On Jan 31, 11:03 pm, "Carl R. Stevenson" wrote:
Information from within ARRL indicates that last year the ARRL VECs, whose
teams handle over 70% ov al VE sessions, per their claim (which I am not
confirming nor disputing), performed over 5,000 VE sessions (with each
session handling multiple applicants/testees).

According to the report, the average session was 5-10 applicants/testees ...
(25-50k testees)

"Reservations" have now jumped to 50-75/session!!!

It appears that no-code WILL result in significant growth. (as I predicted)

Carl 'ole bean you're making some some very dicey assumptions and
extrapolations here. What evidence do you have which indicates that
this latest lurch will result in anything beyond just another bubble
of upgrades a la 1991 and 2000?

The simple fact of the matter is that we're into a very mature
avocation based on an ancient basic technology which lost it's sex
appeal in the general population years ago. I agree with others in
this thread, we'll be lucky to regain the 18,000 the hobby has already
lost since the head count peaked.

I do hope you're prepared to eat some crow if your predictions don't
come true.

While some who want to keep our bands "to themselves" (at least until
they're reallocated for lack of/diminishing use)

As you well know the HF ham bands are not under any threats, they're
not going anywhere for a very long time.

It'll be interesting to see if the upgraders actually generate a
noticeable increase in HF band activity levels. Techs have been able
to become licensed without a code test for 15 years, they spend say
spend $175 for a 2M FM rig and a few bucks for a little easy-up 2M
antenna and they're on the air. Which is good and now they can upgrade
to nocode Generals and Extras. And oops, they run into the much higher
costs of HF equipment and all the hassles related to putting up HF
antennas.

If they weren't previously interested enough in ham radio to do the
work required to pass the 5WPM code test will they now be interested
enough in ham radio to spend the bigger bucks and get HF antennas up
in the new regime?

will bemoan this, I am
elated!

From what I've seen, the ARRL BoD is "Getting It" about the need to welcome
new hams and strongly discourage any berating/insulting/bad treatment of
them just because they didn't have to take a Morse test. BRAVO!

When was the last time anybody paid any attention to the ARRL's
unending stream of admonitions about playing nice? 1928?

I hope that ALL hams will "get with the program" and act like decent human
beings/Elmers towards the impending, apparently significant influx of
newcomers.

Treat them right and they will assimilate - treat the crappy and you'll
regret it in the long run.

This whole topic area is worn out overblown nonsense. There are
600,000 licensed hams in the U.S. with maybe 150,000-200,000 actually
active. Of this group there are some misfits, maladroits and nutcases
whose influence on the welfare of the hobby has been hugely overrated.
This BS is nothing more than an excuse, a copout, a handy rationale of
covenience which blames the lack of growth of the hobby on these anti-
social types.

I don't believe for one minute that their behavior has any really
measurable impact on the growth - or lack of growth of the total head
count. Bits and pieces of anti-social behavior are everywhere we go,
out on the streets, at meetings, in this NG, on the job and yes on the
ham bands too. That's life and we deal with it in other sectors
without whining about it like too many do when ham radio is involved.
Adapt or find another hobby because thee, the ARRL and I are not
going to "fix" them.

As far as elmering and "assimilation" of newbies is concerned one of
the first points I'd make to a newbie is to simply spin the big knob
in the panel and go somewhere else when they run into a jerk. How
difficult is that?? And by the way Carl the volume of misbehavior in
the hobby today is no worse than it was a half century ago. Back when
ham radio grew every year . . .


73,
Carl - wk3c

w3rv