Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
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Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
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Dee Flint wrote:

In the discussion in the NPRM, they make it clear
that they expect any Tech
not having HF privileges (i.e. codeless Techs)
to take the General exam and
upgrade to get HF privileges.

Interesting - in many ways!

For one thing, there would still be two kinds of
Technicians - those with HF and those without.

Yes there will be. The NPRM bore down heavily on the point
that licensees
are expected to continue to develop and learn and thus if they want
more
privileges, they show that development by upgrading.

The problem is that such an implementation of the concept
contradicts the FCC's own arguments and reasons!

But it does completely satisfy those who kept hammering on no
automatic
upgrades and then some as I got the impression that most would not have
minded Techs being consolidated with Tech Plus at the Tech Plus privileges even though otherwise against automatic upgrades.

Perhaps.

Or perhaps FCC thinks that anybody who really wants HF should just go
for General or Extra.

The only testing difference between a Tech and Tech Plus/Tech- with-HF
is that the latter passed Element 1 and the former did not.
The latter
has some HF privileges and the former has none.

The FCC says that Element 1 is no longer necessary, and
proposes
to remove it completely. If someone accepts that reasoning, it
follows that all Techs should have the same privileges - but that's not what FCC proposes?!

The only explanation I can think of is that FCC is looking for
long-range simplification. Perhaps what FCC wants in the long
term is for all entry-level licensees to be on VHF/UHF only,
and require at least a General for HF.

It is hard to say what the FCC was thinking. However perhaps
they too are
looking at the statistics and interpret it as no need for the
introductory
license to have HF privileges. Afterall the Novice are
declining at a fast
enough pace that it looks like almost none are active and that almost all
are failing to renew. They can easily go into the data as they have it and
see how many Tech Pluses actually upgraded, let themselves
lapse, or simply
renewed. The last indicating a low activity level and/or
interest level since they have not upgraded.

The number of upgrades isn't easily obtained from the database, though.


Also, they may be thinking that this keeps the minimum number
to tests to
get onto HF at least at two. The Novices had to take two and
Techs after
April 2000 had to take two to get on HF. Prior to that, Techs had to take 3
tests to get on HF (Novice written, Tech written, and code).

True enough!

And when you consider that the old, pre-restructuring 20 wpm *Extra*
was earned by at least one third-grader at the age of 8,
it's a bit hard to accept that the written tests are "too hard".

(OTOH, the same can be said about the code tests...)

They also discussed the concept that they do not want Techs to stay at the
Tech level. They consider upgrading as a significant element
in individuals
fulfilling the basis and purpose of ham radio (i.e. self
training, etc).
Allowing the Technicians some HF privileges reduces the
motivation to
upgrade. And the FCC repeately referred to the Techs being
able to get on
HF by taking the simple written test to upgrade to General.

It gets more and more interesting. Sounds like a rebirth of
Incentive Licensing.

Think about it: FCC saying that it's *not OK* to stay a Tech!?!
That upgrading is part of being a good ham and supporting the
Basis and Purpose...

That may sound farfetched, but consider that the number of
Novices is
slowly dropping since that license class has been closed to
new issues.
If Element 1 disappears, the number of code-tested Techs will have to
drop, too, as there won't be any more new ones. Eventually
there won't
be any of Novices or code-tested Techs left - which means no more
entry-level licensees with HF privileges.

As a VE and instructor, it's been my observation that not that many Techs
bother to take the code until they are ready to upgrade to
General. Of
course this is limited to the sessions that I have participated in. However
in the last 5 years, we've only tested a couple of Techs for
code
privileges. And those two were not taking it as an upgrade to Tech but at
the same session with their Tech written. The rest were all
trying for
their General licenses (i.e. had their General written CSCE in hand or were
trying for their General written at the same session).

Which all makes sense.

On top of that, since 1991 I have known many hams who bypassed
Novice and went to Tech with the reasoning that they could
then upgrade one step at a time, rather than having to prepare
for two tests at the same time.

Of course it will take years for all of them to disappear, but
such a system doesn't cost FCC any admin resources.

Maximum of ten years from the date of the R&O if they don't
renew or
upgrade. Potentially far longer if they do renew.

Yup. In less than 5 years there will be no more Tech Pluses in
the database even if the rules don't change.

But more telling would be how many Techs would
get Generals or Extras in order to get HF.

I think that will indeed be very interesting.

Yes!

I was plotting the data from
the ah0a site out of curiosity and it is
easy to see on a graph the
bubble
in 2000 and it is easy to see the fact that it was small and
temporary. The
only class that is steadily increasing
significantly in numbers is the
Extra.

Plain and simple fact. Can't escape it.

We'd finally see how much of a "barrier" the
5 wpm code test really is/was, by how many
Techs upgrade and how many don't.

My guess is that at least half the Technicians
are inactive and will
not
upgrade. Of the remaining portion, there will
probably be half that
either
don't hear about the change or don't hear that much about the
change and so
won't pursue it. There will also be a handful that aren't
really interested
in HF and so will not upgrade. Still if only 1/4 of
the Techs upgrade in
the next year, it will be quite a burden on the
VEs for a while.

Nobody really knows what will happen. The VEs will rise to the
challenge, just they did in 2000.

Yes they will. In reality, I don't expect that we will be
swamped as the
excuses will begin ("I don't have time to study right now",
etc). We will
get hit with a bump in the numbers but it won't be that bad.
After all just
look at the bump in 2000. There were something like 100,000+ Tech Pluses
and the number of upgrades while higher for a few months wasn't all that large.

And a lot of them were paper-only upgrades.

Another factor: if the rules do change, we will probably see a surge of
VE action as soon as the changes are announced. This
surge will be driven by two forces, as was the pre-April-2000
surge:

1) - Hams getting licenses *before* the rules change so they can
say they did

2) - Hams getting CSCEs ahead of time so that they can upgrade under
the new rules on the day the rules change. Back in April 2000, there
were several no-test VE sessions set up to handle the
CSCE surge...

Look again at the AH0A data from 2000, and from this week. Or compare
the numbers I post twice a month. Are the changes really that dramatic?


Not really. Although as I mentioned earlier, I think under the new system,
we will gradually drift towards a de facto two class system
(General &
Extra) at least among the hams who are actually active.

I disagree somewhat. Two observations:

1) Notice how slowly the Advanced is declining. 5 years and 3 months
since it was closed to new issues, and yet the number
of Advanceds is about 75% of what it was then. This is despite
the attrition to expirations and the written-test-only upgrade to
Extra.

2) The number of Generals surged after 2000, but is not growing
anymore. General has become a intermediate step on the way to Extra.

What we're heading for may be more of a 4 class system -
Tech/General/Advanced/Extra.

If we do get a de facto 2 class system, it will probably
be more like Tech/Extra rather than General/Extra.

73 de Jim, N2EY