wrote:

The total number of US hams had been slowly declining for a couple of
years before the rules change. Since the rules change, the decline has
stopped and we have a growth rate of about 1/3 of one percent per
year.

Thru the end of February, we saw a decline of 32,383 hams (687,860, 04/03 to
655,477 02/07) in 3.83 years. That's a decline of 8455 hams/year on average,
or 704/mo for the past 46 months. During that time period, we also saw a few
'statistical outliers' where the number of licensed hams temporarily
increased for 1 or more months (for example, Nov 03, Aug 04, Sept 05) but
then the downward trend continued. A final March tally of 1/3rd of 1% would
be consistant with prior blips.

687,860
Of course that's based on one month of data. Whether the trend will
continue is unknown. Extrapolating one month's results may not be
valid at all.

There's an old saying I teach my statistics students: One observation does
not equal a trend. However, I think my 0-1% decline prediction will hold
true in the end.


When the "price" of something declines, there
is usually a surge of "sales", which may or may not be sustained.

Like I've always said, the numbers game is a losing proposition for amateur
radio. It is in our interest to focus on quality over quantity.


Do you think he'll be homebrewing any radios for his amateur station?
Writing any technical articles for amateur radio publications or
websites?
Using any new modes or methods?

I've been listening regularly for "CQ de AF6AY" on 20m CW to no avail


And hey, Mike - *you* are part of that
NoCodeTest agenda, too! I read your
1998 Comments.

No, I got kicked out when Carl Stevenson had my No-Code International
membership revolked because he didn't like me and my postings to RRAP. Now
I'm a No-Code Gypsy, wandering around without a home.

73
kh6hz