"KH6HZ" wrote in
:

"K4YZ" wrote:

The written tests have been gutted for years.

Colleges that used to allow extra-curricular credit for
possessing an Amateur License no long do it

To be fair, I do not know of any college that has done this since well
before I attended undergraduate school in the early 80's. I believe
that in some cases you could (successfully) petition a school for
credit under the guise of "real life experience" being a "replacement"
for required class work. However, as a rule of thumb I do not believe
having an amateur license has given you any college credit at a
mainstream university since the mid 70's, if not before that.

PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.




Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from
now. I for one will be watching with bated breath to see
if this in-rush of new operators shows up. I say "it ain't
a hap'nin thing"

I agree, but for reasons I will outline below.


As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's
going to be an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs
to HF licenses.

I agree with the Tech upgrade aspect of your comment. If you look at
ham radio statistics on Speroni's web site, you can see that since the
restructuring that occurred in 2000, there has been a continual uptick
in "extra" class licenses and a steady decrease in other license
classes.

(The only exception to this is the Tech license, which, as the
de-facto 'entry level' license, is logically going to see the most
growth. It is the first license most people obtain, and its the only
license you can get w/o the "hurdle" of the code test. Thus, the Tech
license is the 30mhz equivalent of the Extra-class license, in the
sense that w/o element 1a it was the license class you "topped out"
at.)

The reason for trend simple: There is no compelling reason for an
"active" licensee *not* to upgrade to the highest grade available. The
major stumbling block for most amateurs -- the component which
required the most work to pass -- has always been the code test. Once
a licensee overcomes the hurdle of the 5wpm code test, the additional
tests to upgrade to Extra are minimal. After all, the existing theory
examinations do not actually test radio knowledge, they test your
ability to rote memorize the question pool. I daresay that

With the removal of element 1a, there is no reason for many of the
current Tech licenses to take, and pass, the theory examinations to
obtain HF privileges.

I think there will be a noticable decline in Tech licenses, and an
increase in General and Extra class tickets, as those folks migrate
into HF privileges.

I also think the amount will be less than you expect. I think the
migration will be measurable, but overall a lot less than most people
expect. Much for the same reason why the decrease in the General
license has been steady, but minimal each month. Many people are
satisfied with the operating privileges they have, and they have no
need to upgrade further. Those Techs who have no intention of working
HF will more than likely remain Techs.



will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next
12 months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I disagree with this assessment entirely. I believe the uptick in
"new" licenses as the result of this change will be statistically
insignificant. Total licenses have been decreasing steadily since
April 03. This latest change will not change that trend.

Those licenses - by and large - are the "Honeydo" Hams. These
people picked up the Technician license and communicated with the XYL or
OM to tell them to stop on the way home and get bred.... Opps! make that
bread.


Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease.

If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.


I do not believe there is
this huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join
the amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o
a code test.

I'm agreed with you there.

Oh, I'm sure someone will pop in with the inevitable "I have a friend
who (insert story here) and will only become an amateur once the code
test is removed because his interests lay on HF".

Then they have cheated themselves out of many years of enjoyment.
Their loss.


I'm sure there *ARE* some of those people. Are there a lot of them? I
seriously doubt it. So, I think the net result of this change will be
a measureable albeit minor bump in new licenses, if any noticable
difference at all. Almost all these folks will obtain a Tech license
and then immediately migrate into a General or Extra-class license.



I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't
have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

For a few months, you *may* see a higher-than-average rate of increase
in those license classes, but I wouldn't even give it 12 months -- I
would say within 3 to 6 months, any influx of "new blood" will be
minimal.
Within that same time period I do not think you will see a reversal of
the trend in a decreasing number of licensed amateurs. The overall
rate of decline may slow, but I do not expect this change to reverse
the negative slope.

That will not change until that inactive groupp of Technicians is
flushed from the rolls. They have not been active since cell phones
became ascendent. The Honeydo list is handled quite nicely by that
technology.


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.



My children are 17, 12, and 8. None of them express any type of
interest whatsoever in ham radio. Computers, cell phones,
text-messaging -- all staples of the modern world. 50 years ago, radio
was a common staple of every household, and naturally, a source of
education.

Ham radio was a common staple in the household 50 years ago?


Today, my kids are interested in C# programming, not how the radio
works.

Okay, my son is interested in programming also. His lack of
interest in radio has nothing to do with Cell phones, text messaging, or
the internet.

The cell phone killed the utility of radio.

Especially for those Honeydo Hams. But then again, they weren't
interested in radio anyhow - just what it could do for them. And Cell
phones indeed did what they needed, and did it better.


Talk around the world on a radio? Why do I need to spend $2000 on a
decent HF setup when I can turn on my $500 dell and do the same thing?

If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.

Now if ya really want to know what I think is the pressing problem,
and the biggest threat to the future of Ham radio, I'll tell you.

Tune across 75/80 meters in the evening. Plenty of good, code
tested (I'm assuming) amateurs who seem to have enough anger stored in
their gullet to increase the blood pressure of ten normal people. They
are mad at people like myself who are nickle Extras, they are mad at the
new "crop of CB'ers" who are coming along since the FCC caved into the
the forces of evil and eliminated Element 1. Hate, Hate, Hate. Frankly
they sound a lot more like CB'ers than they know. Sorry, but a tune
across 80 meters, and a lot of 20 meters puts the lie to how Morse
testing keeps up the neighborhood. The question to ask is would you want
your kids hanging out with these folk?

I firmly believe that the biggest threat to Amateur Radio at this
time is the grouchy, grumpy Hams that turn every conversation into
bitching about the great unwashed are destroying the hobby. Making sure
that the new guys and gals feel perfectly unwelcome. Especially
endearing is that many of them lack the social graces to avoid telling
the newbies to their face about their hatred for them. First class folk,
eh? It didn't bother me too much, but I have a mostly tough hide. But it
does scare away a lot of folk.

I had hoped that the new system was going to be one in which an Op
had to have some time in the saddle before upgrading, so as to get
valuable experience, or at least have the chance to get it. FWIW, I had
hoped that they retained the code test. But it isn't that way, so that
means that there will be a lot of new folks with HF access who will need
a lot of Elmering.

It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

What are you (collectivley speaking) going to do - help - or just
make it as unpleasant for the new folk as possible?

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -