From: on 15 Feb 2007 15:09:25 -0800

wrote:
On Feb 14, 11:36?pm, Dave Heil wrote:


According to www.AH0A.org, JARL membership is now well under
100,000. What other amateur radio organization even comes close
to 100,000 members?

I hedged my bet, thinking of JARL.

Their membership has been cut almost in half in the past ten years. It
follows closely the numerical decline of Japanese amateur radio in
general.

Tsk, tsk, NOT 100% correct according to www.ah0a.org.

Japanese amateur radio licenses were tabled there yearly,
indicating a CONSTANT annual growth of 10.19% in 1978
(total licenses 686,301) dropping slowly to 0.724%
annual growth in 2006 (total licenses 3,192,744).

In only 28 years that tabulations shows an increase of
2,506,443. If that were averaged over 28 years it
represents a growth of about 89,516 licensees per year.
If that average growth is divided by 365 it shows an
increase of about 245 new licenses per day.

That cannot possibly be taken as a "general decline" in
Japanese amateur radio.


I remember how, ten years or so ago, the large numbers of Japanese
amateurs was touted as proof of the need for a nocodetest license with
HF privileges. Japan was held up as the poster country for code test
reduction/elimination.

"Touted?" Is this a race track? :-)

Let's see...www.hamdata.com shows US numbers on 15 Feb 07
as 721,956 total licenses. Since 10,350 of those are
club calls, the total of Individual licensees would be
711,606. Compare that to over 3 million Japanese
licensees for last year, plus a continuing GROWTH.

Hamdata.com numbers indicate the last 12 months as
having and increase of NEW licensees equal to 22,350.
However, those same 12 months show Expirations (or,
in their polite euphemism, 'no longer licensed') of
28,781. That works out to about 61 NEW licensees
per day but with about 78 per day Expirations. The
NEGATIVE growth is then about 17 per day from a
negative delta of 6,431 per year. US licensee totals
peaked 3 1/2 years ago, has been on a steady decline
since.


Judging by the number of stations, the USA has regained the lead as
the country with the most licensed amateurs.

You are just speculating and have NO proof either way.

While Japanese operator
license numbers are higher, it should be remembered that those
licenses never expire.

Neither does the imagination of morsemen expire in
their illogical conclusions.


The number of Japanese operator licenses shown on the AH0A website is
really an indication of how many amateurs have been licensed in that
country since 1952, not how many are currently licensed.

Strange, but I was just at www.ah0a.org and that tabulation
begins at 1959, NOT 1952! Tsk, tsk, that is NOT
"100% accuracy!"

So, are you saying that 2,506,443 Japanese radio amateurs
have died and their totals remain at only 686,301 NOW?
That seems to be your IMPLICATION.

Fact: World War II (in the Pacific) ended in 1945 and
the Japanese surrendered. Really. It was in all the
papers. Try to get out more. We don't need to kill off
any Japanese now.

LA