N2EY:

I think that is excellent, indeed, I think they should start at general with
HF.
Here is a link to all the correct answers for the general test:
http://blake.prohosting.com/mailguy2/generaltest.txt

If they simply can't memorize these correct answers, they have no business
being generals in arrl's army!

John

wrote in message
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Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
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Dee Flint wrote:

In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear
that they expect any Tech
not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs)
to take the General exam and
upgrade to get HF privileges.

Interesting - in many ways!

For one thing, there would still be two kinds of
Technicians - those with HF and those without.

Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point
that licensees
are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more
privileges, they show that development by upgrading.

The problem is that such an implementation of the concept
contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons!

The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech-with-HF
is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not. The latter
has some HF privileges and the former has none.

The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and proposes
to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it
follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not
what FCC proposes?!

The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for
long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long
term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only,
and require at least a General for HF.

That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of Novices is
slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to new issues.
If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to
drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually there won't
be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more
entry-level licensees with HF privileges.

Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but
such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources.

But more telling would be how many Techs would
get Generals or Extras in order to get HF.

I think that will indeed be very interesting.

Yes!

I was plotting the data from
the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the bubble
in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and
temporary. The
only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the
Extra.

Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it.

We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the
5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many
Techs upgrade and how many don't.

My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not
upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that
either
don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the
change and so
won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't
really interested
in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in
the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while.

Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the
challenge, just they did in 2000.

Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare
the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic?

73 de Jim, N2EY