In article , Mike Coslo
writes:

I think that the numbers of hams will continue to
decrease until we are taken out of the limbo we have been in for some
time now.

What "limbo", Mike? We've had a class of US ham license with no code test for
more than 13-1/2 years now. The maximum code test speed has been 5 wpm for more
than 4 years now - and for a decade before that, medical waivers were
available.

The code test may or may not go away in the next few years/months/decades. The
written exams may change similarly. The various bands may change as well.

I don't think that's the problem.

The prospective amateur has *no* idea at this time if the Morse code
requirement will be kept, how long it will be kept if it is, and when it
will go away if it is discarded.

So? Someone who really wants to be a ham will do what is necessary to pass the
tests at the time.

In as much as most people will not imagine that the changes to come will
take as long as as the will likely take, the net effect will be
potential Hams sitting and waiting for the Morse code to go away.

Maybe some will. I think most interested folks will simply learn enough to pass
the tests and get on with it.

Its certainly what I would do if I were thinking about getting a
license at this point.

But it's not what you did when you got started.

And would you not get *any* license until the code test went away, or would you
just hold off from upgrading?

Whatever is done should be done and done quickly. That said, there is a
mile of difference between "should" and "will". I still stand by my
original prediction made some time ago.

Back in 1989-1990 we were told that a nocodetest ham license was "absolutely
needed for growth". And when it became a reality, we got some short-term growth
for a few years.

Then we were told that the code test had to go for the same reason - and it was
dropped to 5 wpm for all classes in 2000. We got some short-term growth for a
few years - now we're back *below* the level before the restructuring.

I was a ham way back in 1967, when they said incentive licensing would "kill
amateur radio". There were about 250,000 US hams back then. Yet in the 10 years
after incentive licensing took full effect (1969-1979 or thereabouts) the
number of US hams grew by about 100,000, despite poor economic conditions, much
less accessible testing, waiting period for Extra, no code waivers and a code
test for all hams. And no internet or computer-based training methods.

Jim, do you still have those dates?

Which dates do you mean?

I'd be curious to see who has
fallen by the wayside so far.

I'm not sure what you're asking, Mike.

73 de Jim, N2EY