"John Smith I" wrote in message
...
Dee Flint wrote:
...
It is not "logic" when it depends on other, unpredictable factors to
cause the growth. If it it not predictable, it is not yet logic. Logic
depends on the known to project the future. I accept that these are all
just guesses. We are indulging in some idle speculation.


Logic guides the use of "probability and statistics" and this is what we
are dealing with here. Although that law contains unknowns and variables,
at least the general direction can be logically deduced, the pitfalls
cited, the games recorded, the evil personalities noted--it is as I
originally stated--I stand behind that 100%--logic suggest EXACTLY what I
stated.


While logic uses probability and statistics, you have presented exactly
none. You cannot assign a probability value to the other factors that you
name. Therefore they are not usable in logic.

You are NOT indulging in idle speculation. Like a chronic abuser or wife
beater, you hide in the shadows, you have denied your crimes, carefully
cloaking them in methods, maneuvers and actions which can "argued" to be
of a different nature--however, the bruises are noticeable! You belittle
NON-CW hams in the subtle, sneaky, perverse, under-handed and imbecilic
ways of human trash ...


You are wrong. There were several code-tested hams who predicted huge
growth in amateur radio due to eliminating the requirement. As I said
before, it behooves us to watch the numbers and see if it works. To ignore
it is to attempt to shape the future with insufficient data.

Act like an adult and treat those who deserve it as such. I know the
temptation is great to do otherwise--all these children running about can
distract one here in the r.r.a groups ...

It is in no way intended to "belittle" the non-CW licensees. One of the
arguments was that the CW test requirement kept a significant number of
people out of ham radio. Such statements were made by a wide variety of
people included some who were code tested. Others (including myself)
believe that there are not large numbers of people waiting in the wings
to enter ham radio (upgrade yes, enter no). Well the CW test requirement
is gone. It is perfectly logical to see if it has a significant effect
on amateur radio growth.


Without a doubt, the CW element HAS made it just difficult enough that
others choose other hobbies. ONLY a fool would claim the contrary--think
before you describe yourself as a fool ...


I am simply trying to get a handle on the actual numbers of people that
would have chosen other hobbies because of the code. And have everyone,
those who predict little or no affect and those who predict a lot of effect
to pay attention to what actually happens. If people have fun in a pool,
they will pay attention to the numbers.

I'd be ecstatic if we had a huge growth. However, I happen to think that is
unrealistic since most people I know outside of ham radio hardly know it
even exists let alone the requirements to participate.

Changes will happen ... it is only a matter of time and people finding out
the old "King of the Hill" bunch are gone, their bite is no more, those
are only the false teeth of the old invalids you see before you "watch
dogging" the gates of ham radio ...


Why are you so convinced that there are significant numbers of such people?
Very few people that I know fall into this category. As stated before, our
club members and others I know are very busy spreading the word on the
change regardless of whether they agree with it.

The intent of this is to get people to pay attention to the growth or
lack thereof for the very reason that "history is watching". The effect
of this change could be significant in shaping future regulatory changes.
It would be foolish for people and organizations not to watch for the
effect.


Yes. Many have given up on the imbecilic old hams guarding the gates of
amateur radio. We need to find them and invite them back--the remaining
chicken banders need informing ... there would be no HISTORY without
people, perhaps I should have said "sane people are watching."

Regards,
JS

Why do you seem convinced that there are significant numbers of oldsters
trying to "guard the gates"? It is certainly inconsistent with my
experience. All I've seen are a limited handful. They've had no success
since there are so many other good oldsters out there helping out.

Why are you being derogatory towards those who operate Citizen's Band? I
know many nice people who operate CB. My neighbor for one. So far he has
evinced no interest in ham radio even though we've demonstrated amateur
radio to him. He's quite happy with his circle of friends on CB and has no
interest in going further. Since he's shown no interest, we never got
around to discussing the requirements.

Dee, N8UZE