You have it just about right running dogg. Good collection of points here.

running dogg wrote:

Li Changchun wrote:


"uncle arnie" wrote
How much western debt does China hold? I think it is quite high,
particularly for the USA. This would mean grave economic problems for
the west if China is "on the verge of collapse".

Hardly, in case of a China banking collapse financial arrangements can
always be made.
We are talking about paper after all. Not gold bullion. Perhaps WalMart
stock
will collapse but the $US always rallys in times of serious worldwide
calamity.
The Chinese $Yuan may become worthless.

The Chinese are currently financing the US government. They hold a BIG
chunk of US debt. The West has shifted all its manufacturing facilities
to China so in the event of a China collapse there might be serious
shortages of most goods. I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

As for N Korea, they are so
disconnected from the world, no-one would notice except for those of us
who
like the comedy of their SW broadcasts.

You are seriously mistaken. If the hermit kingdom collapses there will
be a human
tragedy on the peninsula. The economic costs to S.Korea will be worse
than
what Germany has had to endure since the fall of the Berlin wall.
Assuming
hoards of refugees begin to cross the DMZ. Which is very likely.

The DMZ is the most fortified border on earth. The North Koreans have
gone to great lengths to make sure that nobody crosses. I'm not so sure
that hordes of refugees will be flooding across.

Then there is the geo-political question. Will China invade N.Korea and
claim
its territory for repayment of decades of economic support? Or will China
allow
a free and Democratic state to prosper on its economically suffering
Northeast
border with the peninsula? If so it would be a first as well as a
strategic blow
to the Communist regime in Beijing.

I don't think you'd see a democracy spring up in NK. They've had 60
years of harsh Stalinist rule. You'd more likely see a situation like in
Afghanistan before the Taliban, with a lot of local party bosses
becoming warlords and establishing fiefdoms. China may send troops to
ensure "stability". But I don't think China will invade South Korea. The
US is a major trading partner for China; the CCP is NOT going to start a
nuclear war with the US in the name of Communism.

China historically prefers weak, non-threatening regimes as neighbors and
works
to maintain its supremacy over all its immediate neighbors.

Korean history extends into what is now Northeast China. There are
Korean
claims to these lands. China is well aware of these claims and has
summarily
rewrote its history books in an attempt to erase these claims.

The best scenario for the West would be if one collapses immediately
followed by the other. Neither regime would stand which is why China
will not pressure N.Korea in regard to nuclear negotiations. China can
very easily resolve the nuclear issue since all of N.Korea's energy comes
from China. Simply turn off a spigot and flick the big switch and Kim
Jong Il
is complete history.

If China thinks they can keep Kim from nuking Seoul, they may be sadly
mistaken. Unlike the massive bureaucracy that Communism has become in
China, in NK Kim is the end all and be all of government. He is totally
cut off from the rest of the world and lives in a dream world and is
much more likely to start a war with the US to "free" SK. If the US is
forced to invade NK because of Kim, the US will likely reach a quid pro
quo with the Chinese, keeping the Yalu River as the boundary between US
and Chinese troops. The mutual trade between China and the US means that
all out war between the two is not likely, even if China invades Taiwan.
The US establishment is not willing to have a nuclear war over Taiwan or
Korea.



Li Changchun wrote:

junk snipped

N.Korea

N. Korea launches harsh crackdown
(interesting read)



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