By no means am I attempting to trvialize your many comments but I think the
situation is not so complex.

Consider that the FCC only has limited power to control AR. The AR radio
spectrum will be there no matter what FCC policies are. As long is there are
people who are fascinated by the science, and to whatever degree they are
capable of manipulating it, transmissions will take place on what is now the
AR spectrum, even if the FCC were to "declare" an end to the service
tomorrow. A better question might be what is the FCC's role in AR in the
future? To what extent will those interested in radio allow the FCC to
regulate them?

There will always be people communicating on the resource, legal or illegal.
AR got its start without benefit of an FCC and it would continue to go on
without an FCC. (ex. CB, the geeks using pringles cans for 1.4 GHz antennae,
firmware patches to increase the power of there wireless routers etc.).

Getting young people interested is not a very relevant issue. The relevance
of radio to them is important. On the island of Cuba we still have hams
sitting at their keys in train stations communicating on 40m to South
Florida on CW with equipment that is obviously very crude. For them it is
fun...and relevant to them especially if you send them a few dollars. Young
people and old who have attended basic physics class in high school already
know that the HF/VHF etc. frequencies are there to use and they will be used
whenever communication becomes relevant to their personal lives. Hell, even
high school dropouts consigned to driving trucks for a living know all about
11m.

You cannot bring the relevancy to them; relevancy will find its own path,
perhaps by people who today have no desire to participate in the traditional
AR service.

For technology, I would not expect any miracles soon (despite all the former
promises of smart new blood being able to enter the service after CW is
gone). The physics of the natural resource is very limited. The bandwidth of
"HF" is much too narrow for anything other than CW and AM radio to be used
on a practical basis, no matter how good the propagation conditions. HF is a
narrow creek, not a raging river whose energy can be harnessed for much more
noble uses.

Finally, the FCC not only lacks effective control of the USA "amateur"
community; US citizens interested in using the resource will do so with or
without the permission of a government agency (as in Cuba and everywhere
else for that matter). There is a large installed base of amateur equipment
that will be used; there is a larger base than can easily be contructed
using readily available components if the desire is there because some
condition in society made it relevant to do that. The existence of this
equipment (and ready capability) lets allows others to assume that if they
get on the bands, they will always have someone to communicate with.

Neither the FCC nor the ARRL had much influence on the number of people
interested in the science today. They are neutral parties no matter what
such organizations would have you believe. They react to society's
conditions; they do not drive either the size of relevance of amateur radio
to its practitioners.

Without an installed base of equipment, or easy availablity of components
from which to make a radio, there would be no ham radio, legal or not. But
the base is there and it is irreversible. With this base there will always
be "ham" radio, legal or not, as there was ham radio before the FCC was
formed in the '30s and as there would be after.

Additionally, the FCC has no jurisdiction at all outside of our borders so
obviously it would take more than the FCC to end ham radio; it would take a
UN treaty, and even then it wouldn't work.

So, ham radio will always be with us in some form or other, and operating as
best it can within its natural limitations and manmade interference. Man is
a social animal and will always want and need to communicate.

The FCC trying to regulate a natural resource is similar to the Fedreal
reserve attempting to regulate the economy. It has some effect, not always
as intended but with or without a federal reserve, there will always be an
exconomy, for better or for worse. And I would not assume "worse" without
the Fed..

Radio will always be interesting to some and that fact alone will always
keep it alive. I think you flatter the service by assuming that the FCC or
licensed radio amateurs have so much control over a sprectral resource that
in the end cannot be regulated anymore than gravity or relativity.



"Dan" wrote in message
...
Thesis ONE