I don't agree. After the code speed requirement was lowered in the US, a
lot of
new upgrades happened, probably more than would have happened if they
didn't
lower the speed. Ham radio didn't fall apart as many had predicted.

Also, you have to remember that just because they drop the code, doesn't
mean
every ham that doesn't have HF privilages will upgrade, and out of those
that
do, how many have the money and space for HF radios and antennas? If
anything,
10 meters might show an increase due to the large number of cheap "export"
radios (illegal here in the US though) and the simplicity of a 10m
vertical
(little to no tuning required of an 11m CB antenna to get it on 10m and CB
antennas are cheap).

I think you give too little credit to the hams that can't currently talk
on HF.
There's been restictions in place to make it hard to get on HF for a long
time,
and look at the quality of some of the "old timers" or "REAL" hams talking
on
160, 80, 40... An influx of new hams into the HF band might just make it a
little more enjoyable. However, with anything in life, the more people you
involved, the greater the number of idiots you'll encounter. It's just
life,
not ham radio.

Yes, I agree with your point from the "existing hams" view... it was the
'open floodgate' idea about the general non-ham public that I was rooting
in. I mean that many repeater users don't upgrade to HF because they don't
want to learn code at all, but did have the willpower jump on the 5wpm thing
since there were suddenly no more code obstacles to loom over them. (i.e.
the new upgrades were current hams moving up, not outside people coming in.)
Mine was an outside-looking-in point.
Heck, look at my upgrade date to General class (KC8CPK), If I'm not mistaken
I did my 13wpm test about 30 days or less BEFORE the change. But only for
bragging rights.... not because I love code. I could have just waited a few
weeks and took the written only. Anyway...
Ham radio as a whole seems to be withering away.....
Had a nasty argument with the president of the local dying, struggling ham
club of 18 paying members, of which, only 12 owned a radio, and of that 12,
only 9 have a radio that will get past the "lock" we put on the repeater.
(we went CTCSS due to pagers). And, of course, of that 9, a whopping 7
required a visit from myself and my buddy to program the PL into their
radios.
As a matter of fact, 2 people quit the club when we put PL on the repeater
because they didn't think it was fair for us to force them to have to buy a
new radio... (NONE even toyed with the idea of an external PL board..... not
fair to make them do that, either.)
Pres. is a 65yr old ham, on air over 20 years as a Tech plus. I was going to
start an ARES group and he opposed it saying it would cut the throat of the
current struggling club. He had no understanding of what I had planned and
saw it as a threat.
Comments were made:
"Just how do you plan on having a club with no repeaters?"
"Why can't we just work with the civil defense with our current club?"
and a host of other equally enlightened remarks... and if you didn't catch
that, this man has been a ham for 20+years and is held in very high regard
by the club members that keep voting him into the pres. position.
THAT is what's wrong with ham radio..... well, that and the ever-popular
power trip, too-many-chiefs-not-enough-indians,
callsign-on-a-repeater-is-my-claim-to-fame syndrome. Yes, you are right...
unfortunately too many people with too much time and too much personality
are drawn to hobbies like this and it does make it difficult.
But, priorities are different for everyone. Ham radio is not even in my top
10, but I do enjoy it a lot, mostly HF.
rb