From: Leo on Sun, Feb 25 2007 10:57 am

On Tue, 13 Feb 2007 22:15:28 -0500, Leo wrote:
On 13 Feb 2007 16:43:31 -0800, wrote:

On Feb 13, 5:13?pm, Leo wrote:
On Sat, 10 Feb 2007 15:12:59 -0500, Leo wrote:
On 8 Feb 2007 18:01:57 -0800, wrote:


The Technician class is *not* now bigger
than all other US license classes combined.
And if present trends continue, it never will be.

Perhaps! Perhaps not.

Hmmm.....no rebuttal comments regarding the points listed above for 12
days now.

Hope you enjoyed the math lesson - we'll do it again soon!

I don't think he did...probably because he can't
control the subject being argued, especially the
comparisons he insists on using. :-)

Just in looking at www.hamdata.com figures from 22 Feb
to 25 Feb, the barest trend might be showing up.

Overall USA totals went from 721,781 (22nd) to 721,745
(25th), a loss of 42. That was despite a tiny peak on
the 24th to 721,839. Club calls increased by 6 from
10,349 (22nd) to 10,355 (25th)...so thats a small
stabilizing influence. :-)

The number of no-code-test Techs went from 311,851 (22nd)
to 311,948 (25th) for a gain of 97. That despite a drop
of 30 between 311,978 (24th) to 311,048 (25th) which may
explain the slight rise in General class: 142,031 (22nd)
to 142,043 (25th) for an increase of 12. Extra class went
from 111,464 (22nd) to 111,497 (25th) for a gain of 33.
That raises a question of just WHERE did those increases
come from?

His (apparent) home-made software just doesn't tell him
from where. He keeps implying that "no-code-test Techs
are all dropping out after 12 years" but yet those same
numbers are RISING. Since that is apparent, then the
number of new licensees coming in that way must be LARGER
than the 97 gain indicated by raw hamdata.com numbers!

At present data on the 25th, the total of no-code-test
Techs to Tech-Plus is 352,210 (40,262 Tech Plus). The
number of INDIVIDUAL licensees (less Club calls) on
the 25th is 711,390. Combined, Tech and Tech-Plus are
49.51% of the total. Yes, that is NOT 50.01% but it is
so damn close to 50% that only an unreasonable pedant
would make a case for it "not being larger!" :-)

What hasn't been made clear is EXACTLY where and with
what Miccolis gets his data, data that he posts with
implied "accuracy." I just go to www.hamdata.com and
get their raw numbers...no sweat, no bother tying up a
line (one needs DSL or equivalent to handle multi-MB
files daily) and there is inherent TRUST with their
numbers. On the other hand, there ain't no "trust" with
Miccolis data. Does he use raw FCC database files and
do sorting/tabulating from that? Or does he crib from
some other, as yet unidentified source?

Miccolis claims to "know" which and how many licensees
are still within the 10-year license period. If he can
"know" that, then a few days of raw data comparison can
show "upgrades" from a "lower" class to a "newer." That
would be a good indicator of WHERE the changes come from.
He doesn't do that. He just makes noises implying that
"all the decreases" are coming from the no-code-test
class "dropouts." Yet the raw hamdata numbers show
increases in that class. He hasn't been able to explain
that yet.

Miccolis keeps talking about the "not counting" those in
the 2-year grace period. He hasn't explained HOW he
determines this. It is possible to determine since the
data fields ARE there in the database...just as there are
indicators of not having been licensed before, thus are
newbie entries. The once-newbies in no-code-test Tech
who actually drop out after 12 years can be determined
but all we get from him is the unquantified general-case
ambiguous stuff about "they are just dropping out." :-(

Regardez,
LA