"running dogg" wrote

What you are likely to see in China is the collapse of their banks,
which
are
already insolvent and technically bankrupt, and the disentigration of
the
CCP.
Neither of which will likely spell the end of their manufacturing base.
In
the very short term there may be disruptions but it would quickly
recover
and without the CCPoverhead possibly become much more robust.

Possibly. But China has a tradition of warlord rule, and for much of its
history has been broken into feuding fiefdoms, despite the common
culture and language of the Chinese people. Then again, the same
situation persisted in Italy for a thousand years, and that country is
now stable and prosperous.

China has been under the CCP's vicious rule for over half a century.
There are very few to zero individuals still alive in China who are even
remotely aware of its pre-CCP history - they have been brainwashed.
Very few individuals in any sense of power know anything else but
CCP burocracy let alone some type of organized civil war.

The argument that the CCP provides "stability" and the people would
succumb to civil warfare is warn out CCP propaganda. If anything, a
collapse of the CCP form of government would bring the nation together
to rebuild a more Democratic form of government.

Chinese people are not ignorant pheasants like many seem to make them
out to be. Take a look at your University and its graduate and PHD
students, especially in the math & sciences. I willing to bet that a
significant percentage are Taiwanese or mainland Chinese. Granted, a
large majority still live very poorly in the countryside. But today, the
average urban citizen is fairly worldly considering the amount
of censorship in media.

Please review the circumstances that revolved around Tiananmen Square
in 1989 and please tell me if what you have seen there looked anything like
a civil war? It wasn't even close and the military came out with blood all

over them. This give credence to the propaganda about "stability" and its
irrelevence to China today.

I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

Your love of the CCP has seriously blinded you to a brutal murderous
regime
which is deeply hated by their own people.

You seem to make this same curious error over and over again, equating
any concern about China's stability and potential disruptions to the
west if that stability were to be disrupted with love of the CCP.

You seem to have swallowed the CCP propaganda hook, line and sinker.
The CCP keeps spouting this same B.S. over and over again. I guess
if it is repeated often enough people, like you, will believe it. This
is a big insult to the Chinese people. The Chinese people don't need the
CCP. In fact the opposite is true!

I
doubt most westerners love the CCP, I sure don't. But it's the only
thing holding the country together. Like I said, China has a long,
bloody history of warlordism and civil war, and any collapse of the CCP
might bring a return to the bad old days. This bad situation-a brutal
dictatorship being the only thing keeping the world's most populous
country from sliding into chaos-is exacerbated greatly by the fact that
China now has virtually ALL of the world's industrial capacity. There is
no more industrial base in America, Europe, Japan. It's all been moved
to China.

I'm sorry old boy, but this is pure garbage and sounds very much like what
is written in the CCP run newspapers in Beijing - I'm not joking. There are
many able countries that will quikely and happilly "tool up" to fill
American
orders for product. Prices may rise but to what degree will be determined
by the marketplace as it should. That assumes that there will be some kind
of collapse of its manufacturing base. That is highly unlikely considering
the involvement of western interests and western company presence.

If China descends into chaos the rest of the world will go
with it. Blame your beloved capitalists for being too willing to cozy up
to a regime that could be toppled by a mass movement like Falun Gong and
that allows massive pollution and 10 cent a day wages.

Ah ha! Now you are talking! Those big bad Capitalists again. LOL
I'll go on a political limb here and will tell you this much.
Had dear leader Nixon and Kissinger NOT reproached Deng Xiaoping
to "open up", the USSR would still be in existence today. Why? Because
the USSR would likely be profiting from China's growth all this time.
Albeit
not as robust.

Deng Xiaoping knew China had to open up to avoid an economic disaster that
we
now see in N.Korea. If the US wasn't economically friendly with China it
would have looked elsewhere and anywhere to accomplish this economic goal.
China would have solicited economic development from any CCP friendly
country
including our enemies. N.Korea is an example of this idea - selling missile
technology (from China likely) to Pakistan, Iran and Syria. Money
counterfeiting
and drug trafficking to name a few. Hardly a comforting alternative to the
west.

Nixon and Kissinger knew this and made a brilliant move by isolating the
USSR.

*** The idea to engage China is a valid one. However, the moral and ethical
degree to
which this engagement has progressed by the Capitalists is now questionable
in
my opinion. *** I think that there is now some realization of this within
the US
House and Senate.

If the N.Korean side of the DMZ becomes demilitarized because of a
regime
colapse you can be sure that waves of refugees will find a way across or
around
it. China would also see refugees.

Maybe to start with there would be a lot of North Koreans attempting to
cross, but it might die down after a while. There was no massive refugee
crisis when European Communism collapsed. Most of the East Germans who
fled into West Berlin right after the wall came down eventually went
back home.

I would suspect that after a reunification on the peninsula the phenomenon
will
likely repeat itself there. Unemployment will rise and the deficit will
rise. It
will be a difficult time for the Koreans but not impossible. ref: Germany.

I didn't say that another centralized dictatorship would take hold, I
said that the country would descend into warlord rule and possibly civil
war. There is a difference.

After a reconsiliation with the South I highly doubt there will be
widespread
civil unrest. These people have been under Dear Leaders thumb for a very
long time and would have very little resources or even a will to pull it
off.

But I don't think that it would trigger a western invasion of NK.

There won't be a "military" invasion. There will likely be some kind of
Korean - Chinese - Japanese - Russian & US cooperation with UN
involvment and guidance.

Has it occured to you that whomever overthrows Kim Jong Il may well be
"friendly" with the South?

You're assuming that a pro Western ruler replaces Kim. But I'm saying
that no ruler may replace Kim, that NK would break up instead, and that
would likely be much worse than a pro West regime in the North being
toppled by the Chinese.

What I am saying is that there is some evidence of certain elements in the
N.Korean military which would like to remove Dear Leader. These elements
seem to be aware of N.Korea's economic predicament and are more willing
to reproach the south with fewer conditions than Dear Leader impresses.
As I said earlier the Dear Leader is a proxy, puppet if you will, of China.
It is certainly clear. As China has all the strings neccessary to "pull the
plug"
on Dear Leader but refuses to do so as evidenced in the latest "round of
talks".
This is clear indication of a certain level of resistance within the CCP
towards
a pro-South reunification outcome.

A reminder - recall the recent massive railroad station explosion which
occured
within hours after the Dear Leaders return from Beijing. The Dear Leader is
afraid
to fly! Should make you ponder.

It's possible, but there would be enough loyalists to go ahead with the
Bomb drop and force a US invasion.

In which case the US would have a green light - not something China wishes
to
contend with I am sure you will agree.

In any case, nuclear weapons aside, the Korean peninsular would become
the immediate focus of attention in the West and Beijing and Seoul would
have many urgent and pressing meetings to attend.

This at least is true.