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From: Dee Flint on Jul 28, 6:04 pm
wrote in message Dee Flint wrote: In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear that they expect any Tech not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs) to take the General exam and upgrade to get HF privileges. Interesting - in many ways! For one thing, there would still be two kinds of Technicians - those with HF and those without. Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more privileges, they show that development by upgrading. "...NPRM bore down heavily..."? Heh, you must have a different copy than I do. :-) Did your copy include the mailing address of the "amateur community?" :-) But more telling would be how many Techs would get Generals or Extras in order to get HF. I think that will indeed be very interesting. I was plotting the data from the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the Extra. Oh, ohhhh...the AH0A website is hardly an "objective" one considering that Joe Speroni is a resolute PRO-Code Test Advocate! "The only class that is steadily increasing significantly" is Extra?!? At present, the Amateur Extra class is 109,543 or 15.17% of the total of individual licensees (source: www.hamdata.com, FCC numbers for 0416 UTC on 28 July 2005). In two years' time, the Amateur Extra class licensees increased by 3,518. In that same time, Technician class licensees increased by 18,617. [Tech has been increasing about nine thousand per year since Restructuring] Are you, as an "engineering pro" trying to flim-flam that the ratio between Technician and Extra of 5.31:1 means the "Extra is increasing more rapidly?!?" The "club" call license numbers increased by 1,050 in two years or approximately 12.3%...which would make THAT category more likely as the "most rapidly growing." We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the 5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many Techs upgrade and how many don't. My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while. As of 0416 UTC, 28 Jul 05, there are 349,936 Technician and Technician Plus licensees out of a total of 722,083 individual licensees (exclusive of 9.611 club calls). That is 48.46% of the total individual U.S. amateur radio licensees. If one-quarter of the present Technicians "upgrades" then that will be about 86,484. Yes, I'd imagine THAT would increase the work of the VEs...it is about 5.4 times the normal number of new amateur licensees granted each year. But, on the 10-year grant period of a license, about 34,900 (give or take) will enter the "grace period" for renewal. Considering that is the HIGHEST number of "inferior others" in U.S. ham radio, I'd say that ORDINARY RENEWAL would be a large "burden" on VEs. By the way, in the last year, 16,088 NEW licensees were added but 18,644 were expired. That's a delta of -2,556 in one year. That loss has also been consistent. Not to worry, you won't read this anyway (my postings are "too horrid" to respond to, you once said). :-) dit dot |
"Dee Flint" wrote in message ... "an_old_friend" wrote in message oups.com... Bill Sohl wrote: wrote in message ups.com... Kim wrote: large cut It would be the height of irony if, in fact, the FCC dropped Element 1 yet kept non-code-tested Techs off of HF until they got Generals or Extras. But isn't that exactly what is proposed. Once it becomes the new regulations (i.e. no code test anymore at all) there really is no way for a code-less Tech to then become a Tech with coode since there won't be anymore code tests being administered. OTOH this being the govt it could be the result I hope the FCC will make it clear in the report and order In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear that they expect any Tech not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs) to take the General exam and upgrade to get HF privileges. Dee D. Flint, N8UZE That's probably correct. After all the FCC needs to clean out V/Uhf ASAP to make room for all that cell phone and wi-max to occupy. Dan/W4NTI |
Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear that they expect any Tech not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs) to take the General exam and upgrade to get HF privileges. Interesting - in many ways! For one thing, there would still be two kinds of Technicians - those with HF and those without. Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more privileges, they show that development by upgrading. The problem is that such an implementation of the concept contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons! The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech-with-HF is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not. The latter has some HF privileges and the former has none. The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and proposes to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not what FCC proposes?! The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only, and require at least a General for HF. That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of Novices is slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to new issues. If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually there won't be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more entry-level licensees with HF privileges. Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources. But more telling would be how many Techs would get Generals or Extras in order to get HF. I think that will indeed be very interesting. Yes! I was plotting the data from the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the Extra. Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it. We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the 5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many Techs upgrade and how many don't. My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while. Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the challenge, just they did in 2000. Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic? 73 de Jim, N2EY |
N2EY:
I think that is excellent, indeed, I think they should start at general with HF. Here is a link to all the correct answers for the general test: http://blake.prohosting.com/mailguy2/generaltest.txt If they simply can't memorize these correct answers, they have no business being generals in arrl's army! John wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear that they expect any Tech not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs) to take the General exam and upgrade to get HF privileges. Interesting - in many ways! For one thing, there would still be two kinds of Technicians - those with HF and those without. Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more privileges, they show that development by upgrading. The problem is that such an implementation of the concept contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons! The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech-with-HF is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not. The latter has some HF privileges and the former has none. The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and proposes to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not what FCC proposes?! The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only, and require at least a General for HF. That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of Novices is slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to new issues. If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually there won't be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more entry-level licensees with HF privileges. Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources. But more telling would be how many Techs would get Generals or Extras in order to get HF. I think that will indeed be very interesting. Yes! I was plotting the data from the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the Extra. Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it. We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the 5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many Techs upgrade and how many don't. My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while. Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the challenge, just they did in 2000. Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic? 73 de Jim, N2EY |
wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear that they expect any Tech not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs) to take the General exam and upgrade to get HF privileges. Interesting - in many ways! For one thing, there would still be two kinds of Technicians - those with HF and those without. Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more privileges, they show that development by upgrading. The problem is that such an implementation of the concept contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons! But it does completely satisfy those who kept hammering on no automatic upgrades and then some as I got the impression that most would not have minded Techs being consolidated with Tech Plus at the Tech Plus privileges even though otherwise against automatic upgrades. The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech-with-HF is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not. The latter has some HF privileges and the former has none. The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and proposes to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not what FCC proposes?! The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only, and require at least a General for HF. It is hard to say what the FCC was thinking. However perhaps they too are looking at the statistics and interpret it as no need for the introductory license to have HF privileges. Afterall the Novice are declining at a fast enough pace that it looks like almost none are active and that almost all are failing to renew. They can easily go into the data as they have it and see how many Tech Pluses actually upgraded, let themselves lapse, or simply renewed. The last indicating a low activity level and/or interest level since they have not upgraded. Also, they may be thinking that this keeps the minimum number to tests to get onto HF at least at two. The Novices had to take two and Techs after April 2000 had to take two to get on HF. Prior to that, Techs had to take 3 tests to get on HF (Novice written, Tech written, and code). They also discussed the concept that they do not want Techs to stay at the Tech level. They consider upgrading as a significant element in individuals fulfilling the basis and purpose of ham radio (i.e. self training, etc). Allowing the Technicians some HF privileges reduces the motivation to upgrade. And the FCC repeately referred to the Techs being able to get on HF by taking the simple written test to upgrade to General. That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of Novices is slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to new issues. If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually there won't be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more entry-level licensees with HF privileges. As a VE and instructor, it's been my observation that not that many Techs bother to take the code until they are ready to upgrade to General. Of course this is limited to the sessions that I have participated in. However in the last 5 years, we've only tested a couple of Techs for code privileges. And those two were not taking it as an upgrade to Tech but at the same session with their Tech written. The rest were all trying for their General licenses (i.e. had their General written CSCE in hand or were trying for their General written at the same session). Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources. Maximum of ten years from the date of the R&O if they don't renew or upgrade. Potentially far longer if they do renew. But more telling would be how many Techs would get Generals or Extras in order to get HF. I think that will indeed be very interesting. Yes! I was plotting the data from the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the Extra. Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it. We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the 5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many Techs upgrade and how many don't. My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while. Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the challenge, just they did in 2000. Yes they will. In reality, I don't expect that we will be swamped as the excuses will begin ("I don't have time to study right now", etc). We will get hit with a bump in the numbers but it won't be that bad. Afterall just look at the bump in 2000. There were something like 100,000+ Tech Pluses and the number of upgrades while higher for a few months wasn't all that large. Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic? Not really. Although as I mentioned earlier, I think under the new system, we will gradually drift towards a de facto two class system (General & Extra) at least among the hams who are actually active. 73 de Jim, N2EY Dee D. Flint, N8UZE |
Dee:
It is obvious, the FCC has chosen the "Time Solution." Now people can grab their licenses with no problems from CW. Time passes, the problem cures itself when all protesters have gone SK, and the real final changes can be instituted. It is probably the best decision given the religious zealots surrounding CW. John "Dee Flint" wrote in message ... wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear that they expect any Tech not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs) to take the General exam and upgrade to get HF privileges. Interesting - in many ways! For one thing, there would still be two kinds of Technicians - those with HF and those without. Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more privileges, they show that development by upgrading. The problem is that such an implementation of the concept contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons! But it does completely satisfy those who kept hammering on no automatic upgrades and then some as I got the impression that most would not have minded Techs being consolidated with Tech Plus at the Tech Plus privileges even though otherwise against automatic upgrades. The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech-with-HF is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not. The latter has some HF privileges and the former has none. The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and proposes to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not what FCC proposes?! The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only, and require at least a General for HF. It is hard to say what the FCC was thinking. However perhaps they too are looking at the statistics and interpret it as no need for the introductory license to have HF privileges. Afterall the Novice are declining at a fast enough pace that it looks like almost none are active and that almost all are failing to renew. They can easily go into the data as they have it and see how many Tech Pluses actually upgraded, let themselves lapse, or simply renewed. The last indicating a low activity level and/or interest level since they have not upgraded. Also, they may be thinking that this keeps the minimum number to tests to get onto HF at least at two. The Novices had to take two and Techs after April 2000 had to take two to get on HF. Prior to that, Techs had to take 3 tests to get on HF (Novice written, Tech written, and code). They also discussed the concept that they do not want Techs to stay at the Tech level. They consider upgrading as a significant element in individuals fulfilling the basis and purpose of ham radio (i.e. self training, etc). Allowing the Technicians some HF privileges reduces the motivation to upgrade. And the FCC repeately referred to the Techs being able to get on HF by taking the simple written test to upgrade to General. That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of Novices is slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to new issues. If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually there won't be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more entry-level licensees with HF privileges. As a VE and instructor, it's been my observation that not that many Techs bother to take the code until they are ready to upgrade to General. Of course this is limited to the sessions that I have participated in. However in the last 5 years, we've only tested a couple of Techs for code privileges. And those two were not taking it as an upgrade to Tech but at the same session with their Tech written. The rest were all trying for their General licenses (i.e. had their General written CSCE in hand or were trying for their General written at the same session). Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources. Maximum of ten years from the date of the R&O if they don't renew or upgrade. Potentially far longer if they do renew. But more telling would be how many Techs would get Generals or Extras in order to get HF. I think that will indeed be very interesting. Yes! I was plotting the data from the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the Extra. Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it. We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the 5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many Techs upgrade and how many don't. My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while. Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the challenge, just they did in 2000. Yes they will. In reality, I don't expect that we will be swamped as the excuses will begin ("I don't have time to study right now", etc). We will get hit with a bump in the numbers but it won't be that bad. Afterall just look at the bump in 2000. There were something like 100,000+ Tech Pluses and the number of upgrades while higher for a few months wasn't all that large. Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic? Not really. Although as I mentioned earlier, I think under the new system, we will gradually drift towards a de facto two class system (General & Extra) at least among the hams who are actually active. 73 de Jim, N2EY Dee D. Flint, N8UZE |
Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear that they expect any Tech not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs) to take the General exam and upgrade to get HF privileges. Interesting - in many ways! For one thing, there would still be two kinds of Technicians - those with HF and those without. Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more privileges, they show that development by upgrading. The problem is that such an implementation of the concept contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons! But it does completely satisfy those who kept hammering on no automatic upgrades and then some as I got the impression that most would not have minded Techs being consolidated with Tech Plus at the Tech Plus privileges even though otherwise against automatic upgrades. Perhaps. Or perhaps FCC thinks that anybody who really wants HF should just go for General or Extra. The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech- with-HF is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not. The latter has some HF privileges and the former has none. The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and proposes to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not what FCC proposes?! The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only, and require at least a General for HF. It is hard to say what the FCC was thinking. However perhaps they too are looking at the statistics and interpret it as no need for the introductory license to have HF privileges. Afterall the Novice are declining at a fast enough pace that it looks like almost none are active and that almost all are failing to renew. They can easily go into the data as they have it and see how many Tech Pluses actually upgraded, let themselves lapse, or simply renewed. The last indicating a low activity level and/or interest level since they have not upgraded. The number of upgrades isn't easily obtained from the database, though. Also, they may be thinking that this keeps the minimum number to tests to get onto HF at least at two. The Novices had to take two and Techs after April 2000 had to take two to get on HF. Prior to that, Techs had to take 3 tests to get on HF (Novice written, Tech written, and code). True enough! And when you consider that the old, pre-restructuring 20 wpm *Extra* was earned by at least one third-grader at the age of 8, it's a bit hard to accept that the written tests are "too hard". (OTOH, the same can be said about the code tests...) They also discussed the concept that they do not want Techs to stay at the Tech level. They consider upgrading as a significant element in individuals fulfilling the basis and purpose of ham radio (i.e. self training, etc). Allowing the Technicians some HF privileges reduces the motivation to upgrade. And the FCC repeately referred to the Techs being able to get on HF by taking the simple written test to upgrade to General. It gets more and more interesting. Sounds like a rebirth of Incentive Licensing. Think about it: FCC saying that it's *not OK* to stay a Tech!?! That upgrading is part of being a good ham and supporting the Basis and Purpose... That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of Novices is slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to new issues. If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually there won't be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more entry-level licensees with HF privileges. As a VE and instructor, it's been my observation that not that many Techs bother to take the code until they are ready to upgrade to General. Of course this is limited to the sessions that I have participated in. However in the last 5 years, we've only tested a couple of Techs for code privileges. And those two were not taking it as an upgrade to Tech but at the same session with their Tech written. The rest were all trying for their General licenses (i.e. had their General written CSCE in hand or were trying for their General written at the same session). Which all makes sense. On top of that, since 1991 I have known many hams who bypassed Novice and went to Tech with the reasoning that they could then upgrade one step at a time, rather than having to prepare for two tests at the same time. Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources. Maximum of ten years from the date of the R&O if they don't renew or upgrade. Potentially far longer if they do renew. Yup. In less than 5 years there will be no more Tech Pluses in the database even if the rules don't change. But more telling would be how many Techs would get Generals or Extras in order to get HF. I think that will indeed be very interesting. Yes! I was plotting the data from the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the Extra. Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it. We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the 5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many Techs upgrade and how many don't. My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while. Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the challenge, just they did in 2000. Yes they will. In reality, I don't expect that we will be swamped as the excuses will begin ("I don't have time to study right now", etc). We will get hit with a bump in the numbers but it won't be that bad. After all just look at the bump in 2000. There were something like 100,000+ Tech Pluses and the number of upgrades while higher for a few months wasn't all that large. And a lot of them were paper-only upgrades. Another factor: if the rules do change, we will probably see a surge of VE action as soon as the changes are announced. This surge will be driven by two forces, as was the pre-April-2000 surge: 1) - Hams getting licenses *before* the rules change so they can say they did 2) - Hams getting CSCEs ahead of time so that they can upgrade under the new rules on the day the rules change. Back in April 2000, there were several no-test VE sessions set up to handle the CSCE surge... Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic? Not really. Although as I mentioned earlier, I think under the new system, we will gradually drift towards a de facto two class system (General & Extra) at least among the hams who are actually active. I disagree somewhat. Two observations: 1) Notice how slowly the Advanced is declining. 5 years and 3 months since it was closed to new issues, and yet the number of Advanceds is about 75% of what it was then. This is despite the attrition to expirations and the written-test-only upgrade to Extra. 2) The number of Generals surged after 2000, but is not growing anymore. General has become a intermediate step on the way to Extra. What we're heading for may be more of a 4 class system - Tech/General/Advanced/Extra. If we do get a de facto 2 class system, it will probably be more like Tech/Extra rather than General/Extra. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: [snip] Not really. Although as I mentioned earlier, I think under the new system, we will gradually drift towards a de facto two class system (General & Extra) at least among the hams who are actually active. I disagree somewhat. Two observations: 1) Notice how slowly the Advanced is declining. 5 years and 3 months since it was closed to new issues, and yet the number of Advanceds is about 75% of what it was then. This is despite the attrition to expirations and the written-test-only upgrade to Extra. 2) The number of Generals surged after 2000, but is not growing anymore. General has become a intermediate step on the way to Extra. What we're heading for may be more of a 4 class system - Tech/General/Advanced/Extra. If we do get a de facto 2 class system, it will probably be more like Tech/Extra rather than General/Extra. 73 de Jim, N2EY It is very difficult to guess but I would expect a significant number of people to take the Tech & General at the same time as there is only a small jump in difficulty level so that their original licenses will be General. In any classes that I teach, that will be the approach that I take and I will have a syllabus geared towards that goal. If you are familiar with the "Now You're Talking" study guides from the 1992 era, you will recall that it covered both the Novice written and Technician written. It actively encouraged students to take the road of studying for both writtens (and code) and take all the tests. I'll take the same approach. This way the material that is repeated between the Tech & General needs to be studied only once. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see Extra eventually become the largest class under the upcoming system. Dee D. Flint, N8UZE |
Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: It is very difficult to guess but I would expect a significant number of people to take the Tech & General at the same time as there is only a small jump in difficulty level so that their original licenses will be General. Well, "small jump in difficulty" is subjective. Back in 1987, FCC thought the difference was significant enough that they split the old General into two elements. Old 3 became 3A and 3B, with 3A for Tech and both for General. In any classes that I teach, that will be the approach that I take and I will have a syllabus geared towards that goal. If you are familiar with the "Now You're Talking" study guides from the 1992 era, you will recall that it covered both the Novice written and Technician written. It actively encouraged students to take the road of studying for both writtens (and code) and take all the tests. I'll take the same approach. This way the material that is repeated between the Tech & General needs to be studied only once. I think it all depends on the individual. Some will find the two tests a big step, others won't. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see Extra eventually become the largest class under the upcoming system. Well, look at the numbers. Back in May 2000, Extras made up just 11.67% of then-current licenses held by individuals (78,750 out of 674,792) Today, Extras make up 16.10% of current licenses held by individuals (106,900 out of 664,040). Meanwhile, the combined Tech class percentages have *dropped*: May 2000: 49.5% of then-current licenses held by individuals were Tech or Tech Plus (334,254 out of 674,792) Today: 47.8% of current licenses held by individuals are Tech or Tech Plus (317,452 out of 664,040) If you add in Novices, so that you're looking at all the "entry level" licenses, the difference is even greater. Perhaps you're right, Dee. Maybe the system will evolve to something approaching a two-level system, in that there will be a few Techs, lots of Generals and lots of Extras. --- I read the FCC document again. Seems very clear to me that FCC's vision for the Technician is that it will have *no*, repeat *no*, HF privileges. Instead, FCC intends that those who want HF pass at least the General test. Of course those who have Novice or "Tech with HF" privileges won't lose them. But both existing noncodetested Techs and future ones will have no HF privileges at all, under the FCC proposal. This is evident from a careful reading of the proposal. Here's why: The proposed changes to the rules are very simple. First, Element 1 would simply be deleted. No more Morse Code testing at all. Second, the requirements and credits for existing licenses would change slightly. Getting a Tech would require Element 2, getting a General would require Elements 2 and 3, and getting an Extra would require Elements 2, 3 and 4. And that's about it for changes to Part 97. The Part 97 verbiage about HF privileges for Techs involves those who have passed a Morse Code exam and retain license documents to prove it. But if Element 1 is deleted, there will be no way for anyone to pass such an exam, and so there will be no new Techs with HF privileges. IOW, existing noncodetested Techs *will not* get any HF under the FCC proposal as written. This is backed up by repeated verbiage in the document about no one getting privileges without passing the exams. No free upgrades for anybody. FCC also repeatedly mentions the generous HF and MF privileges that would be obtained by passing the written for General. 73 de Jim, N2EY 313 btw, the comments of two regular posters to rrap were mentioned in the document. |
N2EY:
I think at this time, the tech ticket can be dropped, let 'em go general to start or forget it!!! Just combine tech&gen tests to one... John wrote in message ups.com... Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message oups.com... Dee Flint wrote: It is very difficult to guess but I would expect a significant number of people to take the Tech & General at the same time as there is only a small jump in difficulty level so that their original licenses will be General. Well, "small jump in difficulty" is subjective. Back in 1987, FCC thought the difference was significant enough that they split the old General into two elements. Old 3 became 3A and 3B, with 3A for Tech and both for General. In any classes that I teach, that will be the approach that I take and I will have a syllabus geared towards that goal. If you are familiar with the "Now You're Talking" study guides from the 1992 era, you will recall that it covered both the Novice written and Technician written. It actively encouraged students to take the road of studying for both writtens (and code) and take all the tests. I'll take the same approach. This way the material that is repeated between the Tech & General needs to be studied only once. I think it all depends on the individual. Some will find the two tests a big step, others won't. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see Extra eventually become the largest class under the upcoming system. Well, look at the numbers. Back in May 2000, Extras made up just 11.67% of then-current licenses held by individuals (78,750 out of 674,792) Today, Extras make up 16.10% of current licenses held by individuals (106,900 out of 664,040). Meanwhile, the combined Tech class percentages have *dropped*: May 2000: 49.5% of then-current licenses held by individuals were Tech or Tech Plus (334,254 out of 674,792) Today: 47.8% of current licenses held by individuals are Tech or Tech Plus (317,452 out of 664,040) If you add in Novices, so that you're looking at all the "entry level" licenses, the difference is even greater. Perhaps you're right, Dee. Maybe the system will evolve to something approaching a two-level system, in that there will be a few Techs, lots of Generals and lots of Extras. --- I read the FCC document again. Seems very clear to me that FCC's vision for the Technician is that it will have *no*, repeat *no*, HF privileges. Instead, FCC intends that those who want HF pass at least the General test. Of course those who have Novice or "Tech with HF" privileges won't lose them. But both existing noncodetested Techs and future ones will have no HF privileges at all, under the FCC proposal. This is evident from a careful reading of the proposal. Here's why: The proposed changes to the rules are very simple. First, Element 1 would simply be deleted. No more Morse Code testing at all. Second, the requirements and credits for existing licenses would change slightly. Getting a Tech would require Element 2, getting a General would require Elements 2 and 3, and getting an Extra would require Elements 2, 3 and 4. And that's about it for changes to Part 97. The Part 97 verbiage about HF privileges for Techs involves those who have passed a Morse Code exam and retain license documents to prove it. But if Element 1 is deleted, there will be no way for anyone to pass such an exam, and so there will be no new Techs with HF privileges. IOW, existing noncodetested Techs *will not* get any HF under the FCC proposal as written. This is backed up by repeated verbiage in the document about no one getting privileges without passing the exams. No free upgrades for anybody. FCC also repeatedly mentions the generous HF and MF privileges that would be obtained by passing the written for General. 73 de Jim, N2EY 313 btw, the comments of two regular posters to rrap were mentioned in the document. |
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