Dee:

It is obvious, the FCC has chosen the "Time Solution."

Now people can grab their licenses with no problems from CW. Time passes, the
problem cures itself when all protesters have gone SK, and the real final
changes can be instituted.

It is probably the best decision given the religious zealots surrounding CW.

John

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
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Dee Flint wrote:
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Dee Flint wrote:

In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear
that they expect any Tech
not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs)
to take the General exam and
upgrade to get HF privileges.

Interesting - in many ways!

For one thing, there would still be two kinds of
Technicians - those with HF and those without.

Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point
that licensees
are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want more
privileges, they show that development by upgrading.

The problem is that such an implementation of the concept
contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons!


But it does completely satisfy those who kept hammering on no automatic
upgrades and then some as I got the impression that most would not have
minded Techs being consolidated with Tech Plus at the Tech Plus privileges
even though otherwise against automatic upgrades.

The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech-with-HF
is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not. The latter
has some HF privileges and the former has none.

The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and proposes
to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it
follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not
what FCC proposes?!

The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for
long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long
term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only,
and require at least a General for HF.


It is hard to say what the FCC was thinking. However perhaps they too are
looking at the statistics and interpret it as no need for the introductory
license to have HF privileges. Afterall the Novice are declining at a fast
enough pace that it looks like almost none are active and that almost all are
failing to renew. They can easily go into the data as they have it and see
how many Tech Pluses actually upgraded, let themselves lapse, or simply
renewed. The last indicating a low activity level and/or interest level
since they have not upgraded.

Also, they may be thinking that this keeps the minimum number to tests to get
onto HF at least at two. The Novices had to take two and Techs after April
2000 had to take two to get on HF. Prior to that, Techs had to take 3 tests
to get on HF (Novice written, Tech written, and code).

They also discussed the concept that they do not want Techs to stay at the
Tech level. They consider upgrading as a significant element in individuals
fulfilling the basis and purpose of ham radio (i.e. self training, etc).
Allowing the Technicians some HF privileges reduces the motivation to
upgrade. And the FCC repeately referred to the Techs being able to get on HF
by taking the simple written test to upgrade to General.

That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of Novices is
slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to new issues.
If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to
drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually there won't
be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more
entry-level licensees with HF privileges.


As a VE and instructor, it's been my observation that not that many Techs
bother to take the code until they are ready to upgrade to General. Of
course this is limited to the sessions that I have participated in. However
in the last 5 years, we've only tested a couple of Techs for code privileges.
And those two were not taking it as an upgrade to Tech but at the same
session with their Tech written. The rest were all trying for their General
licenses (i.e. had their General written CSCE in hand or were trying for
their General written at the same session).

Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but
such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources.


Maximum of ten years from the date of the R&O if they don't renew or upgrade.
Potentially far longer if they do renew.

But more telling would be how many Techs would
get Generals or Extras in order to get HF.

I think that will indeed be very interesting.

Yes!

I was plotting the data from
the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is easy to see on a graph the
bubble
in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and
temporary. The
only class that is steadily increasing significantly in numbers is the
Extra.

Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it.

We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the
5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many
Techs upgrade and how many don't.

My guess is that at least half the Technicians are inactive and will not
upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will probably be half that
either
don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the
change and so
won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't
really interested
in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of the Techs upgrade in
the next year, it will be quite a burden on the VEs for a while.

Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the
challenge, just they did in 2000.


Yes they will. In reality, I don't expect that we will be swamped as the
excuses will begin ("I don't have time to study right now", etc). We will
get hit with a bump in the numbers but it won't be that bad. Afterall just
look at the bump in 2000. There were something like 100,000+ Tech Pluses
and the number of upgrades while higher for a few months wasn't all that
large.

Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare
the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic?


Not really. Although as I mentioned earlier, I think under the new system,
we will gradually drift towards a de facto two class system (General & Extra)
at least among the hams who are actually active.

73 de Jim, N2EY


Dee D. Flint, N8UZE