"Owen Duffy" wrote in message
...
I have been plotting the percentage of days in a calendar month that were
spotless during this transition.

Certainly, March 2009 isn't encouraging.

The graphs are at http://www.vk1od.net/propagation/solar/spotless.htm .


Very interesting data, Owen. This is a new way to look at the transition but
to my eye a downward trend hasn't emerged yet and that certainly is bad news
for 2009.

Another idea I had recently, but haven't found any records of this method of
tracking solar cycles anywhere on the net... perhaps you might know. This
idea was prompted by the observation that so far in 2009, if I'm not
mistaken, the number of Cycle 23 sunspots outnumbers the Cycle 24 sunspots,
so the situation is even more dire when this is considered. So the questions
in my mind a

1/ Don't the Cycle 23 spots have to vanish completely before we can even
begin to say that we have entered the new cycle?

2/ If not, then how far into the new cycle are old spots allowed to occur
without casting doubt on the fact that the new cycle has begun yet?

I looked all over for a plot of old spots superimposed on a plot of new
spots, so that I could get an idea of how long the overlap period typically
is. But this is the data that I couldn't find anywhere. Any ideas?

I don't think we're past minimum yet. We might be in it right now, and
possibly for several more months. I say this despite the fact that there
have already been a number of Cycle 24 spots. This minimum is looking like a
double-minimum, ironically the inverse of the Cycle 23 double-maximum.

Al W6LX