60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

[Reposted from earlier posting in Rec.Radio.Amateur.Moderated]

U.S. License Changes over two 60 Day Periods from www.hamdata.com:

Hamdata information sorted from FCC publicly-available database of 24
April 2007
and [in square brackets] 24 January 2007:

New Licensees 2,730 [1,342]

Expirations 2,314 [2,101]

Class Changes 4,342 [ 985 ]

Call Changes 1,130 [ 214 ]

All Updates* 15,038 [16,536]

* Renewals, address or name changes, plus other administrative
changes.

The number of new licensees have approximately doubled since the
advent
of code testing cessation on 23 February 2007 compared to the December
2006 to January 2007 60-day period when code testing was required.

The number of license class changes have approximately quadrupled
since
the advent of code testing cessation on 23 February 2007. The number
of
callsign changes have almost quintupled.

Expirations are approximately the same. In the last 60 days the
number of
new licensees is greater than the number of expirations; for December
2006
and January 2007 the number of new licensees were less than
expirations.

The overall losses of all licensees (all classes including Club and
Grace
Period) over the previous two years were 11,143 [11.528]. This is
approximately the same for each period.

73, Len AF6AY

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

AF6AY wrote:

...
The overall losses of all licensees (all classes including Club and
Grace
Period) over the previous two years were 11,143 [11.528]. This is
approximately the same for each period.

73, Len AF6AY


The data is most likely skewed because of inherent errors in the
"license census" tally.

These errors are, again, most likely because of the "baby boom bubble"
which is working its' way through the system (large numbers of amateurs
expiring and leaving the planet.)

And, unless the death of an amateur is reported to the FCC, it can take
a bit for the lost license (or deceased ham) to show up (lag time.)

Frankly, as under-reported as the cessation of CW testing is, I am
surprised there has been the increase in new licenses we are seeing.

Perhaps we will get lucky and something not even on our "radar screens"
will happen and promote untold new numbers of hams ... the
intellectual/college crowd might be made licensees if the present image
of amateur radio is changed and somehow made to relate to the
intellectually gifted/inclined.

A few articles in computer/technology magazines describing projects
which meld computers (both hardware and software based) with amateur
communications certainly would not hurt ...

Regards,
JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

AF6AY wrote:

...
The overall losses of all licensees (all classes including Club and
Grace
Period) over the previous two years were 11,143 [11.528]. This is
approximately the same for each period.

73, Len AF6AY


One more thing, perhaps it would be good to further sub-categorize this
data into two main and distinct groups:

1) Those WITH false teeth.

2) Those WITHOUT false teeth.

GRIN
JS

60 Days Since the kb9rqz punce test
 

"John Smith I" wrote in message
...
AF6AY wrote:

...
The overall losses of all licensees (all classes including Club and
Grace
Period) over the previous two years were 11,143 [11.528]. This is
approximately the same for each period.

73, Len AF6AY


One more thing, perhaps it would be good to further sub-categorize this
data into two main and distinct groups:

1) Those WITH false teeth.

2) Those WITHOUT false teeth.

GRIN
JS

Indeed or mak taht four destinkt catergroies

1) Those WITH false teeth.

2) Those WITHOUT false teeth.

3) tohse taht are indeed two stoopid two pass teh code test

4) them taht indeed hav a shemale wife



--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 26, 11:00�am, John Smith I wrote:
AF6AY wrote:

* ...

The overall losses of all licensees (all classes including Club and
Grace
Period) over the previous two years were 11,143 *[11.528]. *This is
approximately the same for each period.

73, Len *AF6AY

The data is most likely skewed because of inherent errors in the
"license census" tally.

JS, there is no "census" of numbers on the www.hamdata.com site.
They take their data download from the FCC's huge amateur radio
database file and sort that. That's what the ARRL does, that's what
QRZ does, that's what everyone else does.

The FCC database has specific fields indicating who is NEW and
the duration of all granted licensees. Adding two years to the
given expiration date is a trivial program task. The two years are
for the grace period.

The FCC does the record keeping for the licenses the FCC grants.

No "baby boom" enters this simple picture of numbers, no inferences.

There are just licensees in the U.S. amateur radio service.

73, Len AF6AY

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

AF6AY wrote:

...
No "baby boom" enters this simple picture of numbers, no inferences.

There are just licensees in the U.S. amateur radio service.

73, Len AF6AY


If you expect to find a live ham behind each and every ham, don't ...
friend of mine still has his license--from the grave :-(

JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

John Smith I wrote:

err ...

Change:

If you expect to find a live ham behind each and every ham, don't ...


to:

If you expect to find a live ham behind each and every LICENSE, don't ...

JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 26, 5:29?pm, John Smith I wrote:
John Smith I wrote:

err ...

Change:

If you expect to find a live ham behind each and every ham, don't ...

to:

If you expect to find a live ham behind each and every LICENSE, don't ...

I don't. FCC database records only have licensees...unless, in a rare
event, a family member corresponds with the FCC that a licensee is
gone.

My wife and I had ham the other night. I hope it wasn't anyone you
knew...

73, Len AF6AY




JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 26, 11:03�am, John Smith I wrote:
AF6AY wrote:

* ...

The overall losses of all licensees (all classes including Club and
Grace
Period) over the previous two years were 11,143 *[11.528]. *This is
approximately the same for each period.

73, Len *AF6AY

One more thing, perhaps it would be good to further sub-categorize this
data into two main and distinct groups:

1) Those WITH false teeth.

2) Those WITHOUT false teeth.

Now we get into difficulties such as with crown work...which make
a tooth both real and "false." :-)

Bite that, big guy... :-)

73, Len AF6AY

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

AF6AY wrote:

...
Bite that, big guy... :-)

73, Len AF6AY


Len:

ROFLOL!!!

No offense meant, my family had teeth of chalk--I would be a member of
those WITH false teeth (darn moms' genetics!) ...

Regards,
JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 27, 5:53�am, John Smith I wrote:
AF6AY wrote:

* ...

Bite that, big guy... *:-)

73, Len *AF6AY

Len:

ROFLOL!!!

No offense meant, my family had teeth of chalk--I would be a member of
those WITH false teeth (darn moms' genetics!) ...

No offense taken. However, it is habitual with the adolescent mindset
of many in here who turned this newsgroup into a rotting pile of
excrement to constantly get on anyone's case who vaguely mentions some
physical or away-from-"normal" sexual anything.

This thread started out with some simple statistics based on FCC
database information that ALL the amateur statistics sites use (even
the ARRL). The main thing it showed for the first two months since
the end of license exam code testing was UPGRADING of existing
licnsees. There were NO hordes of "unwashed CB types' entering
amateur radio as so many of the pro-code olde-tymers kept saying
"would happen." Note: The pro-coders kept saying that, the no-code-
test advocates did not.

There is some hint of a slight increase in newcomers to amateur radio,
but only a hint. That could be a statistical anamoly (nothing to do
with tooth enamel). Or it might be an actual boost of interest.

The number of expirations remains relatively the same, these last 60
days or the 60 days prior to about the end of January (when General
and Extra still required a code test). The overall licensee totals
remain relatively static yet the population of the USA keeps
increasing.

Sorry, but I had to put some "teeth" into the subject of this
thread...

73, Len AF6AY

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

AF6AY wrote:

...
Sorry, but I had to put some "teeth" into the subject of this
thread...

73, Len AF6AY

One thing is a certainty, the death rate of baby boomers is
accelerating. Although it is hard to pick any certain date to pin point
the start of the baby boom, around 1940 might be a good pick.

2007 minus 1940 equals 67. The top of the bell curve is only a handful
of years away ...

Since death and taxes are a certainty, you already know what is coming
.... grabs-teeth-out-of-cup-and-flashes-'em-at-Len

Regards,
JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 27, 1:07�pm, John Smith I wrote:
AF6AY wrote:

* ...

Sorry, but I had to put some "teeth" into the subject of this
thread...

73, Len *AF6AY

One thing is a certainty, the death rate of baby boomers is
accelerating. *Although it is hard to pick any certain date to pin point
the start of the baby boom, around 1940 might be a good pick.

Be that as it may, it's been implied to me that knowledge and
skill at morse code is an almost guarantor of immortality!
Of course, that was before a couple of pro-coder regulars in
here died. shrug :-)

Also, I've been told that nearly all the expirations of US ham
licenses were all due to the no-code-test Technician class
licensees reaching the end of their 12-year license span and
quitting. That doesn't jibe with the "SK" page listing in QST,
but those pro-coders just won't quit on their mythology.

grabbing my dentist and forcing his arm to wave bye-bye...

73, Len AF6AY

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

"John Smith I" wrote in message
...

[snip]

One thing is a certainty, the death rate of baby boomers is accelerating.
Although it is hard to pick any certain date to pin point the start of the
baby boom, around 1940 might be a good pick.

2007 minus 1940 equals 67. The top of the bell curve is only a handful of
years away ...

I was always under the impression that the "baby boom" was considered to
have started AFTER World War II not before it.

Dee, N8UZE

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

Dee Flint wrote:

...
I was always under the impression that the "baby boom" was considered to
have started AFTER World War II not before it.

Dee, N8UZE



Dee:

We can certainly BOTH agree on that!

Hey, what kinda wine is that, I'll take me a glass, please? :-P

P.S. Good 'ta see 'ya here :)

Warm regards,
JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

John Smith I wrote:

...

Anyway, you are correct, after the war the "big bubble" formed.

The time-line is something like this:

America declares war on japan: 12/8/41
German forces in Italy surrender: 4/19/45
Germany surrenders: 05/8/45
Japan surrenders: 09/2/45

Our whole involvement in the war (other than supplying
weapons/intelligence to our allies) is about 3 years and 3 months.

Rather amazing really, two nations beaten in a heartbeat, now we can't
even nuke one small middle east country, go figure. No men left like
that American president, military leaders and general population with
cajones ...

However, historians note a small increase in birth to death rates just
before or at the war start. Advancements in manufacturing,
transportation, cities, etc. are usually noted as the cause. How much
this all interacted with the war to increase population growth is still
debated in the halls of academia ...

Regards,
JS

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 27, 11:44 pm, John Smith I wrote:


Rather amazing really, two nations beaten in a heartbeat, now we can't
even nuke one small middle east country, go figure.


Is America at war? No, the Army is at war. America is at the mall.

73, RDW

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 27, 3:49�pm, wrote:
On Apr 27, 11:44 pm, John Smith I wrote:

Rather amazing really, two nations beaten in a heartbeat, now we can't
even nuke one small middle east country, go figure. *

Is America at war?

Actually, technically, yes. Has been for 54 years. The Korean
War went into some curious "forever truce" in July, 1953, and
that hasn't been settled yet. Over ten times the casualties in
Korea than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

73, Len AF6AY

ex-RA16408336 (1952-1960)

60 Days Since Code Test Cessation Compared
 

On Apr 27, 8:32 pm, AF6AY wrote:
On Apr 27, 3:49?pm, wrote:

On Apr 27, 11:44 pm, John Smith I wrote:

Rather amazing really, two nations beaten in a heartbeat, now we can't
even nuke one small middle east country, go figure. ?

Is America at war?

Actually, technically, yes. Has been for 54 years. The Korean
War went into some curious "forever truce" in July, 1953, and
that hasn't been settled yet. Over ten times the casualties in
Korea than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

sorry Korea was never exactly a war nor was Vietnam or the current
that is in large one the problems We can't even call war war anymore

73, Len AF6AY

ex-RA16408336 (1952-1960)