wrote in message
oups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:

In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear
that they expect any Tech
not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs)
to take the General exam and
upgrade to get HF privileges.

Interesting - in many ways!

For one thing, there would still be two kinds of
Technicians - those with HF and those without.


Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees
are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more
privileges, they show that development by upgrading.

But more telling would be how many Techs would
get Generals or Extras in order to get HF.


I think that will indeed be very interesting. I was plotting the data from
the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble
in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The
only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the
Extra.

We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the
5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many
Techs upgrade and how many don't.


My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not
upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either
don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so
won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested
in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in
the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while.

Dee D. Flint, N8UZE