"Dee D. Flint" wrote in message
.com...

"Bill Sohl" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Dee D. Flint" wrote in message
.com...

"Bill Sohl" wrote in message
nk.net...


Supposing that the ARRL petition is the form in which the change
actually
gets made and that all the newly upgraded people get on HF, how is the
ham
community supposed to "elmer" 300,000+ new HF users all at once?

Do you really believe for a second that if the upgrades take
place that there will suddenly be 300K people "on-the-air"
in HF that haven't been? If yes, I have a nice bridge in
Brooklyn I'd like to sell you.

Reality check...
1. How many Techs now own an HF rig at all?
2. How many, if upgraded will buy an HF rig?
3. How many Techs are spouses or family members
of an existing ham who is already General, Advanced or Extra?
4. How many of existing 300K techs are SK or otherwise
inactive anyway?

As for "elmering" those that would become Generals, I'm
sure many of us are willing to help anyone that asks for help.

Cheers,
Bill K2UNK

It was partially a hypothetical question. Some Techs are inactive anyway
so
there's probably a signficant portion there. However if even just a third
of
them get on the air, that's still a big enough increase, even if spread
over
months, since some will be buying rigs, that it could be a problem for a
while. If even 10% of the current Techs get on the HF bands within a
relatively short period of time, it will be chaotic for a period of time.

But answer this. If they are not going to get on the air, what is the
point
of the free upgrade??? It is senseless to give people something they are
not going to use.

I can turn that around in a heart-beat. If they are not going to
get on the air on HF, why would YOU care? Bottom line,
none of us know how many will "get into" HF and how many
won't.

Let's take a look at the points 1 to 3.

1. Most Techs that I personally know have an HF+2m rig at home as they
are
planning to upgrade anyway. Or they have it for all-mode VHF/UHF
capability
or satellite work. All these people will be in a position to go on the
air
instantly if free upgrades are instituted.

Do they have an antenna for HF transmitting too?

2. Among the active Techs, a very high percentage can be expected to buy
an
HF rig as soon as they could afford one.

And you base that on what logic or facts?

3. If they are a family member of a higher class licensee and are
actually
interested in radio for its own sake, they will go on the air immediately.

Fine, but they can't be on the same time as their other family
member with the HF license.

Cheers,
Bill K2UNK