In article , Mike Coslo
writes:

N2EY wrote:

In article , Mike Coslo
writes:

I think that the numbers of hams will continue to
decrease until we are taken out of the limbo we have been in for some
time now.

What "limbo", Mike? We've had a class of US ham license with no code test
for
more than 13-1/2 years now. The maximum code test speed has been 5 wpm
for more
than 4 years now - and for a decade before that, medical waivers were
available.

Limbo is when a prospective ham thinks that possibly he or she can get
on HF simply by waiting a few months and not having to take any Morse
code test.

OK. But would that really keep a lot of folks from getting any license at all?

It would seem to me that the sensible thing to do in that situation, were
someone that averse to the 5 wpm code test, would be to pass the Tech and
General writtens. Maybe toss in the Extra written too. They'd have a Tech
license and General and/or Extra CSCE. Then, when the code test went away,
they'd be all set to go. Spend the waiting time setting up a station, antenna,
etc.

Let's compare the situation to when the Governor of PA had the temporary
tax exemption on computers. I think it lasted something like a week.
Guess what happened to computer sales at the local Circuit City, Best
Buy, etc. the week or two before the exemption. When I went in and
looked around, the sales clerk at one store even told me to hold off
until next week.

Seems like a direct comparison to me.

Not really. We *knew* the tax exemption was coming, and it was only a week or
two away. And we knew the exemption would only last a week or so.

It made sense for folks who were contemplating a computer purchase to simply
wait a week or two.

Here in southeast PA, some folks simply drive to Delaware for big taxable
purchases that are easily portable. Computers, hamgear, cameras, etc. The big
question is whether the savings offset the driving cost.

Yet our businesses survive.

The code test may or may not go away in the next few years/months/decades.
The
written exams may change similarly. The various bands may change as well.

I don't think that's the problem.

The prospective amateur has *no* idea at this time if the Morse code
requirement will be kept, how long it will be kept if it is, and when it
will go away if it is discarded.

So? Someone who really wants to be a ham will do what is necessary to pass
the tests at the time.

I'd temper that. If I thought that the Morse requirement would go away
in say, 6 months, I would have waited.

Sure - but that's if you knew for sure. At this point we don't even have an
NPRM.

ARRL predicted 2 years. It's been over 14 months since WRC 2003 ended.

And most people do not expect a long time to pass before it goes away.
I know some people were incredulous when I gave my time to expiry (if
any) in that pool we had a while back.

I reposted the list/pool. Look how many people were wrong - including me.

In as much as most people will not imagine that the changes to come will
take as long as as the will likely take, the net effect will be
potential Hams sitting and waiting for the Morse code to go away.

Maybe some will. I think most interested folks will simply learn enough to
pass the tests and get on with it.

Its certainly what I would do if I were thinking about getting a
license at this point.

But it's not what you did when you got started.

Some things operating there.

There was no code elimination horizon.

Sure there was. NCI was pushing for it, weren't they? WRC 2003 was on the way.

I'm skeptical enough and have enough experience that I knew it was going
to be a long time coming

I wanted to get on HF pretty badly.

I'm not afraid of learning something (even though it was admittedly very
hard for me)

You are not alone. Or even rare, despite what some naysayers would have us
believe.

And would you not get *any* license until the code test went away, or would
you just hold off from upgrading?

Hard to say. When I originally got my license, I was only planning on
being a Technician, and I was thinking about how to apply Amateur radio
to my other hobby, Amateur astronomy. I really didn't have much interest
in HF at all! then after a field day where I was allowed to operate, I
was hooked. So my experience is likely not typical.

I disagree!

A lot of new hams come into amateur radio by such indirect routes. In my youth,
many hams came from the ranks of SWLs.

In fact, if it
wasn't for the Technician no-code license, I probably wouldn't be a Ham
now. (to my great loss!!)

See? You would have just held off upgrading.

But we don't see that happening. The total number of Tech and Tech Pluses is
declining.

Whatever is done should be done and done quickly. That said, there is a
mile of difference between "should" and "will". I still stand by my
original prediction made some time ago.

Back in 1989-1990 we were told that a nocodetest ham license was
"absolutely
needed for growth". And when it became a reality, we got some short-term
growth
for a few years.

Then we were told that the code test had to go for the same reason - and it
was
dropped to 5 wpm for all classes in 2000. We got some short-term growth for
a
few years - now we're back *below* the level before the restructuring.

It isn't the code or lack of it. It is the limbo state of not knowing
what is going to happen.

I don't think changes will make for growth, except in the short term.

I think it's lack of publicity, plus competition from other activities, plus
the loss of "honeydew hams" to cell phones and FRS/GMRS. Plus antenna
limitations, RFI, ...

I was a ham way back in 1967, when they said incentive licensing would
"kill
amateur radio". There were about 250,000 US hams back then. Yet in the 10
years
after incentive licensing took full effect (1969-1979 or thereabouts) the
number of US hams grew by about 100,000, despite poor economic conditions,
much
less accessible testing, waiting period for Extra, no code waivers and a
code
test for all hams. And no internet or computer-based training methods.

Of course. Way too much emphasis is put on all the modern conveniences

and the numbers of Hams.

A lot of folks are looking for a challenge, not a giveaway.

I wouldn't care if I had to take the test,
writing on the back of a shovel with a piece of limestone, while Heidi
Klum was trying to distract me. How's that for working her into the
thread! ;^)

In my case it was Heidi and Jan Smithers fighting over me....

Jim, do you still have those dates?

Posted in a new thread.

73 de Jim, N2EY