RadioBanter - HD/IBOC Boosters Remain Clueless !

"HD Radio Adoption Lags...but Why?"

"As a number of recent articles in trade literature have pointed out,
adoption rates for HD Radio lag behind most research projections, and
are a continuing disappointment to broadcast groups that have made
substantial financial commitments to digital plant conversion and new
programming in an era where operating margins are notoriously tight."

"Speculation regarding why this is so abounds. Some blame the
ponderous gestation period of the current IBOC standard, others blame
new media technology and ubiquitous misappropriation of intellectual
property (translation: illegal music downloading). Still others point
at the trend towards consumers 'pulling' media on a highly
individualized basis. Indeed, a litany of explanations indicate that
an apparent public indifference to HD Radio can't be attributed to any
single factor."

"But as debate about what's preventing consumers from embracing HD
Radio swirls inside industry circles, research trends provide a few
theoretically grounded clues about the nature of the problem. Here's
what we know: Adoption rates are significantly behind prior
projections. A recent press release by Bridge Ratings indicates the
firm has made a downward adjustment to its predicted trend line on HD
Radio adoptions issued just one year ago. And Bridge is not alone.
According to an article on e-Marketer.com, Kagen research predicted in
2005 that HD Radio would be generating about 4 percent of radio's
revenue by the end of this year. At this point it's questionable we've
even reached the break-even point."

"And it's not a cart before the horse scenario. Station conversion
totals are now well into four digits and a large majority of radio
listeners have at least a few HD signals available in their markets.
Bridge Ratings highlighted one disturbing finding in their most recent
survey that gives a solid clue. Although a higher percentage of
consumers report an awareness of HD Radio technology, fewer of them on
a percentage basis find the technology compelling enough to warrant a
receiver purchase."

"For those who have never read Everett Rogers' Diffusion of
Innovations, it may be time for a trip to the library. This impressive
work established the now-familiar categories of adopters so widely
referenced today. Besides assigning adopter characteristics, Rogers
also identifies key innovation attributes that bear directly on the
speed of adoption. Leading that list is an attribute described as
'relative advantage,' and it's here that at least one disconnect for
consumers seems to be suggested by the research."

"Consumers, thus far, do not see multicasting, or 'CD-like quality' as
compelling reasons to invest significant effort and cash in this new
technology. Sure, more channels are good, but why go out of one's way
to get them if you don't really know what's on them? Okay, AM HD Radio
sounds better...but who really cares if all your listening to is Rush,
Sean and Jim Rome? Another important factor in determining adoption
rates and penetration is what Rogers refers to as 'Diffusion
Networks.' He and others have emphasized the importance of 'Opinion
Leaders' and other interpersonal connections as pivotal in influencing
the adoption decision process."

"Consider this: Satellite radio's penetration, though still lagging
behind a number of previous projections, would be nowhere near its
current levels had Mel Karmazan not successfully maneuvered Howard
Stern into a contract with Sirius. Certainly, Howard's departure from
terrestrial boosted the relative advantage of Sirius Satellite, but
Howard is nothing if not a textbook definition of an opinion leader -
at least among his millions of fans - and his cheerleading lead many
of them to a purchase decision. Which leaves us to ponder what would
happen to HD Radio sales if, say, Rush were suddenly shifted to
multicast channels in most major markets, and he talked the move up
for months before making it. Or, on a smaller scale, what if the
industry began doing the same thing with popular morning shows? What
if every prominent local radio personality was charged with convincing
their audience that HD Radio is a worthy investment, and they said it
like they actually meant it?"

"If this industry truly believes in an HD Radio advantage, we had best
begin communicating it with our audience in a direct, unambiguous and
personal way. It's pretty clear that 30-second promos with clever
wordplays, audio special effects and mysterious references to
'channels in between' are simply not getting the job done. If our
'opinion leaders' aren't leading, who will?"

http://radiomagonline.com/digital_ra...82207/#nytimes

Ha! Ha!