RadioBanter - View Single Post

March 1st 05, 09:25 PM

wrote
Michael Coslo wrote:

snip

My own take on the situation is that there are indeed new people
coming into the hobby, as I hear and see new licensees on the air.

Yep. Same here.

But we are not seeing significant growth. Many of the people that
signed on ten years ago have left. There are some ham related
reasons, and some not, such as increased cell phone usage, which has decimated
the "honeydew" Hams.

There's also the sad fact of things like hams becoming SKs and moving
into nursing homes, etc.

Back in the '50s and '60s, and maybe even into the '70s, almost all new
hams were teenagers or young adults. Young people still make up a good
percentage of new hams, but since about the mid-late 1970s we've seen
an increasing percentage of older people as newcomers. Indeed, back in
the early 1980s - *before* the Tech lost its code test - there was (and
still is) a surge of retired and almost-retired folks in these parts
getting ham licenses. Lots of new faces and lots of great hams, but
unfortunately most of them won't be hams long enough to join OOTC.

The Demographic shift in Amateur Radio is similar to many other
hobbies/avocations. I think once the dust settles, the typical new ham
will be in his or her 40's, and wanting to have a new pursuit after
becoming financially stable and perhaps having a bit more spare time in
his hands.

The exact same thing has already happened in my other hobby, Amateur
Astronomy.

But it is indisputable that the reductions in requirements have NOT
had any sort of significant positive impact on the Ham community.

Not long-term, anyway.

Despite the hand wringing, there is a place for achieving something
that means something. A test that is a challenge? So what? I
personally think that the ARS is only strengthened by attracting people that
enjoy a bit of a challenge.

That's a key point.

I think it has been adequately proven that many if not most of the
people that think that Element one needs to go away are also in favor
of reduced overall licensing requirements. Certainly the leading
organization for removal of the Morse test is.

Yep. And if Element 1 is removed, and we still don't get growth, guess
what's next? NCVEC has already shown their hand.

Let us not forget NCI.

Note that almost 5 years after the 200 restructuring we still
retain more than 50% of Novices and 75% of Advanceds.

This indicates to me a significant number of inactive hams. Sure, there
are some who are satisfied with their license privs, but I suspect a
lot more are SK or have dropped out.

Pretty much

The number of Techs continues to grow in part because all Tech Pluses
have been renewed as Techs since April 2000. But the total number of
Techs and Tech Pluses is s few percent lower than it was in 2000.

Agreed! But of course people have to know what ham radio *is* to
do that!

Someone suggested some short commercial spots on time.

"on time"?

Typo! "one" time...

I wonder if that
has ever been done. Nothing too elaborate, just getting the
name out there.

Good idea, but expensive.

Seems like there are Hams that are professionals in the field that
might be willing to help!......

Still have to buy the time.

I would bet that a well thought out program could get some public
service spots on local access TV.

I guess I'm not inspiring you yet? 8^)

Yet the NCVEC folks say the solution is to create a class of ham
that
can't use rigs with more than 30 volts on the electronics...

Goofy, goofy, goofy!

Tell it to NCVEC. They think they know better than you.

From what I gather, their underlying concern was actually that they
think their VE's were having to work too hard.

Perhaps. Also, the "Amateur Radio in the 21st Century" paper equated
passing the code test with winning the Tour de France or painting the
Mona Lisa,

Wow! now I feel really great about passing!!! ;^)

and described the stress of dealing with grown people crying
because they'd flunked the code test....boo-hoo....

Funny you should mention that. the first time I took element 1... and
flunked... I was not pleased, but Figured I'd do it again, the person
who was the most upset was the VE. I felt worse for him than myself.

And it is the wrong approach. The proper approach is to allow

access

coupled with adequate education.

Watta concept!

Probably hopeless though! 8^)

Not unless we stop opposing bad ideas.

Shrub says hydrogen is the answer. Oh the humanity.

Hydrogen's energy density issues make for some problems. That

Excursion

will have to tack on another 10 miles per hour on trips to make up

for

all the fuel stops needed.

Naw, just liquefy the stuff.

Yoiks! Liquid H? Even if, the energy density is still quite a bit less
than gasoline. something like 25 percent.

Storage concerns are a big problem with the stuff. In a similar fashion
We have Natural gas buses in our area. Their tanks are on the bus roof,
and run the length of the bus. You just can't get as much energy out of
the stuff.

The big problems a

- Handling a fuel that is a gas at STP is more complex than one that is
a liquid.

- Danger of fire and leaking pressure tanks

- Where's all the hydrogen supposed to come from?

Yup. While seawater might seem like the obvious way out, hydrolysis of
seawater produces interesting byproducts.

Now tell the people in the western US that you want to take a huge
amount of their fresh water!! 8^) It is in short enough supply as it is.

You mean like dragging the gay marriage issue into the Social
Security problem? 8^)

Yep. The interesting thing is that allowing gay civil unions would
*increase* tax revenue.

And speaking of marriage: One thing I find interesting is that the
divorce rates in the "red" states are consistently and clearly

higher

than the rates in "blue" states. Seems those folks who rant and

rave

about "family values" and "covenants" can't seem to stay hitched

very

long.

All you have to do is meet some of the "reds", and you'll immediately
understand why they have such a high divorce rate......

Ya gotta be more specific than that!

hehe, when I think of the modern conservative, I keep getting this
vision od Old man Newt.

Here's the kind of thinking being put forth:

One plan being suggested in DC is for the USA to create a special
savings account for each baby born in the USA, starting on a

certain

date. The Feds would put $2000 into each account each year until

the

kid reaches 18. Total investment $36,000. Assuming about 6% annual
interest, each account would be worth over a million dollars when

the

"baby" reached 65.

Nice retirement package, huh? Except it won't work for several

reasons

completely obvious to anyone with common sense.

Who pays that 6 percent interest?

That's the first problem.

The last time I checked, the rate
wasn't anywhere near that.

Bingo!

Taxes on that money? Capital gains?

The money would be tax exempt until the person began to draw upon it.

Inflation?

That's a BIG one!

~30 years ago, when I was entering the job market out of college,
entry-level engineers with degrees were making about what *minimum
wage* is now. Go back 50 years, and a $5000/yr income put the average
person on Easy Street, able to support a middle-class family in a way
that $50,000/yr won't do today.

Even if inflation stays low over the next 65 years, $1 million won't be
enough to retire on. What really matters, of course, is what I call
"differential interest" - the difference between inflation and the
apparent interest rate. If you get interest of 6% and inflation of 2%,
your money is really only growing at a rate of 4%.

Your going to have to have some sort of way that the guvmint
pays interest on the account when the prime is low, or you will be
creating a powerful incentive for citizens to want a high interest

rate

which is counterproductive to the economy......The list goes on and

on.

Yep.

Also interesting how everyone in the US will retire a millionaire!

Sounds good until the reality cuts in. There are lots of millionaires
today - on paper anyway.

Ain't gonna work!

Yet that isn't some wild-eyed idea - it's something our alleged
leadership has suggested!

Hey yeah! The stock Market always goes up over the long term, right?
While that may be true, people keep applying it to irrelevant issues.
This case is just one of using interest in a way that sounds good if you
don't look too deep.

By the way, did you know the producer of the "Swiftboat Veterns" is now
producing smear videos and literature against the AARP? The same people
they eagerly worked with a year or two earlier.

no shame, at long last, no shame.

Consider these other problems:

If there are, say, 4 million births per year, the govt. will need to
put $8 billion into the accounts the first year, $16 billion the second
year, $24 billion the third year, etc. This won't stabilize until the
18th year, when it reaches $144 billion per year being put aside in
these accounts. Most of that money would have to come from *new*
revenue sources, because the existing Social Security system would have
to continue to exist for a while. And that's based on *no* increase in
baby production!

Where's all that money supposed to come from?

Tax cuts.

Then there's the question of shenanigans. Some people will try to beat
the system in one way or another. More likely are govt. shenaningans -
it will be hard for the pols to keep their paws off all that money in
the accounts, just as they can't leave Social Security alone. Remember
that the *real* problem with Social Security is that the current
administration doesn't want to pay back what was borrowed! What's to
keep them from "borrowing" from the new system?

Nada.

- Mike KB3EIA -