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1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
These are the number of current,
unexpired FCC-issued amateur radio licenses held by individuals on the stated dates, and the percentage of the total number of active licenses that class contains. Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding. These totals do not include licenses that have expired but are in the grace period, nor do they include club, military and other station-only licenses. Effective April 15, 2000, FCC no longer issued new Novice, Technician Plus and Advanced class licenses, so the numbers of those license classes have declined steadily since then. Also since April 15, 2000, FCC has renewed all existing Technician Plus licenses as Technician. It is therefore informative to consider the totals of the two classes, since the Technician class includes a significant number of Technician Plus licenses renewed as Technician. Due the renewing of Technician Pluses as Technicians, the number of Novices now exceeds the number of Technician Pluses. On February 23, 2007, the last Morse Code test element, the 5 wpm receiving test, was eliminated as a requirement. The ARS License Numbers: As of May 14, 2000: Novice- 49,329 (7.3%) Technician - 205,394 (30.4%) Technician Plus - 128,860 (19.1%) General - 112,677 (16.7%) Advanced - 99,782 (14.8%) Extra - 78,750 (11.7%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.5%) Total all classes - 674,792 As of February 22, 2007: Novice - 22,896 (3.5%) Technician - 293,508 (44.8%) Technician Plus - 30,818 (4.7%) General - 130,138 (19.9%) Advanced - 69,050 (10.5%) Extra - 108,270 (16.5%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 324,326 (49.5%) Total all classes - 654,680 As of February 23, 2008: Novice - 20,119 (3.1%) Technician - 297,709 (45.3%) Technician Plus - 18,973 (2.9%) General - 142,812 (21.7%) Advanced - 64,883 (9.9%) Extra - 112,411 (17.1%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 316,682 (48.2%) Total all classes - 656,857 Changes: From May 14, 2000, to February 22, 2007: Novice - decrease of 26,433 Technician - increase of 88,114 Technician Plus - decrease of 98,042 General - increase of 17,461 Advanced - decrease of 30,732 Extra - increase of 29,520 Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 9,928 Total all classes - decrease of 20,112 From May 14, 2000, to February 23, 2008: Novice - decrease of 29,210 Technician - increase of 92,315 Technician Plus - decrease of 109,887 General - increase of 30,135 Advanced - decrease of 34,949 Extra - increase of 33,661 Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 17,572 Total all classes - decrease of 17,935 From February 22, 2007, to February 23, 2008: Novice - decrease of 2,777 Technician - increase of 4,201 Technician Plus - decrease of 11,845 General - increase of 12,674 Advanced - decrease of 4,217 Extra - increase of 4,141 Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 7,644 Total all classes - increase of 2,177 73 de Jim, N2EY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
wrote in message ... [snip] As of February 22, 2007: Total all classes - 654,680 As of February 23, 2008: Total all classes - 656,857 Therefore the change from Feb 22, 2007 to Feb 23, 2008 was 0.33% increase. Here are the guesses that were on the list. N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more -- Average = 0% change --- "winner" of guessing game N2EY: 1% more to 2% more -- Average = 1.5% growth --- "3rd place" in guessing game KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change -- Average = 0.5% decline --- "2nd place" in guessing game N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more -- Average = 4.0% growth KH6O: 6% more to 10% more -- Average = 8.0% growth KK6J: 12% more to 14% more -- Average = 13.0% growth KC2HMZ: 5% more -- Average = 5% growth K8BSG: 2% to 3% more -- Average = 2.5% growth Perhaps the next year will bring more growth or perhaps it won't. Dee, N8UZE |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway.
-- Alan WA4SCA |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
"Dee Flint" wrote in
: wrote in message . .. [snip] As of February 22, 2007: Total all classes - 654,680 As of February 23, 2008: Total all classes - 656,857 Therefore the change from Feb 22, 2007 to Feb 23, 2008 was 0.33% increase. Here are the guesses that were on the list. N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more -- Average = 0% change --- "winner" of guessing game N2EY: 1% more to 2% more -- Average = 1.5% growth --- "3rd place" in guessing game KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change -- Average = 0.5% decline --- "2nd place" in guessing game N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more -- Average = 4.0% growth KH6O: 6% more to 10% more -- Average = 8.0% growth KK6J: 12% more to 14% more -- Average = 13.0% growth KC2HMZ: 5% more -- Average = 5% growth K8BSG: 2% to 3% more -- Average = 2.5% growth What I think is important is that new Hams are coming on board to replace those that were lost after the big drop-off happened. That drop is very likely to have been caused by the so called "honeydo" Hams who became inactive with the ascendency of cell phones. It will take a lot of new Hams testing to replace that dropoff. It looks like we are doing it, slow and steady. Just as it should be. The focus of of this poll is to judge the impact of the elimination of element 1 on the numbers of Hams. Is it possible that given the other issue of drop offs, that it is very difficult to draw a reliable conclusion from it? Perhaps the next year will bring more growth or perhaps it won't. Hard to disagree with that! 8^) - 73 d eMike N3LI - |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
Alan WA4SCA wrote in
: So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway. Hi Alan It is so hard to determine. It is possible that no one cared, or that it just takes time for news to get out - Hams are not a noisy publicity seeking bunch. Or it could be that New hams are coming along nicely. We are testing and granting licenses at a pretty good clip. I don't have the numbers handy, Anyone out there have them? We did have that big drop off of Hams who have since moved on to cell phones - those who used the first non element 1 tested group to use repeaters for local family comms, which is probably continuing, and it will take several years and a lot of new hams just to tread water. I think we won't really know until around 7 to 10 years have passed. - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
On Feb 25, 12:09 am, Mike Coslo wrote:
We are testing and granting licenses at a pretty good clip. I don't have the numbers handy, Anyone out there have them? Easy - just go to http://www.hamdata.com/fccinfo.html For example, in the last 365 days FCC has licensed 27,211 new amateurs. I think we won't really know until around 7 to 10 years have passed. Complicated by the fact that the rules are rarely left alone for anywhere near that long. Consider the past 25 years or so: ~1983: VE system created; question pools become public, license terms doubled to 10 years 1987: Old General/Tech Element 3 split into 3A and 3B, making it easier to get a Tech ~1990: Morse Code test waivers make any class license available with 5 wpm and a doctor's note. 1991: Technician loses its code test. ~1994:Vanity call program 2000: Restructuring reduces number of available-to-new-issue license classes from 6 to 3 and reduces both code and written testing for all classes 2006: HF 'phone bands widened, particularly 75 meters. 2007: Morse Code test eliminated. On top of all that is the "anticipation effect". It takes FCC a long time to make up its mind, and that delay can have effects of its own. (If you were thinking of buying something and heard there would be a big sale next month, wouldn't you tend to put off the sale until then? Or if you heard the price was going to rise significantly, wouldn't you tend to buy right now?) The treaty requirement for Morse Code testing changed in July 2003 but it took FCC more than 3-1/2 years to get around to changing the rules. Could it be that there were some folks waiting for the change to take place? 73 de Jim, N2EY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
Alan WA4SCA wrote:
So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway. Perhaps it is just ONE factor among many. Other factors may include: * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. * We have no way of knowing whether a licensed ham is active, so there again, it will take years for inactive hams to be dropped from the license database, assuming that they take no action to renew their licenses. In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. Given the magnitude of the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent), given the various unknown factors. -- Klystron |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
Klystron wrote:
In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. Given the magnitude of the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent), given the various unknown factors. I don't claim to be a statistician but it is an easy bet that there are sufficient variables to place the current result within the error of the measurement technique. This is especially true when you add that magic word "active" to your requirement. The most reliable statistic is the number of new hams being licensed. Even for those, it's not possible to say if they're "active" (no matter what your definition might be for that term). But if 27,000 people invested the effort to obtain a license during the last year, at least we know that about 1 in 10,000 people cared enough to study for and pass the exam. 73, Steve KB9X |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
"Klystron" wrote in message ... Alan WA4SCA wrote: [snip] * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. Since most of the "outside world" doesn't and didn't have a clue about the requirements to get a ham license, publicizing the elimination of the Morse code testing would have had little to no impact. The only way it might have helped was in letting people know that ham radio exists. * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. Dee, N8UZE |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
On Feb 25, 10:19�pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
"Klystron" wrote in message ... The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FC C. That assumes an even distribution of expiration dates. That's not necessarily a valid assumption, because events like changes in the vanity call rules have resulted in a lot of expiration dates being clustered in certain years, leaving other years rather lean. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. That depends on which numbers are used. The numbers posted at the beginning of this thread include only current, unexpired licenses, not those in the grace period. So the 5 year number is correct if we assume an even distribution of license expirations by year. The numbers on hamdata.com do include licenses that are expired-but-in-the-grace-period. btw, in Part 97 FCC uses the term "expire" to mean the end of the 10 year license term, not the 2 year grace period. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
"Dee Flint" wrote:
"Klystron" wrote: [snip] * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. Since most of the "outside world" doesn't and didn't have a clue about the requirements to get a ham license, publicizing the elimination of the Morse code testing would have had little to no impact. The only way it might have helped was in letting people know that ham radio exists. I think that most people who are technically inclined to any reasonable degree have had some awareness of ham radio, at some point in their lives. Most were deterred from becoming involved in it by the need to jump through the hoop of learning a useless and obsolete "skill" (yes, I know, you probably don't see it as such) that they found repellent. Now that that hoop has been eliminated, the reason that they never became hams has been eliminated. Once that word gets around, I believe that many technophiles will slowly gravitate to ham radio (as I did). * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. Actually, that would bring it up to 7 years (5 year "expected value" on the random variable of 'term of license remaining at time of death' plus 2 years of grace). -- Klystron (a RECENT no-code Extra and GROL w/ Radar) |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
On Feb 26, 8:03 am, Klystron wrote:
"Dee Flint" wrote: "Klystron" wrote: I think that most people who are technically inclined to any reasonable degree have had some awareness of ham radio, at some point in their lives. Agreed. But new hams don't just come from the "technically inclined". In fact, in many cases what first interested someone in technology was ham radio. There's also the issue of "old/inaccurate information". I have come across people who were knowledgeable about ham radio 30-40 years ago, but thought it had died out in the 1970s or so. Or who thought that the equipment had to be large, expensive and power-consuming. Others thought ham radio and cb were the same thing, or that cb had replaced ham radio (!) Most were deterred from becoming involved in it by the need to jump through the hoop of learning a useless and obsolete "skill" (yes, I know, you probably don't see it as such) that they found repellent. Whatever your view of the *test*, Morse Code is still in wide use in amateur radio. Therefore, by definition, skill in its use is neither useless nor obsolete for hams. Now that that hoop has been eliminated, the reason that they never became hams has been eliminated. Once that word gets around, I believe that many technophiles will slowly gravitate to ham radio (as I did). Of course more new hams would be a Good Thing. However, the relatively slow growth of the past year, while welcome, means that either there aren't so many people out there who were repelled by the test, or that they haven't yet found out it's gone. Or both. I will continue to post these numbers in an effort to document what's happening. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. Actually, that would bring it up to 7 years (5 year "expected value " on the random variable of 'term of license remaining at time of death' plus 2 years of grace). No, 6 years is the right number if the grace period is being considered. Here's why: If the license term is 10 years and the grace period is 2 years and the likelihood of a ham dying is the same for any given year, then the median value is halfway through that combined 12 year period. Which is 6 years. IOW, all else being equal, half of the hams who die in the 12 year license-term-plus-grace-period interval will do so in the first 6 years, and half will do so in the second 6 years. If the grace period is not considered, the median value happens at 5 years. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
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1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
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1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
On Feb 26, 1:37 pm, Klystron wrote:
wrote: Whatever your view of the *test*, Morse Code is still in wide use in amateur radio. Therefore, by definition, skill in its use is neither useless nor obsolete for hams. Of course, that sort of tautology would still hold if there were an FCC regulation that all ham radio conversation must take place in Latin and all new hams must pass a test in Latin. That doesn't follow. There isn't a regulation that radio amateurs must use Morse Code on the air. Yet they do - by choice. So having the skills to use it is neither useless nor obsolete. No, 6 years is the right number if the grace period is being considered. Here's why: If the license term is 10 years and the grace period is 2 years and the likelihood of a ham dying is the same for any given year, then the median value is halfway through that combined 12 year period. Which is 6 years. IOW, all else being equal, half of the hams who die in the 12 year license-term-plus-grace-period interval will do so in the first 6 years, and half will do so in the second 6 years. If the grace period is not considered, the median value happens at 5 years. I disagree. All hams will get the full 2 year grace period AFTER they die (assuming that the FCC is not told of their deaths). It is a constant, not a variable. 'Term of license remaining at time of death' is the only variable. It has an expected value of 5 years. The full grace period is added to that by default. There's a mistake in your reasoning, I think. Put another way, my assumption is that all hams will renew their licenses for as long as they live. That's not valid assumption, though. The renewal window is 90 days before expiration but two years after expiration. A considerable number of hams renew in the grace period. How many? I do not know Even if they die the day before the end of their final term, they will still get the full 2 year grace. Of course. But at the same time, they could renew on the last day of the grace period, too. For your model to hold, they would have to allow their final term of license to expire and then live on into the grace period. Which does happen. Some hams just forget, others need time to figure out the new regs, etc. 90 days isn't that long of a time. And some just lose interest, for a variety of reasons besides death. This isn't a new thing - read some ham's bios, and more than a few talk about how work, family, and other things crowded out ham radio for them at some point, they sold their equipment and let their license expire, and then came back years later. From the standpoint of license numbers, it doesn't matter if a ham dies or just lets the license expire, the same effect happens. Actually, we need not consider the grace period at all, because we have sources of numbers for the current, nonexpired numbers of licenses. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
Klystron wrote:
Alan WA4SCA wrote: So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway. Perhaps it is just ONE factor among many. Other factors may include: * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. It would be interesting for sure. Ham Radio is one of those niche activities that isn't geared toward the average person. And that really isn't all that bad a thing. Some people pick hobbies because a lot of other people are doing the same thing, Others pick ones like amateur astronomy or Ham radio because its what they enjoy. At any rate, its all good, I think. * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? I know that that is a bit of a non sequitar, but the thought just crossed my mind. 8^) In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. In an overall sense, it is a little hard to come to a definitive idea of how many are active, and most analysis only gives us rough trends. I am pleased that the FCC is issuing a goodly number of new licenses, and that at least the big dropoff is at least negated for the present. I personally am happy with only a small increase in numbers. Given the magnitude of the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent), given the various unknown factors. I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
"Klystron" wrote in message ... "Dee Flint" wrote: "Klystron" wrote: [snip] I think that most people who are technically inclined to any reasonable degree have had some awareness of ham radio, at some point in their lives. Most were deterred from becoming involved in it by the need to jump through the hoop of learning a useless and obsolete "skill" (yes, I know, you probably don't see it as such) that they found repellent. Now that that hoop has been eliminated, the reason that they never became hams has been eliminated. Once that word gets around, I believe that many technophiles will slowly gravitate to ham radio (as I did). That would only be true if they knew what the requirements are. Very few were aware that Morse code was required. No one is deterred by a requirement that they don't even know exists. Dee, N8UZE |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
Michael Coslo wrote on Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:52:59 EST:
Klystron wrote: Alan WA4SCA wrote: * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? I know that that is a bit of a non sequitar, but the thought just crossed my mind. 8^) Please define 'older folks.' That remark seems to me to be verging too close to that of a confrontational remark. :-( The practice of operating a radio has never been any sort of test of athletic ability or that of stamina or physical strength only possible by those in the 20s and 30s age groups. The 25th of February 2008 was the first anniversary of my passing my first amateur radio license test. That day was close to the 51st anniversary of my passing my first commercial radiotelephone operator's test at age 23. I was 74 on 25 Feb 07 and it was no more difficult nor easier a year ago than it was to pass a similar FCC test 52 years ago. Since I've kept daily statistics pages from both www.arrl.org and www.hamdata.org, here's some items of information of the past year (25 February, 2007 to 2008) from Hamdata that isn't reported on the ARRL license stats page: No Longer Licensed [Expired] : 26,127 NEW : 27,211 (positive offset by 1,084) Class Changes : 32,021 License numbers, total of ALL amateur radio licenses - 2 July 2003 : 737,938 25 Feb 2008 : 722,588 (deficit of 15,350) About the only thing one can infer from those is that there IS a small increase in newcomers versus expirees...but the total of all licenses is still short of what it was about 4 1/2 years ago. At the present rate of license totals increase, that deficit will not be offset for another 15 to 16 years. The number of existing-license class changes has been larger for this past year than previous one-year periods. That seems to be the major outfall of the latest change in regulations for amateur radio licenses. In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. In an overall sense, it is a little hard to come to a definitive idea of how many are active, and most analysis only gives us rough trends. The word ACTIVE has two meanings as used in this thread. The 'active' amateur radio licensees in the FCC use of the word refers to the license itself; i.e., whether it is valid for legal operation of a transmitter as required by a particular radio service. The word 'active' as many use it elsewhere refers to whether or not one USES a license for the purpose of transmitting (as required by law). There are no definitive statistics on USE insofar as an amateur radio license that I've seen. I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. I disagree. One of the major uses of the first major computer systems was searching, sorting, and compiling totals of some programmed-in sorted-for subject. That was a selling point for the old IBM punched-card tabulator in electro-mechanical IT operations of the 1940s. Today it is greatly aided by the mass memories of 250 GB to 2 TB hard drives...which anyone can buy for reasonable cost off-the-shelf at places like Fry's Electronics. Sorting and searching programming methods have been well-known to IT programmers for half a century. The FCC daily and weekly database files are all available to anyone with high-speed access capabilities. Each is so large in size that using a dial-up connection would require about a half day to download. ALL statistical website providers use the SAME database so none is more 'official' than others. What the statistics providers DO with their data is up to them. There isn't any sampling or 'plus or minus percentage' in regard to the FCC license class information in its database files. It isn't a result of polling of any kind. It is data direct from the only agency that grants amateur radio licenses in the USA. Totals are what they are. 73, Len AF6AY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
On Feb 26, 2:52�pm, Michael Coslo wrote:
Klystron wrote: Alan WA4SCA wrote: Ham Radio is one of those niche activities that isn't geared toward the average person. And that really isn't all that bad a thing. "Radio for its own sake" (which is what amateur radio is really all about) has never been a mainstream sort of thing. Just look at the number of licensed US hams compared to the US population at any time since licensing began. At any rate, its all good, I think. Yep. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? It's great that people of all ages can be hams. Young, old, middleage, newcomers, oldtimers, etc. In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. IMHO, what *is* statistically significant is that what was a slow decline has turned into a slow increase. What will be interesting is if it continues long-term. I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. There's also the problem of what constitutes an "active" ham. Obviously someone who is dead or who never gets on the air or otherwise participates isn't "active". But what about the ham who operates a few contests a year? Or the ham who does a lot of building and experimenting, but little operating (and whose operating is mostly to check out the latest project)? The ham whose activity is teaching classes, running VE sessions, Elmering (in person and online), writing, etc.? The ham whose focus is public service? Etc. All sorts of activity - and it's all good! 73 de Jim, N2EY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
AF6AY wrote:
[...] There isn't any sampling or 'plus or minus percentage' in regard to the FCC license class information in its database files. It isn't a result of polling of any kind. It is data direct from the only agency that grants amateur radio licenses in the USA. Totals are what they are. You missed my point. The figures for new licenses and expired licenses are, no doubt, perfectly accurate. However, those quantities may be eclipsed by two other variables that we cannot quantify: 1) The number of hams who have died but have not yet been dropped from the rolls because the FCC does not know that they are dead 2) The number of hams who have stopped turning on their radios -- Klystron |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
AF6AY wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote on Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:52:59 EST: Klystron wrote: Alan WA4SCA wrote: * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? I know that that is a bit of a non sequitar, but the thought just crossed my mind. 8^) Please define 'older folks.' That remark seems to me to be verging too close to that of a confrontational remark. :-( The practice of operating a radio has never been any sort of test of athletic ability or that of stamina or physical strength only possible by those in the 20s and 30s age groups. That pretty much answers your question, Len. Lots of people who don't "get around very well" can still have a blast. And fortunately there are usually other Hams who can help with the more physical things like putting up antennas, climbing towers, and the like. About the only thing one can infer from those is that there IS a small increase in newcomers versus expirees...but the total of all licenses is still short of what it was about 4 1/2 years ago. At the present rate of license totals increase, that deficit will not be offset for another 15 to 16 years. Pretty much my take on it too. snip I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. I disagree. One of the major uses of the first major computer systems was searching, sorting, and compiling totals of some programmed-in sorted-for subject. Perhaps I should have been more clear. It is hard to determine if a Ham is active or not by just being licensed. An active license is not necessarily a sign of an active ham. Even trying to define "active" is difficult. In that instance, I was referring to Klystron's "active". - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
Klystron turned on his beam supply Wed, 27 Feb 2008
13:14:52 EST: AF6AY wrote: [...] There isn't any sampling or 'plus or minus percentage' in regard to the FCC license class information in its database files. It isn't a result of polling of any kind. It is data direct from the only agency that grants amateur radio licenses in the USA. Totals are what they are. You missed my point. Not quite, :-), I was replying to Mike Coslo. :-) The figures for new licenses and expired licenses are, no doubt, perfectly accurate. However, those quantities may be eclipsed by two other variables that we cannot quantify: 1) The number of hams who have died but have not yet been dropped from the rolls because the FCC does not know that they are dead 2) The number of hams who have stopped turning on their radios The delay of 'knowing who died' in regards to RADIO AMATEUR licensees is only two years...the grace period. After that and no renewal, the license expires. LICENSE expiration is a known as far as the FCC database is concerned. Since amateur radio is a HOBBY, not a profession, there's NO requirement that anyone 'report in' on someone's condition. Some become disenchanted with the activity and just quit or have too many other activities to continue or might be laid up with some kind of illness. It was never a requirement to continue being an amateur radio licensee forever once granted a license...no more so than being interested in radio long ago was a mandate to get an amateur radio license. :-) In my opinion, the granted license totals - even if holding steady despite general population increases - serves as an indicator in the USA that the amateur radio service will continue among all the other radio services here for the near future. So, the licensee totals have dropped 2% in about 4 1/2 years since mid-2003. The last year has seen a 0.15% increase in totals, a rather insignificant gain, but a gain nonetheless. Many years ago at a small microwave company, all of us were curious at the absence of one technician who just didn't show up for work. The small company, busy at keeping afloat, didn't investigate until two months had passed. Turned out the guy just got tired of what he was doing and 'quit' without notifying anyone. Later, at a larger corporation, we noticed that one engineer didn't show up for two weeks. Corporate personnel department was notified he'd been killed in an automobile accident, his family too involved with that tragedy to notify his employer. There's many reasons why someone stops doing what they were doing besides such extremes. 73, Len AF6AY |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
"AF6AY" wrote in message ... [snip] The delay of 'knowing who died' in regards to RADIO AMATEUR licensees is only two years...the grace period. After that and no renewal, the license expires. LICENSE expiration is a known as far as the FCC database is concerned. Actually if a person died the day they received their license, it could be 12 years before it showed up not two if no one bothers to report it. Dee, N8UZE |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
Dee Flint wrote:
Actually if a person died the day they received their license, it could be 12 years before it showed up not two if no one bothers to report it. Now that would be sad! :^( - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
"Dee Flint" wrote:
"AF6AY" wrote in message [snip] The delay of 'knowing who died' in regards to RADIO AMATEUR licensees is only two years...the grace period. After that and no renewal, the license expires. LICENSE expiration is a known as far as the FCC database is concerned. Actually if a person died the day they received their license, it could be 12 years before it showed up not two if no one bothers to report it. Dee is correct. Some hams may die with 10 years left on their licenses. For others, 9 years may remain. For still others, 8 years may remain (and so on). For the mathematically inclined, the "expected value" equals the sum of [i as i goes from 0 days to 3652 days] divided by 3652 days (the number of days in 10 years, including 2 leap years). The result will be in days, so divide by 365 to get years (the answer is 5 years). Add a 2 year grace period and the AVERAGE ham will remain on the rolls for seven years after his death. When you consider the age demographics of ham radio, standard actuarial tables may lead you to conclude that we are probably in the middle of a large die off. My guess is that the number of dead hams still on the books is far greater then the thousand or so net gain that comes from simply subtracting expired licenses from new license grants. Then there is the matter of hams who no longer turn on their radios, whose number is unknowable. -- Klystron |
1 Year Later - ARS License Numbers Feb 2008
On Feb 27, 9:23 pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
Actually if a person died the day they received their license, it could be 12 years before it showed up not two if no one bothers to report it. As N3LI wrote, that would be sad! However, when it showed up in the totals is a matter of which totals you use. If you use numbers that include the entire FCC database, such as hamdata.com, you get both unexpired, current licenses and expired-but- in-the-grace-period licenses, and it takes 12 years before an unreported death shows up. But if you use numbers that include only the unexpired, current licenses, such as ARRL and AH0A, it takes 10 years before an unreported death shows up. Note that the terms "expire" and "expiration" refer to the end of the 10 year license term, and do not include the grace period. That's not my definition, it's FCC's definition. Hamdata.com uses the term "no longer hams" to indicate licenses which have reached the end of the grace period without being renewed. Of course in real life there are several factors which complicate the issue and make simple conjectures inaccurate: 1) An unknown number of deaths *are* reported to FCC by family members. Often this is done so the SK's callsign can be transferred to another amateur in the family, or a club. 2) An unknown number of amateurs renew in the grace period. 3) Not all licenses which expire are the result of death. It is not unknown for a licensed amateur to lose interest and let the license not only expire but run past the end of the grace period. Years later, the ex-ham's interest is revitalized and s/he gets a new license. This was probably more common in the days of 5 year licenses but one still encounters recent "retread" hams today. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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