How many old people are hams? How many young people? If there are not
enough young people to replace the old and dying hams amateur radio will
become extinct. There will always be a few new people, but if there is not
sufficient mass to sustain the numbers, it will die. Manufacturers will
either go out of business or build other things people want to buy.
Governments will give frequency spectrum up to the highest bidder and that
will not be amateur radio. Young people today have cell phones, computers,
the internet. They have absolutely no need for amateur radio to communicate
with friends around the world. To them it is as exciting as watching paint
dry. CW would put them to sleep. Look around you, how many young people are
hams? If not around 600,000 young hams, ham radio is history because in
around 10-20 years most existing hams will be at room temperature.