Alun wrote in message .. .
Mike Coslo wrote in
:

Alun wrote:

Mike Coslo wrote in
:

Alun wrote:

The French have been waitng for some time for a government minister
to sign the rule change abolishing their code test. It was signed on
the 4th, and will take effect when published in the official journal,
probably either on the 14th or 21st of May, 2004.

Have any numbers on the impact of this Morse code abolition? The
earliest countries to dump Morse should have some numbers that reflect
the change one way or the other.

- Mike KB3EIA -

What sort of numbers?

1) Numbers of new hams who got licenses since the code test was
removed, compared to the number who got licenses for a similar time
period before it was removed.

2) Numbers of new hams who got HF licenses since the code test was
removed, compared to the number who got HF licenses for a similar time
period before it was removed.

3) Numbers of existing hams who upgraded to HF licenses since the code
test was removed, compared to the number who upgraded for a similar
time period before it was removed.

4) Numbers of new hams who actually get on the air, by band and mode,
since the code test was removed, compared to the number who did so for
a similar time period before it was removed.

All their no-coders are licenced for HF, and we
could probably find out how many there are, but is that what you
meant?

See above.

Violations of rules by no-coders? We have that number - it's
zero.

Do we really have that number, or is it just "we haven't heard of
any"? Sounds a lot like the BPL folks who say "we haven't gotten any
interference complaints".

Hmm, I though it would be obvious. How many new hams are licensed
in the countries that have eliminated the Morse code requirement

NOw that they are rid of the evil of Morse testing, one would
think
that many new hams are coming into the fold, so to speak.

See above.

All these countries had no-code licences. So now they can use modes other
than CW on HF without having to learn CW, which is finally as it should be.
Most of the true radio enthusiasts will get whatever licence they can, even
if it doesn't allow them to do what they really want.

I'm not sure at all what you mean.

I always used to meet people who told me they would get a licence but for
the code test.

Me too.

I've also met people who told me they would get a license but for the
*written* test. Or the high cost (to them) of equipment. Or the size
of the antennas. Or the time/money/space/work required to set up an
antenna.

I've also met people who told me they would get a license but for
their job, spouse, kids, extended family, living situation, school
situation, other commitments, etc., etc., etc.

I think we could have had them in the hobby if we had
abolished code testing 20 years ago, but I think it is too late and we have
blown it.

The Technician lost its code test more than 13 years ago. It's been
possible to get full HF privileges in the USA since 1990 with just a 5
wpm code test (medical waivers, then restructuring).

Most of all, code testing could not have been fully eliminated 20
years ago because of S25.5. Nor even 20 months ago.

Nobody is clamouring to becme a ham anymore.

Sure they are - otherwise the number of hams would be dropping like a
stone.

Let's do some math:

There are about 682,000 US hams right now. That's currently licensed
individuals, not clubs or folks in the grace period.

Suppose the *average* ham career lasts 40years. Yes we all know plenty
of folks who have been licensed longer, but there are also folks who
will have to reach their 100th birthday to do that.

If the average ham career lasts 40years, it works out that 2.5% of the
ham population drops out per year. 2.5% of 682,000 is 17,050, so we
must get 17,050 new hams per year just to keep up with the losses.

You can work out the numbers for any given "ham career" time.

Now of course it's not enough just to stay even. But still more
important is the number of *active* hams.


73 de Jim, N2EY