"N2EY" wrote in message
...
In article , "Carl R. Stevenson"
writes:

Were it not for the no-code tech license since 1990, I'd bet we'd have
about 1/2 the number of licensed hams in the US that we have now.

Not a good bet, Carl! Good thing nobody will take you up on it.

For one thing, the Tech license lost its code test Feb 14, 1991, not in
1990.
But that's a minor point.

You're right, of course ... the Proceeding was in 90, but the changes
didn't take effect until 91.

Take a look at the number of new hams per year and the growth of US
licenses
from Feb 1991 until today. Then compare to the number of new hams per year
and
the growth in a time period of the same length previous to Feb 1991.
You'll see
that that the Tech's loss of its code test in Feb 1991 did cause an
increase in
the number of new hams. But without that increase, we would not be down to
340,000 US hams by any reasonable scenario. Heck, there are ~423,000 US
hams
today who are *not* Techs - that's a lot more than 1/2 the ~683,000.

Jim,

Of that 423k US hams who are not Techs, how many do you suppose started
out as Techs and have since upgraded? How many SKs and dropouts would
have reduced the population without the newcomers coming in to replace them.

Maybe 50% is a slight stretch, but I'd guess not by a lot.


Yes, there are almost 260,000 Techs today - but a large number of them are
actually Tech Pluses whom the FCC renewed as Techs since April 2000.

Out of 10 years of NCTs, only a few years worth would fall into that
category.
I would bet that a LOT of the Tech Pluses that existed in April of 2000 are
now
Generals or Extras, rather than having been renewed as Techs with code
credit.

73,
Carl - wk3c