wrote:
From: "K4YZ" on May 11, 10:15 am
wrote [in response to W3RV]:

Note the statements on the
www.hamdata.com webpage in regards to statistics:
TECHNICIAN class license totals have been
increasing at a rate of 26 per day! [that's about
four times faster than the combined General and
Extra class increases of 6 per day]

Does that 26 per day include Technician Pluses renewed as
Technicians? Does it include the Novices who pass Element 2 and get
a "Tech-with-HF"?

On the license class totals, it is interesting to
compare (via Hamdata) those of 11 May 05 versus
those of two years prior:

2005 2003
Both Tech Classes - 350,566 348,749
All four others - 373,171 378,994
Total, all classes - 723,737 727,743

Percentage of Techs - 48.44 47.92

Comparison of Growth, 2005 v. 2003

Gain or Loss, Techs - +1,817
Gain or Loss, other four - -5,823

Gain or Loss, all licensees -4,006

Very interesting!

But note that the hamdata.com numbers include licenses
that are expired but in the grace period. They also
include club and other non-operator licenses. The numbers I
post here twice a month include only current, unexpired licenses
held by individuals.

I think the totals I post are a more accurate snapshot of the
license situation than the numbers on hamdata.com, because the
inclusion of expired-but-in-the-grace-period licenses skews the
totals considerably.

It should be noted that the peak of U.S. amateur
radio license numbers was on 2 Jul 03 with a total
of 737,938 then (number of club calls not known).
The Hamdata statistics are derived automatically
by downloading the publicly-available FCC database
(massive in size) and sorting for classes.

How massive?

Let's look at some other numbers:

These are the numbers of current, unexpired amateur licenses held
by individuals on the stated dates:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice - 49,329 (7.31%)
Technician - 205,394 (30.44%)
Technician Plus - 128,860 (19.09%)
General - 112,677 (16.70%)
Advanced - 99,782 (14.79%)
Extra - 78,750 (11.67%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.53%)

Total General/Advanced/Extra - 291,209 (43.16%)

Total Novice/General/Advanced/Extra - 340,538 (50.47%)

Total all classes - 674,792

As of April 30, 2005:

Novice - 28,604 (decrease of 20,725) (4.29%)
Technician - 268,116 (increase of 62,722) (40.23%)
Technician Plus - 49,987 (decrease of 78,873) (7.50%)
General - 136,783 (increase of 24,106) (20.52%)
Advanced - 76,410 (decrease of 23,372) (11.46%)
Extra - 106,577 (increase of 27,827) (15.99%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 318,103 (decrease of 16,151) (47.73%)

Total General/Advanced/Extra - 319,770 (increase of 28,651) (47.98%)

Total Novice/General/Advanced/Extra - 348,374 (increase of 7,836)
(52.27%)

Total all classes - 666,477 (decrease of 8,315)

The increase in both Technician classes is not
"dramatic" but it IS an increase and has NOT
stopped as some amateur extras claimed "would
happen" after the 12-year elapse from the 1991
creation of the (no-code-test) Technician class.

Who claimed that would happen? I sure didn't.

At 48.44 percent of ALL current licensees, that
IS a very large percentage and is constantly
approaching a MAJORITY (it hasn't stopped
increasing in 14 years).

Not really.

The number of current Tech/Tech Plus licenses held by
individuals is now over 16,000 *less* than it was just
5 years ago. It is trending *away* from a majority - if you look
at the number of current, unexpired licenses.

The percentage of US hams with a current, unexpired Tech or Tech Plus
license has dropped by 1.8% in the past 5 years. The percentage of US
hams with a current, unexpired General, Advanced or Extra license has
grown by 4.82% in the same time period.

Of course some of that growth is Novices and Tech Pluses upgrading
to General or Extra. And some of it is new hams who don't let the
current license requirements stop them.

It should be obvious (but is not to some closed
mindsets) that the "other four" classes (Novice,
General, Advanced, Extra) have had their totals
DROP in numbers.

Yet in the 5 years since restructuring, the opposite is true - the
number of Techs/Tech Pluses has dropped and the number of the "other
four" has increased.

The "other four" all require
morse code testing.

So does a Tech Plus, but you count them as Techs. You also count
licenses that are expired but in the grace period as if they were
current licenses.

The no-longer-issued-new
Novice and Advanced classes dropped by 11,649 but
the General and Extra classes gained only 5,826.
The net change in the "other four" is -5,823.
The two-year growth in both Technician classes
is NOT enough to stem the 4,006 loss in licenses
overall in two years.

And the significance of this is?

The (no-code-test) Technician class licensee is
FORBIDDEN to operate below 30 MHz.

Only if they have not passed Element 1.

A Technician
Plus licensee is permitted below 30 MHz only if
they have taken a morse code test.

Of course Technician
Pluses who renew as Technicians keep their HF privileges, and
Technicians who pass Element 1 get them, even though their
licenses don't change class.

So an unknown number of "Technicians" can legally operate on some HF
amateur bands. Also, any amateur with a Technician Plus or Novice
license, current, grace period, or expired, can get a General or Extra
without any further code testing.

What's your point in all this, Len? You give a lot of numbers but never
seem to say why they matter.

And why does all this concern you so much? You're not a radio
amateur, and it appears that you'll never become one either -
your "out of the box" claim of almost 5-1/2 years ago notwithstanding.