Change in ARS numbers Pool
 

Anyone else want to add a guess?


1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION
date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that
date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.

Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a
week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my
blocked senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have
your guess submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Guesses submitted:
N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more
KH6O: 6% more to 10% more
KK6J: 12% more to 14% more
KC2HMZ: 5% more
K8BSG: 2% to 3% more --- Added 02/18/06

Dee, N8UZE

Change in ARS numbers Pool
 

On Mar 3, 7:11�pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

*2) *Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
*same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.

Miccolis hasn't explained HOW he got the data. The "same
principles" as NOTHING would be the thing. Does he do
a download of the publicly-available 80+ MB daily database
file from the FCC? What are his totalization conditionals
for deriving his class totals? What kind of computer program
does he use to search and sort 700K+ data entries?

There IS data from a number of websites doing that such as
www.nm7d.org and www.hamdata.com and hamcall.net.
Even the ARRL supplies totals albeit in an indirect way!

For contests a disinterest third-party source of figures is
better as a reference.

73, LA