N2EY wrote:

In article , Mike Coslo
writes:


I think that the numbers of hams will continue to
decrease until we are taken out of the limbo we have been in for some
time now.


What "limbo", Mike? We've had a class of US ham license with no code test for
more than 13-1/2 years now. The maximum code test speed has been 5 wpm for more
than 4 years now - and for a decade before that, medical waivers were
available.

Limbo is when a prospective ham thinks that possibly he or she can get
on HF simply by waiting a few months and not having to take any Morse
code test.

Let's compare the situation to when the Governor of PA had the temporary
tax exemption on computers. I think it lasted something like a week.
Guess what happened to computer sales at the local Circuit City, Best
Buy, etc. the week or two before the exemption. When I went in and
looked around, the sales clerk at one store even told me to hold off
until next week.

Seems like a direct comparison to me.


The code test may or may not go away in the next few years/months/decades. The
written exams may change similarly. The various bands may change as well.

I don't think that's the problem.

The prospective amateur has *no* idea at this time if the Morse code
requirement will be kept, how long it will be kept if it is, and when it
will go away if it is discarded.


So? Someone who really wants to be a ham will do what is necessary to pass the
tests at the time.

I'd temper that. If I thought that the Morse requirement would go away
in say, 6 months, I would have waited.

And most people do not expect a long time to pass before it goes away.
I know some people were incredulous when I gave my time to expiry (if
any) in that pool we had a while back.

In as much as most people will not imagine that the changes to come will
take as long as as the will likely take, the net effect will be
potential Hams sitting and waiting for the Morse code to go away.


Maybe some will. I think most interested folks will simply learn enough to pass
the tests and get on with it.

Its certainly what I would do if I were thinking about getting a
license at this point.


But it's not what you did when you got started.

Some things operating there.

There was no code elimination horizon.

I'm skeptical enough and have enough experience that I knew it was going
to be a long time coming

I wanted to get on HF pretty badly.

I'm not afraid of learning something (even though it was admittedly very
hard for me)


And would you not get *any* license until the code test went away, or would you
just hold off from upgrading?

Hard to say. When I originally got my license, I was only planning on
being a Technician, and I was thinking about how to apply Amateur radio
to my other hobby, Amateur astronomy. I really didn't have much interest
in HF at all! then after a field day where I was allowed to operate, I
was hooked. So my experience is likely not typical. In fact, if it
wasn't for the Technician no-code license, I probably wouldn't be a Ham
now. (to my great loss!!)


Whatever is done should be done and done quickly. That said, there is a
mile of difference between "should" and "will". I still stand by my
original prediction made some time ago.


Back in 1989-1990 we were told that a nocodetest ham license was "absolutely
needed for growth". And when it became a reality, we got some short-term growth
for a few years.

Then we were told that the code test had to go for the same reason - and it was
dropped to 5 wpm for all classes in 2000. We got some short-term growth for a
few years - now we're back *below* the level before the restructuring.

It isn't the code or lack of it. It is the limbo state of not knowing
what is going to happen.

I don't think changes will make for growth, except in the short term.


I was a ham way back in 1967, when they said incentive licensing would "kill
amateur radio". There were about 250,000 US hams back then. Yet in the 10 years
after incentive licensing took full effect (1969-1979 or thereabouts) the
number of US hams grew by about 100,000, despite poor economic conditions, much
less accessible testing, waiting period for Extra, no code waivers and a code
test for all hams. And no internet or computer-based training methods.

Of course. Way too much emphasis is put on all the modern conveniences
and the numbers of Hams. I wouldn't care if I had to take the test,
writing on the back of a shovel with a piece of limestone, while Heidi
Klum was trying to distract me. How's that for working her into the
thread! ;^)


Jim, do you still have those dates?


Which dates do you mean?


I'd be curious to see who has
fallen by the wayside so far.


I'm not sure what you're asking, Mike.

Didn't you take a poll of rrap people consisting of guesstimates when
we believed that Morse code would be dropped? I think it was right after
WRC-03. I remember I predicted something like 4 or maybe 5 years.

- Mike KB3EIA -