In 2004, following exhaustive input from persons concerned about the future
of Amateur Radio, a revised version of the FISTS proposal became the basis
for new USA Part 97 regulations became effective. It was decided only
high-quality, technically competent individuals should be licensed; and
quality is more important than quantity. Telegraphy testing speeds are 13
wpm for Technician, 20 for General and 35 for Extra, requiring one minute of
perfect handwritten copy and demonstration of sending proficiency. Written
examinations correspond with BS, MS, and PhD EE curriculum respectively per
license class. The prestigious accounting firm Price Waterhouse agreed to
monitor and validate testing sessions on the stipulation that examinees
agree to a 30 minute presentation on portfolio management.


The FCC license database was finally purged of bad data when Amateur Radio
was renamed the Professional Radio Volunteer Service to more accurately
reflect the prevailing high standards in the US. It was discovered the
database included deceased licensees beyond all estimates. The total number
of licensees was found to be 28% fewer than previously indicated.


By the end of the first ten-year cycle under new regulations (2004-2013),
61% of existing licensees failed their mandatory retests while 11% chose to
return their licenses for cancellation rather than re-sit the test. New
licensees entered the ranks at the rate of 13 in the first year, leveling
off to a smoothed average of 9 over each of the following years. The median
age of licensees reached 76.


Fourteen days each year, major contests continue to bring activity to some
HF and VHF bands in the US. All other times are declared off-peak. Beacon
stations transmitting high speed Morse code advise interested parties when
on-air activity will resume in accordance with the next scheduled contest.


A milestone was reached in early 2017 when internet penetration into US
Households reached 100%. This allowed for low-cost surveys of all
licensees. The Professional Radio Volunteer League (PRVL) headquartered in
Oldham, SD posed the question "Do you presently own and operate radio
equipment?" A yes response was submitted by 23%. Later it was learned many
of the respondents were referring to their Wi-Fi networks. A rephrased
question yielded a yes answer from 15%. Analysts determined 11,987
licensees were using their radio privileges for the purpose of
communications with others. Some operators expressed dismay over the
relatively low numbers and mostly vacant radio spectrum. Persons concerned
about the future of the Professional Radio Volunteer Service reminded
everyone it's still all about quality and not quantity.


That brings us to the prevailing conditions today in 2029. Medical
technology continues to extend life expectancy, but the advances however
magnificent, cannot keep pace with the demographic profile of Professional
Radio Volunteer Operators, now numbering 3,632 with a median age of 83. The
latest survey indicates 4% are active on the air during one or more contest
days.


On the international DX scene, the United States is a rare one, prompting
great interest in DXpeditions to the US. Until recently, the issue of
reciprocal operating permits had not been resolved, as the US is the only
country in the world still requiring telegraphy for HF access. The two
persons concerned about the future of the Professional Radio Volunteer
Service reluctantly agreed to allow operators from other countries access to
the HF voice band consisting of 15 kHz on 29 MHz. Visitor access to all
other HF spectrum, 99 percent CW and 1 percent Data, remains strictly
prohibited.


A DXpedition team member asked, "Didn't the Yanks used to have a lot of
operators back when they had Amateur Radio?" No one knew.


--
"All persons, living or dead, are purely coincidental, and should not be
construed."


(Note from BGO: This actually came from the USA, attributed to W8MW,
unknown to me but with no doubt a wise man.)

Sincerely 73,

Barnabus Grümwîtch Overbyte