Al Quaglieri wrote:
1. Internet over power lines (BPL) is a stillborn technology, arriving ten
years too late to have any impact. The explosion in broadband connectivity
is already here, and it's a wireless future. I'd be surprised if the
technology lasts more than two years, with only minor rollouts in rural
areas. The nail in the coffin will be subscribers losing their connection
every time Joe CB'er down the block keys up. I don't see BPL noise as a
factor in shortwave's future prospects.
I'm with you and Steve on this. BPL has already been tried and failed
in a number of other countries; at least one pilot project here in the
U.S. has already failed as well. Interference to/from amateurs is
occasionally cited as a reason but IMHO if the BPL operators felt they
could make money, the regulatory agencies would see to it the amateurs
went away, not the BPL.
2. One by one, the industrialized nations will find the internet a neater,
cheaper way of reaching their target audience, and their shortwave
operations will end, except for
I've my doubts the Internet will be a real viable replacement for all
shortwave anytime in the near future.
For those broadcasts intended to reach a country's citizens abroad, yes,
the Internet is probably a more economic solution. Likewise, for those
intended to reach an audience of foreigners in a developed country.
The Internet is more easily jammed (the Chinese are already doing so on
a nationwide basis) and it's far easier to monitor what people are
listening to. It will not, with current protocols, replace shortwave
for reaching audiences in countries where the government would rather
they weren't listening.
Computers may be cheap, but they're still a LOT more expensive than a
cheap radio. In isolated areas a reliable Internet connection with
adequate bandwidth might be an even bigger problem. (heck, at my
location - within 30 miles of Nashville - internet audio is problematic
due to my connection) I don't think the Internet will in the near
future replace shortwave for reaching audiences in sparsely-populated
and poor countries.
Of course, that does mean that secular broadcasts directed at rich free
nations are likely to go away. Listeners will have to develop new
skills to pull out the weak stations beaming their signals to far away
parts of the world -- and to identify the broadcasts in exotic
languages. Won't be much English - or for that matter, Spanish, French,
German, or Japanese - left.
10. Eventually, world regulatory agencies and the ITU will examine the
state of international broadcasting and see that it has turned exclusively
into a fundraising tool for bible thumpers. At this point, they will be
hard-pressed to justify maintaining the valuable spectrum allocations for
shortwave broadcasting. All of the current shortwave broadcasting bands
will shrink to 100-200 kHz apiece, and some will vanish altogether, as the
worldwide demands for digital data spectrum increases.
Don't really see much demand for spectrum for data on shortwave. (VHF &
especially microwave are a different story!) It's not easy to reliably
transfer significant amounts of data over shortwave; SW transmission
will be very much a last resort. So many of the point-to-point users
have shifted to satellites. I think the allotments will largely stay
put. I could even see a point where the FCC concludes a segment could
be opened for "amateur broadcasting", where "pirates" could operate
legally as long as they keep their power down to a reasonable level.
--
Doug Smith W9WI
Pleasant View (Nashville), TN EM66
http://www.w9wi.com