From: Dee Flint on Jul 28, 6:04 pm

wrote in message
Dee Flint wrote:

In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear
that they expect any Tech
not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs)
to take the General exam and
upgrade to get HF privileges.

Interesting - in many ways!

For one thing, there would still be two kinds of
Technicians - those with HF and those without.

Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point that licensees
are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more
privileges, they show that development by upgrading.

"...NPRM bore down heavily..."? Heh, you must have a different
copy than I do. :-)

Did your copy include the mailing address of the "amateur
community?" :-)


But more telling would be how many Techs would
get Generals or Extras in order to get HF.

I think that will indeed be very interesting. I was plotting the data from
the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble
in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and temporary. The
only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the
Extra.

Oh, ohhhh...the AH0A website is hardly an "objective" one
considering that Joe Speroni is a resolute PRO-Code Test
Advocate!

"The only class that is steadily increasing significantly" is
Extra?!?

At present, the Amateur Extra class is 109,543 or 15.17% of the
total of individual licensees (source: www.hamdata.com, FCC
numbers for 0416 UTC on 28 July 2005). In two years' time, the
Amateur Extra class licensees increased by 3,518. In that same
time, Technician class licensees increased by 18,617. [Tech has
been increasing about nine thousand per year since Restructuring]

Are you, as an "engineering pro" trying to flim-flam that the
ratio between Technician and Extra of 5.31:1 means the "Extra
is increasing more rapidly?!?"

The "club" call license numbers increased by 1,050 in two years
or approximately 12.3%...which would make THAT category more
likely as the "most rapidly growing."

We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the
5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many
Techs upgrade and how many don't.

My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not
upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that either
don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the change and so
won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't really interested
in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in
the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while.

As of 0416 UTC, 28 Jul 05, there are 349,936 Technician and
Technician Plus licensees out of a total of 722,083 individual
licensees (exclusive of 9.611 club calls). That is 48.46% of
the total individual U.S. amateur radio licensees.

If one-quarter of the present Technicians "upgrades" then that
will be about 86,484. Yes, I'd imagine THAT would increase
the work of the VEs...it is about 5.4 times the normal number
of new amateur licensees granted each year.

But, on the 10-year grant period of a license, about 34,900 (give
or take) will enter the "grace period" for renewal. Considering
that is the HIGHEST number of "inferior others" in U.S. ham radio,
I'd say that ORDINARY RENEWAL would be a large "burden" on VEs.

By the way, in the last year, 16,088 NEW licensees were added
but 18,644 were expired. That's a delta of -2,556 in one year.
That loss has also been consistent.

Not to worry, you won't read this anyway (my postings are "too
horrid" to respond to, you once said). :-)

dit dot