These are the number of current,
unexpired FCC-issued amateur
radio licenses held by individuals
on the stated dates, and the
percentage of the total number
of active licenses that class contains.

Percentages may not add up to exactly
100.0% due to rounding.

These totals do not include licenses
that have expired but are in the grace
period, nor do they include club, military
and other station-only licenses.

Effective April 15, 2000, FCC no longer issued
new Novice, Technician Plus and Advanced
class licenses, so the numbers of those license
classes have declined steadily since then.

Also since April 15, 2000, FCC has renewed all
existing Technician Plus licenses as Technician.
It is therefore informative to consider the totals of
the two classes, since the Technician class
includes a significant number of Technician Plus
licenses renewed as Technician.

On February 23, 2007, the last Morse Code
test element, the 5 wpm receiving test, was
eliminated as a requirement.

The ARS License Numbers:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice- 49,329 (7.3%)
Technician - 205,394 (30.4%)
Technician Plus - 128,860 (19.1%)
General - 112,677 (16.7%)
Advanced - 99,782 (14.8%)
Extra - 78,750 (11.7%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 674,792


As of February 22, 2007:

Novice - 22,896 (3.5%)
Technician - 293,508 (44.8%)
Technician Plus - 30,818 (4.7%)
General - 130,138 (19.9%)
Advanced - 69,050 (10.5%)
Extra - 108,270 (16.5%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 324,326 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 654,680


As of March 9, 2007:

Novice - 22,725 (3.5%)
Technician - 291,312 (44.5%)
Technician Plus - 30,243 (4.6%)
General - 132,863 (20.3%)
Advanced - 68,837 (10.5%)
Extra - 108,789 (16.6%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 321,555 (49.1%)

Total all classes - 654,769


Changes:

From May 14, 2000, to February 22, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 26,433
Technician - increase of 88,114
Technician Plus - decrease of 98,042
General - increase of 17,461
Advanced - decrease of 30,732
Extra - increase of 29,520

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 9,928

Total all classes - decrease of 20,112


From May 14, 2000, to March 9, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 26,604
Technician - increase of 85,918
Technician Plus - decrease of 98,617
General - increase of 20,816
Advanced - decrease of 30,945
Extra - increase of 30,039

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 12,699

Total all classes - decrease of 20,023


From February 22, 2007, to March 9, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 171
Technician - decrease of 2,196
Technician Plus - decrease of 575
General - increase of 2,725
Advanced - decrease of 213
Extra - increase of 519

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 2,771

Total all classes - increase of 89

---

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote in message
ups.com...

[snip]

Total all classes - increase of 89

---

73 de Jim, N2EY


Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% growth in one year.

Dee, N8UZE

In article ,
"Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
ups.com...

[snip]

Total all classes - increase of 89

---

73 de Jim, N2EY


Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% growth in one year.

Except it fails to take into account hams who die who's licenses will
remain in the count for as much as 10 years afterwards. And statistics
show ham radio is a very grey hobby and getting greyer all the time.

bill
KB3YV

--
Bill Gunshannon | de-moc-ra-cy (di mok' ra see) n. Three wolves
| and a sheep voting on what's for dinner.
University of Scranton |
Scranton, Pennsylvania | #include std.disclaimer.h

On Mar 10, 9:32�pm, (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article ,
* * * * "Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
oups.com...

[snip]

Total all classes - increase of 89

---

73 de Jim, N2EY

Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% *growth in one year.

Which fits right into my prediction of 0% to 1% growth!

And I'll take 0.35% growth over a decline.

But what is completely unknown at this point is whether the growth
will continue. After the 2000 restructuring, the license numbers
climbed for about three years - and then began to decline, until now
they are well below what they were before the restructuring of 2000.


Except it fails to take into account hams who die who's licenses will
remain in the count for as much as 10 years afterwards. *

That's always been part of the statistics, Bill. It's part of the
reason I exclude licenses that are in the grace period.

And statistics
show ham radio is a very grey hobby and getting greyer all the time.

Those statistics need to be seen in the context of the US population.

First, the US population is getting older, too. More people are living
longer, having fewer children, and having them later in life.
According to the Census Bureau, the median age for the US population
(half older, half younger) is now over 39 years! From 1990 to 2000, it
rose by more than four years.

Second, while we occasionally read stories of young children earning
an amateur license, in reality there are, and have always been, very
few hams under the age of 10 years. So if we remove the under-10
population from consideration, the median age of amateurs should be
somewhere around 50 years.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:

So if we remove the under-10
population from consideration, the median age of amateurs should be
somewhere around 50 years.

Is there any real data on the median age of amateurs? Does a database
exist that contains date-of-birth so that the actual statistic could be
developed?

My personal opinion, based on looking around at gatherings of amateur
radio operators and on-the-air contacts, is that the median age is
closer to 60, at least for US ops. I wish we had real data.

73, Steve KB9X

"Steve Bonine" wrote in message
...

[snip]

My personal opinion, based on looking around at gatherings of amateur
radio operators and on-the-air contacts, is that the median age is closer
to 60, at least for US ops. I wish we had real data.


Keep in mind though that this also is not representative. It is the older
operators and retirees that have the time and money to more actively
participate in the hobby.

This is true in many activities. For example, the average age of the
members in the community band to which I belong is also in about the 50 to
60 year old range.

Dee, N8UZE

On Mar 11, 12:21�pm, Steve Bonine wrote:
wrote:
So if we remove the under-10
population from consideration, the median age of amateurs should be
somewhere around 50 years.

Is there any real data on the median age of amateurs? *Does a database
exist that contains date-of-birth so that the actual statistic could be
developed?

I don't know of any.

At various times, FCC has required date-of-birth information. But that
policy has changed over time, so the license database contains DOB
info on some, but not all, US hams, depending on when they were first
licensed. So the FCC license database is not a reliable sample or
source.

My personal opinion, based on looking around at gatherings of amateur
radio operators and on-the-air contacts, is that the median age is
closer to 60, at least for US ops.

The problem with using such observations is that they
are not reliable samples either. For example, the hams
you see at gatherings are those who have the time,
interest and resources to go to them. The younger
amateur who is raising children, taking care of elders,
busy with a career or education, etc., is much less likely
to go to a hamfest or club meeting.

Similar concerns go with on-air observations. The younger
ham with a car full of children is less likely to be operating
mobile, for example. The ham with a 60-hour-per-week day job is not
likely to be on the air at 2 PM on a weekday. Etc.


*I wish we had real data.

Me too!

The numbers I see published lack even the most
basic detail. For example, I've seen claims that
the "average age of US hams is xx years" -
without any info about how the number was
derived, whether it's the mean, median, or
some other number, nor how it compares to
the US population as a whole.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
On Mar 10, 9:32�pm, (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article ,
"Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
ups.com...
[snip]
Total all classes - increase of 89
---
73 de Jim, N2EY
Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% growth in one year.

Which fits right into my prediction of 0% to 1% growth!

And I'll take 0.35% growth over a decline.

But what is completely unknown at this point is whether the growth
will continue. After the 2000 restructuring, the license numbers
climbed for about three years - and then began to decline, until now
they are well below what they were before the restructuring of 2000.

Here are some really rough calculations for my area:


Presently licensed in the State College area:

231 - I'll have to subtract 3 club licenses

229 local State College Hams

In the past 6 months, we've had around 2 hams per month added by club
testing. Note that this includes testing under the old system.

The local University also has testing as part of one of the EE classes.
I don't have the exact numbers, or even close. They test by semester.

Given that about 12 hams have been added to the rosters by us in the
last 6 months there is at least a 1 percent growth rate - disregarding
the college group. Taking a rough estimate, they must be doing at least
as well, as the classes continue. My guess is that the final growth in
this area is around 2 percent. That is as just about at the top of the
growth that I would like to see.


We often speak of the effects that recent changes will have on the
number of new Hams coming into the fold.

I think this is a bit of a red herring attribute.

I think that growth in the service is much more dependent on what we do
to get people into it.

We've been on a recruitment effort that allows the new guys and gals to
not feel inadequate. We're teaching real basics, like how to solder, how
to read color codes on resistors. That kind of stuff. Oh yeah, and how
to operate that HF rig. I'm our club station manager, and we're turning
one corner of the building into a classroom for the new folks. And we're
being very careful to not sound like we know everything. (I don't have
to work too hard at that) ;^)

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

On Mar 14, 4:27�pm, Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote:
On Mar 10, 9:32?pm, (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article ,
* * * * "Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
groups.com...
[snip]
Total all classes - increase of 89
---
73 de Jim, N2EY
Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% *growth in one year.

Which fits right into my prediction of 0% to 1% growth!

And I'll take 0.35% growth over a decline.

However, it is foolish to look at short-term results and
assume they will continue. Day-to-day variations can be quite
large.

For example, the most recent numbers I have at hand are
for March 12, 2007. Total current FCC-issued licenses
on that date (as of 7 PM March 13) were 654,331. That's
349 less than the 654,680 on Feb 22. Of course tomorrow's
numbers may be much higher.

But what is completely unknown at this point is whether the growth
will continue. After the 2000 restructuring, the license numbers
climbed for about three years - and then began to decline, until now
they are well below what they were before the restructuring of 2000.

Here are some really rough calculations for my area:

Presently licensed in the State College area:

231 - I'll have to subtract 3 club licenses

229 local State College Hams

In the past 6 months, we've had around 2 hams per month added by club
testing. Note that this includes testing under the old system.

OK so far.

The local University also has testing as part of one of the EE classes.
I don't have the exact numbers, or even close. They test by semester.

* * * * Given that about 12 hams have been added to the rosters by us in the
last 6 months there is at least a 1 percent growth rate - disregarding
the college group. Taking a rough estimate, they must be doing at least
as well, as the classes continue. My guess is that the final growth in
this area is around 2 percent. That is as just about at the top of the
growth that I would like to see.

That's all good stuff - for the State College area.

But it may or may not be applicable to other areas. We really don't
know for sure.

* * * * We often speak of the effects that recent changes will have on the
number of new Hams coming into the fold.

* * * * I think this is a bit of a red herring attribute.

* * * * I think that growth in the service is much more dependent on what we do
to get people into it.

I agree 100%.

However, in recent decades, one of the main reasons given for
changing the license test requirements has been to stimulate
growth. Time and again, those pushing for the changes have
said they were absolutely necessary in order for the number
of US hams to grow in the future. So it's certainly worth watching
to see whether they were right or wrong.

We've been on a recruitment effort that allows the new guys and gals to
not feel inadequate. We're teaching real basics, like how to solder, how
to read color codes on resistors. That kind of stuff. Oh yeah, and how
to operate that HF rig. I'm our club station manager, and we're turning
one corner of the building into a classroom for the new folks. And we're
being very careful to not sound like we know everything. (I don't have
to work too hard at that) ;^)

This is all good stuff.Excellent work, Mike!

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote in message
ups.com...
These are the number of current,
unexpired FCC-issued amateur
radio licenses held by individuals
on the stated dates, and the
percentage of the total number
of active licenses that class contains.

---

73 de Jim, N2EY


The Changing Operating Classes
Over the past year the Technician class has increased at an average rate of
13/day.

The Tech Plus class has decreased at an average rate of 27/day.

The Novice class has decreased at an average rate of 9/day.

The General class has increased at an average rate of 7/day.

The Advanced class has decreased at an average rate of 12/day.

The Extra class has increased at an average rate of 6/day.

Club Stations have increased at an average rate of 1/day.

73, Ace - www.WH2T.com


..