wrote in message
ups.com...

SNIP

The fact is that in every election there are several groups:

1) Those who will vote Republican no matter what
2) Those who will vote Democrat no matter what
3) Those who won't vote, or will vote for a 3rd party candidate
with absolutely no real chance of winning, no matter what
4) Those who are truly independent, and who may vote Democrat,
Republican, 3rd party, or not at all, depending on a wide variety of
factors, and whose votes really can decide an election.

Successful campaigning is all about identifying the 4th group, and
getting them to vote for your candidate.
73 de Jim, N2EY

Not quite that simple. I would agree with all of the above
where both parties present a candidate that is "reasonable"
across a broad brush of party faithfuls. Where things go wrong
is when a candidate goes beyond the point of reasonableness
on one or more issues as judged by others in the party.

Yes, there are many people who "appear" to be in groups
1 or 2, but **** any of them off and they too will jump ship and
either not vote at all (many people vote put don't vote
for all possible positions on a ballot), they'll vote for
a 3rd party...or write-in Mickey Mouse... or they'll
vote for the other party's candidate as many Dems did by
voting for Reagan in 80 and 84.

One other variable on a 4 year basis. From one presidential
election to the next, there is a considerable loss of existing voters
who have died and an influx of "new" voters who have reached
18 years of age, become naturalized citizens or just finally
registered to vote for the first time. Far more people today
as new voters tend to view themselves as "independents"
rather than being staunch democrats or republicans.

Cheers,
Bill