On 14 Aug 2004 16:58:49 GMT, "Bob Haberkost"
wrote:

I'm not sure I agree with your count, Rich. I'm not disputing the subscriber number,
but isn't it fair to say that anyone listening to any Sirius or XM program ISN'T
listening to coventional radio. Thus, there's radio listening, and not-radio
listening (XM and Sirius). Point being that it's of no particular significance as to
WHAT program is being listened to, just that it's not radio. And using that
criteria, 3 million subscribers equates to more than 1% of the U-S population - even
more when considering only those who use radio. Isn't it fair to say that this,
assumed to be uniformly distributed, also means that Sirius and XM (assuming all
subscribers are listening at once...a big assumption, certainly) would be similar to
an in-market radio station with a 1 share, a level that many stations in
densely-served markets would consider to be a success? If this share grows by just
one order of magnitude, it's going to start hurting traditional broadcasting.

Since you're using the percentage of population figure, it wouldn't be
share. It would be rating, a much smaller figure. The percentage of
the total population listening to anything is far less than the
percentage of persons using radio at a given time.

I'm also not convinced that satellite subscribers are regular radio
listeners. If they are, they're probably not listening to satellite
exclusively and are sharing the time with conventional radio.
Remember, the traffic and weather channels serve only a small segment
of the population and fewer within that population actually listen to
it or know it exists.

I believe most satellite listeners left radio some time ago and are
sampling the new medium. Unfortunately for me much of what I disliked
about terrestrial radio has been taken to the sky: mindless, yelping
jocks on some channels mispronouncing the names of local cities I got
XM and SIRIUS to get away from the Party Martys of the world (there
are many others) only to find they're there. I turn it off just as I
turned off my FM radio before it.

But Sirius' and XM's business model doesn't require advertisers....it's subscription,
and the subscription model is more efficient than the advertiser-supported model (as
XM seems to have found out). We don't got to show you any stinkin' ad agencies, and
could care less what numbers they're looking for!

Approximately 40 of the 100 channels are commercial. I assume they
hope for some ad income. How will they convince an agency that people
are listening to commercials? There's no reverse data stream that
monitors what I listen to.

Except, you've noted, when you listen to NPR. And NPR's programming on Sirius does
do underwriting announcements, too, you know. Not exactly being deluged with
advertising matter, true, but it's still a far cry from being an advertiser-free
zone. So considering how desireable NPR listeners are, it might just be the bleeding
edge on where satellite "advertising" dollars starts seeping to.

Neither service claimed to be advertiser free. Both said that
non-music channels would carry spots. Until recently, even some music
channels did. I've always expected News, Talk and entertainment
channels would be commercial.

Part of what terrestrial radio sees as competition involves listeners
moving to some other service and advertisers doing the same. I haven't
heard any broadcaster complain that satellite radio is siphoning ad
dollars away.

Rich