In article , Mike Coslo
writes:

N2EY wrote:
In article , GMC
writes:

It looks like we are on the road to some deflation in the numbers.

Perhaps. There are lots of factors influencing the numbers right now. For
example, a new Tech Q&A pool was put in place July 15, and since then the
number of new Techs has plummeted.

I might have posted this before, but if I was a prospective ham at this

juncture, I would probably wait and go for the biggist bang for the buck
- that is to wait and just go for the General ticket after the Morse
code test is gone.

Perhaps - but that means no ham radio at all until the changes take place.
Which could be years. How interested is somebody who will wait that long?

Also, if FCC does just dump Element 1, newbies will still need to pass the Tech
written.

Then again, maybe I wouldn't myself, because I personally think its
going to be four years til things get wrapped up in this area (dropping
the CW test). But others think it will only be a few months.

ARRL's guess was two years, which means July 2005. I used to think that was way
too long, but every day it looks more reasonable. The way things look, now,
with all those petitions out there and ARRL not yet weighed in on anything, it
could be next spring before an NPRM shows up. Note how long ago some petitions
were filed (like that 'refarm the Novice bands' idea) that are still hanging
fire.*

And if 98-143 is any guide, such an NPRM will have a long comment period
and...well, you get the idea.

Then ya got NCVEC talking about a whole series of petitions if/when the code
test goes, which to me sounds like doubling the hill.*

You watch, Mike - if/when the code test is dropped, we'll have a surge of
upgrades and new hams for a while - then things will settle back to about where
they were before restructuring.

73 de Jim, N2EY

* special bonus trivia section - how did the phrases "hanging fire" and
"doubling the hill" originate?

And that is my take on the drop.

Similar situation is my son bought a copy of Finale software. He was
surprised that it offered a free upgrade to the new version, which is
due out in a few months. I asked him if he knew that there was a new
version out in two month, would he have bought this one? Of course the
answer was no for such expensive software. He would have waited, and
Finale's producers would be in a real sales doldrum right now - no one
would be buying.