:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Feb 17 0733 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 February 2014

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period with
Region 1974 (S12, L=354, class/area Fkc/990 on 14 February) as the
major source of flaring activity during the period. Region 1974
continued its growth and development phase during its transit and
quickly became the largest and most magnetically complex
(beta-gamma-delta) region on the visible disk. This region was
responsible for a total of 33 C-class flares and 14 M-class flares.

The period began on 10 February at low levels with mostly low level
C-class activity mainly attributable to Region 1974. By 11-12
February, solar activity increased to moderate levels as Region 1974
produced 5 M-class flares including an M1/1n flare at 11/0331 UTC
and an M3/2n flare (the largest of the period) at 12/0425 UTC. The
M1/1n flare on 11 February was associated with Type II (873 km/s)
and IV radio sweeps as well as a faint, asymmetric halo coronal mass
ejection (CME) with an approximate speed of 480 km/s. A 15 degree
filament eruption was observed lifting off the visible disk at
approximately 11/0332 UTC. The filament eruption was associated with
a partially Earth-directed CME with an estimated speed of 776 km/s.
The M3/2n flare, observed on 12 February, was also associated with a
halo CME with an estimated speed near 743 km/s. Solar activity
reached high levels on 13 February as Region 1974 produced 5 M1
flares. Moderate levels continued on 14 February as Region 1974
produced 4 M-class flares including an M1/Sb flare at 14/1639 UTC
with an associated Tenflare (200 sfu). Low levels were observed on
15 February. By 16 February, moderate levels were once again reached
as Region 1977 (S09, L=290, class/area Ekc/460 on 13 February)
produced an M1/Sn at 16/0926 UTC with an associated Type IV radio
sweep. An associated partial halo CME (estimated speed of 425 km/s)
appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1325 UTC with a weak
Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 10 February and again from 13-15 February. Moderate
levels were observed on 11-12 February with normal levels observed
on 16 February.

The geomagnetic field began the period under the influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speeds increased to 570 km/s briefly by late on 10 February
with total field measurements from 5 nT to 7 nT. Quiet to active
conditions were observed on 10 February as a result. Solar wind
conditions slowly decreased over the next few days to nominal
levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 11 and 12
February with quiet levels on 13 and 14 February. At 15/1234 UTC, an
interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft indicating
the arrival of a combination of CMEs from 11 and 12 February. Solar
wind speed increased from 400 km/s to 487 km/s with the total field
increasing from 6 nT to 16 nT. The Bz component was mostly north
near +15 nT the majority of the period with short deviations
southward near -13 nT. A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 23 nT was
observed at the Hartland magnetometer at 15/1311 UTC. Mostly
unsettled conditions continued from mid day on 15 February with a
minor storm period observed late in the period. By 16 February, CME
effects continued to influence the geomagnetic field with solar wind
speed declining to near 366 km/s by the end of the period. Total
field ranged from 2 nT to 17 nT with the Bz component between +17 nT
and -10 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to minor
storm levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 February - 15 March 2014

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate conditions
through the period. An increase to a chance for X-flare activity is
expected from 22 February through 07 March with the return of old
Regions 1967 (S12, L=112) and 1968 (N09, L=109).

A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton event due to
potential flare activity from old Region 1967 as it rotates across
the visible disk from 22 February through 07 March.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels through the period with
a chance for high levels on 17-18 February due to CME effects and
again on 09-10 March due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet through
the period. Quiet to unsettled periods are expected on 20-21
February due to a possible glancing blow from the 16 February CME.
Quiet to unsettled levels are also expected on 25 February, 09
March, and 11 March due to CH HSS effects.