Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation
that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Let's spell it out:

One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur
license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired
amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following:

N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more
N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more

When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers"
will include comparisons to the effective date.


Sounds good to me. Shall I keep track of the people in the pool or would
you prefer to?

Be my guest, Dee. I'll take care of the ARS license numbers.

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although
cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable
on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will
also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will
either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual.

Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early
1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio,
others did not.

And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so.

There were probably other effects from changes in the test
requirements, etc.

What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the
map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so
easy to renew.

The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month.
Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too.

It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new
Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more
dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds.
Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question.

In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be
expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices
are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday".

73 de Jim, N2EY


Still the Novice drop is pretty steep. Either way, I think the drop will be
pretty much done by 2010 one way or another.

When I first read that, 2010 seemed a long long way off.

Now I realize it's only three years!

The "cell phone substitute"
hams are a little harder to get a handle on. In 1995, I knew a fair number
of people who had them BUT only one, not one for each family member. Of
course this could have varied in different parts of the country.

Yup. Main point it that it's not some hard-line date, but a gradual
effect.

Again, I
think that drop will be pretty much done by 2010 also. It could be earlier
though and that would be a good thing. I selected 2010 as a conservative
point in time in my opinion.

We shall see!

73 de Jim, N2EY