Not sure if I answered this one or not...

In article , Mike Coslo
writes:

N2EY wrote:

In article , Mike Coslo
writes:

N2EY wrote:

In article , Mike Coslo
writes:

Limbo is when a prospective ham thinks that possibly he or she can get
on HF simply by waiting a few months and not having to take any Morse
code test.

OK. But would that really keep a lot of folks from getting any license at
all?

It would seem to me that the sensible thing to do in that situation, were
someone that averse to the 5 wpm code test, would be to pass the Tech and
General writtens. Maybe toss in the Extra written too. They'd have a Tech
license and General and/or Extra CSCE. Then, when the code test went away,
they'd be all set to go. Spend the waiting time setting up a station,
antenna, etc.

It might seem sensible to you or me, but I don't think that all that
many people think that way. Of course, they would also have to know
about CSCE's too. I didn't know about them until I flunked my first
Morse code test.

I guess it all comes down to how knowledgeable a newcomer is.

And I'm not certain that the CSCE will apply to the new licensing
scheme.

There's never been a case I know of where a non-expired CSCE was not useful for
a license class that was still available to new issues.

And of course, the year and a day might (probably, in my
opinion) pass before the new testing regimen takes effect, in which case
you will have to take the tests again, and will have wasted the money on
the old tests.

That's the risk. Heck, back in 1968 and 1970 I paid a total of $27 ($9 three
times) to get the Tech, Advanced and Extra. If I'd waited a little longer, I
could have avoided the test fees entirely. $27 was a lot of money to a kid back
then.

Let's compare the situation to when the Governor of PA had the temporary
tax exemption on computers. I think it lasted something like a week.
Guess what happened to computer sales at the local Circuit City, Best
Buy, etc. the week or two before the exemption. When I went in and
looked around, the sales clerk at one store even told me to hold off
until next week.

Seems like a direct comparison to me.

Not really. We *knew* the tax exemption was coming, and it was only a week
or
two away. And we knew the exemption would only last a week or so.

Specific dates aren't the issue, at least with what I am trying to say.
Its the concept of the thing. If you only wait for a while (the Morse
code requirement goes away, or the tax is suspended) you will get (the
amateur radio license or the computer) for a lot (less effort or less money)

Yet people buy cars before the end-of-the-model-year sales, and things like
computers at regular price. Back in 1997 I bought a PC setup for $2500 - 200
MHz 32 MB w/4gig HD, 17" monitor, 56k modem, inkjet printer, etc. Today the
whole setup is worth maybe $100 on a good day (most of that is the Trinitron
monitor), and you can get a system that has 10 times more of almost everything
for about $500. If only I'd waited...

My statement is that some people will wait for reduced entry
requirements. Most people think change happens quickly. SO they say "I
will wait". Then chaneg doesn't occur in a short time. Then they lose
interest and go away without ever becoming a Ham.

I submit to you that the person who loses interest that easily would be
dissuaded by the difficulty of putting up an HF antenna (even a simple endfed
wire), or the cost of ham gear (while the values keep improving, the prices
stay about the same), or a dozen other issues.

And I don't completely buy that the person who does this wasn't *really*
interested. I only recently became a Ham - around 5 years now. I had no
real interest in many of the things that Hams do when I got started. I
discovered the joys only after some time had passed.

Of course - but you *knew* you wanted to be a ham, and the fact that the tests
might change or the equipment might get cheaper or the sunspots might get
better or worse didn't really affect what you did.

Now I'm a member of the BOD at our local club. I was Field day chairman
this past year. I control op the club station during the big QSO party
of the fall. I'm at every public service event we have. And I am
starting to organize a NSS project in PA (wanna join in?)

Do they need CW ops? ;-)

Not too shabby for an "mildly interested" peron, eh?

I'd hardly classify you as "mildly interested"...

It made sense for folks who were contemplating a computer purchase to
simply wait a week or two.

As it might make sense to some people to wait before getting their
licenses.

But the timeline is not as short nor as definite.

Here in southeast PA, some folks simply drive to Delaware for big taxable
purchases that are easily portable. Computers, hamgear, cameras, etc. The
big question is whether the savings offset the driving cost.

Yet our businesses survive.

No doubt, but aren't we straying a bit here?

Not at all!

Down here in southeast PA, almost everyone who understands taxation knows that
there's no sales tax in DE, while we PA folk pay 6%. (You don't want to know
about New York State!) The state line is a half-hour from most of Philly, an
hour from the most-northerly parts. Yet the local malls and stores aren't
losing significant business to their DE counterparts.

Oddly enough, more folks *will* cross the line into NJ or MD to buy cheaper
liquor, even though doing so is illegal while crossing the line to buy a
computer is not.

The code test may or may not go away in the next few years/months/decades.
The
written exams may change similarly. The various bands may change as well.

I don't think that's the problem.

The prospective amateur has *no* idea at this time if the Morse code
requirement will be kept, how long it will be kept if it is, and when it
will go away if it is discarded.

So? Someone who really wants to be a ham will do what is necessary to pass
the tests at the time.

I'd temper that. If I thought that the Morse requirement would go away
in say, 6 months, I would have waited.

Sure - but that's if you knew for sure. At this point we don't even have an
NPRM.

ARRL predicted 2 years. It's been over 14 months since WRC 2003 ended.

And most people do not expect a long time to pass before it goes away.
I know some people were incredulous when I gave my time to expiry (if
any) in that pool we had a while back.

Now if Hans, K0HB, would submit *his* proposal, we might see some action!

I reposted the list/pool. Look how many people were wrong - including me.

I'm glad I was wrong!

In as much as most people will not imagine that the changes to come will
take as long as as the will likely take, the net effect will be
potential Hams sitting and waiting for the Morse code to go away.

Maybe some will. I think most interested folks will simply learn enough to
pass the tests and get on with it.

Its certainly what I would do if I were thinking about getting a
license at this point.

But it's not what you did when you got started.

Some things operating there.

There was no code elimination horizon.

Sure there was. NCI was pushing for it, weren't they? WRC 2003 was on the
way.

Well, yeah. Remember that you are posting from the point of view of
knowing a *lot* of details. When I was a Technician, I had heard of NCI.
But I didn't know what a "WRC" was. Takes a while to assimilate all that
knowledge.

Agreed.

And I did know enough that it was a real requirement, so just the NCI
pushing for code elimination didn't hold any sway for me.

I'm skeptical enough and have enough experience that I knew it was going
to be a long time coming

I wanted to get on HF pretty badly.

I'm not afraid of learning something (even though it was admittedly very
hard for me)

You are not alone. Or even rare, despite what some naysayers would have us
believe.

And would you not get *any* license until the code test went away, or
would
you just hold off from upgrading?

Hard to say. When I originally got my license, I was only planning on
being a Technician, and I was thinking about how to apply Amateur radio
to my other hobby, Amateur astronomy. I really didn't have much interest
in HF at all! then after a field day where I was allowed to operate, I
was hooked. So my experience is likely not typical.

I disagree!

A lot of new hams come into amateur radio by such indirect routes. In my
youth,
many hams came from the ranks of SWLs.

In fact, if it
wasn't for the Technician no-code license, I probably wouldn't be a Ham
now. (to my great loss!!)

See? You would have just held off upgrading.

But we don't see that happening. The total number of Tech and Tech Pluses
is declining.

Whatever is done should be done and done quickly. That said, there is a
mile of difference between "should" and "will". I still stand by my
original prediction made some time ago.

Back in 1989-1990 we were told that a nocodetest ham license was
"absolutely
needed for growth". And when it became a reality, we got some short-term
growth
for a few years.

Then we were told that the code test had to go for the same reason - and
it
was
dropped to 5 wpm for all classes in 2000. We got some short-term growth
for
a
few years - now we're back *below* the level before the restructuring.

It isn't the code or lack of it. It is the limbo state of not knowing
what is going to happen.

I don't think changes will make for growth, except in the short term.

I think it's lack of publicity, plus competition from other activities,
plus
the loss of "honeydew hams" to cell phones and FRS/GMRS. Plus antenna
limitations, RFI, ...

I was a ham way back in 1967, when they said incentive licensing would
"kill
amateur radio". There were about 250,000 US hams back then. Yet in the 10
years
after incentive licensing took full effect (1969-1979 or thereabouts) the
number of US hams grew by about 100,000, despite poor economic conditions,
much
less accessible testing, waiting period for Extra, no code waivers and a
code
test for all hams. And no internet or computer-based training methods.

Of course. Way too much emphasis is put on all the modern conveniences
and the numbers of Hams.


A lot of folks are looking for a challenge, not a giveaway.

Oh yeah, that NSS project I'm trying to put together should be a
challenge. (wanna join up?)

Do they need CW ops?

I wouldn't care if I had to take the test,
writing on the back of a shovel with a piece of limestone, while Heidi
Klum was trying to distract me. How's that for working her into the
thread! ;^)

In my case it was Heidi and Jan Smithers fighting over me....

hmmm, I might purposely flunk just so I could retest (is there any
limit on how many tests you can take??

Nope. Of course they might have a reward for those who pass....\

One final note:

If the whole code test/limbo thing is real, why are there so few nonhams
telling FCC that they'd get a license and do great things in ham radio, except
for the code test? The vast majority of folks who make that claim are already
licensed....

73 de Jim, N2EY