenever communication becomes relevant to their personal lives. Hell,
even
high school dropouts consigned to driving trucks for a living know all
about
11m.

You cannot bring the relevancy to them; relevancy will find its own path,
perhaps by people who today have no desire to participate in the
traditional
AR service.

For technology, I would not expect any miracles soon (despite all the
former
promises of smart new blood being able to enter the service after CW is
gone). The physics of the natural resource is very limited. The bandwidth
of
"HF" is much too narrow for anything other than CW and AM radio to be used
on a practical basis, no matter how good the propagation conditions. HF is
a
narrow creek, not a raging river whose energy can be harnessed for much
more
noble uses.

Finally, the FCC not only lacks effective control of the USA "amateur"
community; US citizens interested in using the resource will do so with or
without the permission of a government agency (as in Cuba and everywhere
else for that matter). There is a large installed base of amateur
equipment
that will be used; there is a larger base than can easily be contructed
using readily available components if the desire is there because some
condition in society made it relevant to do that. The existence of this
equipment (and ready capability) lets allows others to assume that if they
get on the bands, they will always have someone to communicate with.

Neither the FCC nor the ARRL had much influence on the number of people
interested in the science today. They are neutral parties no matter what
such organizations would have you believe. They react to society's
conditions; they do not drive either the size of relevance of amateur
radio
to its practitioners.

Without an installed base of equipment, or easy availablity of components
from which to make a radio, there would be no ham radio, legal or not. But
the base is there and it is irreversible. With this base there will always
be "ham" radio, legal or not, as there was ham radio before the FCC was
formed in the '30s and as there would be after.

Additionally, the FCC has no jurisdiction at all outside of our borders so
obviously it would take more than the FCC to end ham radio; it would take
a
UN treaty, and even then it wouldn't work.

So, ham radio will always be with us in some form or other, and operating
as
best it can within its natural limitations and manmade interference. Man
is
a social animal and will always want and need to communicate.

The FCC trying to regulate a natural resource is similar to the Fedreal
reserve attempting to regulate the economy. It has some effect, not always
as intended but with or without a federal reserve, there will always be an
exconomy, for better or for worse. And I would not assume "worse" without
the Fed..

Radio will always be interesting to some and that fact alone will always
keep it alive. I think you flatter the service by assuming that the FCC or
licensed radio amateurs have so much control over a sprectral resource
that
in the end cannot be regulated anymore than gravity or relativity.



"Dan" wrote in message
...
Thesis ONE



I doubt if the FCC cares about what we do inside our allocations. It is my
opinion that if we want to keep our bandwidth we must remain a self policing
group. The last thing we want is for the FCC to ever have to clean our
house, I am afraid they would do it with a bulldozer.

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

Jimmie D wrote:

I doubt if the FCC cares about what we do inside our allocations. It is my
opinion that if we want to keep our bandwidth we must remain a self policing
group. The last thing we want is for the FCC to ever have to clean our
house, I am afraid they would do it with a bulldozer.



Sounds like "Jimmie D's Pure Pork Sausage", or junk food for the mind ...

JS

Discussion points on a long term Prognosis for AMATEUR RADIO
 

"Jimmie D" wrote in message
. ..

I doubt if the FCC cares about what we do inside our allocations. It is my
opinion that if we want to keep our bandwidth we must remain a self
policing group. The last thing we want is for the FCC to ever have to
clean our house, I am afraid they would do it with a bulldozer.

Right. Just like they cleaned up the 11 meter band. FCC is powerless against
people who choose not to obey them. True, they can pick-off offenders one at
a time. But as with CB, they would be powerless against an installed base of
operators who wish to transmit. Any interest group that obtained todays
amateur allocations would be subjected to massive interference by illegal
operators rendering their resource financially useless. And how would you
expect the USA FCC to "clean up" the CEPT countries? Or South America? Or
Canada? Japan? China? etc..