"Steve" wrote in message
om...

I'll tell everybody what I honestly see happening to shortwave.
There
will be 4-5 Big Boys, major stations that broadcast in every major
language and can be heard almost anywhere, like Radio China and
Radio
Netherlands. Then there will be a zillion Little Guys, small
regional
stations that broadcast only to a relatively local audience and
almost
none of which will be in English-but in local languages and
dialects.
This will mean the death of QSLing, since Big Boys will have paid
monitors and Little Guys won't have the money or language skills
to
answer their reception reports. But if you're not a QSL hog, it
will
mean wonderful opportunities for DX, since a lot of the blowtorch
stations that characterized the Cold War will be gone or on the
air
under different names and reduced power (think Radio Kiev, which
is now
Ukraine Radio International and is hard to hear, or Radio Tirana,
which
used to be infamous for its bizarre rants but is now almost
inaudible)
opening up opportunities to hear signals that during the Cold War
were
blanked by the blowtorches. I've never sent for a QSL in my life,
so I'm
not concerned about reception reports, but I'll be listening for
the
small Sam Neua station in Laos that Passport talked about in the
2005
edition as long as their transmitter doesn't burn the station
down. Most
of the world's population can't afford internet access or
satellite
radio and will not be able to in the foreseeable future. A lot of
those
people live outside the range of existing AM and FM stations. So
shortwave radio will be around for a while, just not in the form
that it
was during the Cold War.


Interesting. I agree with much of this, but I think there will be
more
major broadcasters. I wasn't at all surprised when the Swiss pulled
out because of the nature of their programming. My sense was that
their programs were designed to prop up their tourism industry and,
if
so, that's something they can do more efficiently via the internet.
However, if a country, group or institution has a real message to
get
out, I don't think the internet, all by itself, is enough. In other
words, I don't think they'll be content to put up a website and wait
for people to stumble across it. They'll want to take a more
proactive
approach to securing an international audience. Satellite radio is a
possibility, but so is shortwave, depending on the nature of the
audience they hope to reach.

But maybe I'm missing something. I'm not used to being the
'optimist'
in connection with any issue, but I appear to be just that where the
future of shortwave is concerned.

There are several problems with relying on the
internet:

-If you are a broadcaster moving to the internet
only, you are abandoning the people who can't afford
to access the internet. If your target audience is
on the internet, then that makes sense. If it's not,
then you've lost that audience; permanently, most
likely. Someone will fill that void, but if that
new broadcaster has a differing point of view
than you...

-Unlike shortwave where a listener can randomly tune
the bands and can find something interesting, you
actually have to search to find Radio Swiss International.
The internet is a true equalizer, but if you are a
broadcaster and are used to people happening upon
your station, you're going to be sadly disapppointed.
People have to actively seek you out on the
internet, as there is simply so much there that
a broadcaster won't fall into an internet user's
lap..

-A corollary to #2 above is that the internet plays
a part in dividing people just as well as uniting
people. If you are on the net, you don't have to
be exposed to opposing points of view if you don't
want to, and you can choose to stay in your own
little world and believe anything you read if you
wish. You can do that with shortwave, too, but
if you get the shortwave "bug", by nature you'll
be exposed to different ideas by trying to listen
to various stations.

In it's own way, the print media is finding that
trying to get people to subscribe to their websites
(Washington Post comes to mind) when other items
are free is a big drawback, and that I'd imagine
that big shortwave broadcasters will find out the
same rather shortly.

--Mike L.