"Dee Flint" wrote:

Although our approach will of necessity have to be different, we still
must face the equivalent of market saturation. Not everyone is going to
be interested in amateur radio no matter what we do and on top of that our
general population growth is very slow. These issues must be considered
when devising a strategy.

This is why I believe the way to "save" ham radio is "quality over
quantity".

You cannot "save" ham radio by throwing more bodies at it. You can only save
ham radio by making it such an essential service that the FCC dare not
eliminate it.


Look at how many people believed and still believe that Morse code kept
people out. They think there is a huge number of people just waiting in
the wings chomping at the bit to become hams without having to take a code
test. I'll certainly be happy and excited if that happens but let's say
it doesn't (and I think it won't).

You and I both. Did you post your prediction for the "pool" (as to where ARS
licensing numbers will be in another year? I said -1 to 0% change.

While I'm sure there are *some* people who will get licensed now there is no
code test, I do not think it will result in any meaningful numbers added to
the service. I suspect what you will see are a rash of upgrades as Techs
obtain HF privs. I wouldn't be surprised if, for the first time in many
years, we actually saw a *decrease* in the number of licensed Techs (which,
at the moment, is the only growing license class sans the Extra class)


What then will people propose?

Why... its those NASTY, pesky THEORY examinations that are holding people
away, naturally. After all, if all you want to do is talk to your buddy 2
streets over on the local repeater, why do you need to know stupid things
like radio wave propagation and antenna theory. All I do is call HRO, and my
antenna theory arrives pre-manufacturered in a box. Maybe rather than having
tests on RLC circuits we can have tests on the proper way to tighten hose
clamps.


We've probably got another several years until the "cell phone substitute"
hams are, for the most part, gone. That's several years still of decline.
With the relatively low cost of cell phones these days, we will get no
more recruits from this approach although we have kept a few that came in
this way.

I think you'll bottom out in the mid 300k's and stay there.... Or, the rate
of decline will fall off rapidly but still continue, slowly, as the ARS
peters out into non-existance by the mid 2020's.


The decline in CB enthusiasts is also reducing another potential source of
recruits.

"Radio" simply isn't 'sexy' these days, with the internet, etc. Radio-based
"hobbies" are, for the most part, D-E-A-D.

We need another "Smokey and the Bandit" movie to glamourize CB/Ham radio
again.


Perhaps they will realize that it is a recruitment and marketing issue
rather than requirements.

Perhaps the ARRL should work with Yaesu, Kenwood, Cushcraft, etc. to arrange
for interested college clubs around the country to get free gear to set up a
station. Who knows.

73
kh6hz