wrote:
Barry OGrady wrote:
On Thu, 28 Sep 2006 22:54:46 -0500, Nada Tapu wrote:
On Sun, 10 Sep 2006 23:23:03 GMT, Slow Code wrote:

Or just lazy people out?

It certainly didn't keep me out, and I wasn't all that crazy about
learning it, either.

More to the point, are there more licensed amateurs since the code requirement
was removed years ago?

Yes. In the USA at least.

The number of US hams peaked a few years ago, and is now below what it
was in 2000.

Since the inception of the no-code Technician class here in 1991,
the growth of the Technician class license numbers in the USA
has been continuous.

It was also continuous before the Technician lost its code test.

Those now comprise about 49 % of ALL
licensees.

Actually, as of October 1, 2006, the number of Technicians was 285,709
out of 656,481 US hams. Those are the number of individuals holding
current, unexpired, FCC-issued amateur licenses. Technicians account
for 43.5% of US hams, not 49%.

The Technician class license numbers are twice that
of General class, the next-largest license class.

131, 945 General Class licenses as of the same date as above.

It should be noted, however, that since April 15, 2000, the FCC has
been renewing all Technician Plus licenses as Technicians. Thus, the
Technician class is composed of some hams who have not passed a Morse
Code test, and some who have.

The Technician Plus class numbers are steadily dropping, because that
license is not issued anymore. If the FCC does not change the rules,
there will be no more Technician Plus licenses at all in about 3-1/2
years, because they will all have either expired, upgraded, or been
renewed as Technicians.

Since the "reconstruction" in FCC amateur radio regulations of
2001, the number of licensees grew to peak in July, 2003.

??

The current rules went into effect on April 15, 2000.

The peak of 2003 is well documented. Since then the number of US
amateurs has declined to below what it was in 2000.

At
that time the maximum code test rate was fixed at 5 WPM, all
classes.

That is true.

However, back in 1990, FCC created medical waivers for the 13 and 20
wpm Morse Code tests. These waivers meant that anyone who could pass 5
wpm could bypass the higher-speed Morse Code tests by obtaining a
doctor's note.

A problem now is the attrition of the older licensees. More old-
timers are leaving/expiring (their licenses) than are being
replaced by new (never before licensed in amateur radio)
licensees. Source: www.hamdata.com. That trend has
persisted for three years.

It is true that there are more expirations than newcomers.

However, it cannot be stated with certainty whether the decline is due
to the attrition of "older licensees", or the loss of newer hams who
simply let their licenses expire.

For example, from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, a significant
number of new amateurs appeared who used amateur radio for
personal/family communications. They were very interested in VHF/UHF
repeaters, autopatch, and related activities. Most got Technician
licenses - with or without Morse Code - because that license gave
access to 2 meter and 440 MHz repeaters.

But with the appearance of inexpensive and ubiquitous cell phones, that
source of new amateurs all but disappeared.

The code test is not THE factor causing it, just one of the
major factors in slowing the increase of new licensees.

Perhaps.

But consider this:

The growth in the number of US hams from February 1991 to April 2000
was *less* than the growth from December 1981 to February 1991. (Same
amount of time, before and after the Tech lost its code test.) This is
true in both absolute numbers and percentage.

Since the restructuring of April 2000, which reduced both code and
written exams, the number of US hams has actually dropped by over
17,000.

Coupled with the stubborn resistance to change of ANY
regulations by olde-tymers, there is little incentive to enter
olde-tyme amateur radio.

What changes do you suggest, Len, besides the elimination of the code
test?

There may be little incentive for *you* to enter amateur radio, but for
thousands of others, the incentive is there.

It should be noted that in the Readex survey of 1996, the most staunch
pro-code-test age group was the *youngest* amateurs.

Ally that with the huge growth of
the Internet in the 15 years it has been public - an Internet
that has spread worldwide with near-instant communications
over that world - and the traditional standards and practices
of olde-tyme ham radio just don't have the appeal to
newcomers they once had.

Amateur radio is not the internet, and the internet is not amateur
radio. Amateur radio can only survive by offering a unique
communications experience - that is, by doing things that cannot be
done online.

It should be remembered that the growth of cell phones and low-cost
long distance phone service is another factor affecting growth. We will
not see many people getting amateur radio licenses for "honeydew"
purposes - with or without a code test.

Elimination of the code test for any license will cause a
spurt in new licensees.

Perhaps - in the short term.

While such elimination is not a
guarantee to far-future growth, it will be the significant act
to being CHANGING regulations to better fit the modern times.

It should be remembered that the dropping of the Morse Code test for
Technician back in 1991 did not result in long-term growth in numbers.

The reduction of both Morse Code testing and written testing in 2000
did not result in long-term or even medium-term growth. The numbers
grew from 2000 to 2003, then declined to a level below that of 2000.

Keeping up with changing times is a NECESSITY in
regulations, regardless of the personal desires of the minority
of amateurs making up the olde-tyme group.

What changes besides eliminating the Morse Code test are necessary to
'keep up with modern times'?

It should be remembered that, in the comments to the recent FCC NPRM,
the *majority* of those who commented did not want complete elimination
of the Morse Code test for all US licenses. The majority wanted at
least some Morse Code testing to remain.

Eliminating the Morse Code test will not greatly increase the visiblity
of Amateur Radio. It will not reduce the cost of equipment. It will not
make it any less difficult to set up an effective HF antenna, nor will
it solve RFI or CC&R problems.