On Mar 14, 4:27�pm, Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote:
On Mar 10, 9:32?pm, (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article ,
* * * * "Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
groups.com...
[snip]
Total all classes - increase of 89
---
73 de Jim, N2EY
Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% *growth in one year.

Which fits right into my prediction of 0% to 1% growth!

And I'll take 0.35% growth over a decline.

However, it is foolish to look at short-term results and
assume they will continue. Day-to-day variations can be quite
large.

For example, the most recent numbers I have at hand are
for March 12, 2007. Total current FCC-issued licenses
on that date (as of 7 PM March 13) were 654,331. That's
349 less than the 654,680 on Feb 22. Of course tomorrow's
numbers may be much higher.

But what is completely unknown at this point is whether the growth
will continue. After the 2000 restructuring, the license numbers
climbed for about three years - and then began to decline, until now
they are well below what they were before the restructuring of 2000.

Here are some really rough calculations for my area:

Presently licensed in the State College area:

231 - I'll have to subtract 3 club licenses

229 local State College Hams

In the past 6 months, we've had around 2 hams per month added by club
testing. Note that this includes testing under the old system.

OK so far.

The local University also has testing as part of one of the EE classes.
I don't have the exact numbers, or even close. They test by semester.

* * * * Given that about 12 hams have been added to the rosters by us in the
last 6 months there is at least a 1 percent growth rate - disregarding
the college group. Taking a rough estimate, they must be doing at least
as well, as the classes continue. My guess is that the final growth in
this area is around 2 percent. That is as just about at the top of the
growth that I would like to see.

That's all good stuff - for the State College area.

But it may or may not be applicable to other areas. We really don't
know for sure.

* * * * We often speak of the effects that recent changes will have on the
number of new Hams coming into the fold.

* * * * I think this is a bit of a red herring attribute.

* * * * I think that growth in the service is much more dependent on what we do
to get people into it.

I agree 100%.

However, in recent decades, one of the main reasons given for
changing the license test requirements has been to stimulate
growth. Time and again, those pushing for the changes have
said they were absolutely necessary in order for the number
of US hams to grow in the future. So it's certainly worth watching
to see whether they were right or wrong.

We've been on a recruitment effort that allows the new guys and gals to
not feel inadequate. We're teaching real basics, like how to solder, how
to read color codes on resistors. That kind of stuff. Oh yeah, and how
to operate that HF rig. I'm our club station manager, and we're turning
one corner of the building into a classroom for the new folks. And we're
being very careful to not sound like we know everything. (I don't have
to work too hard at that) ;^)

This is all good stuff.Excellent work, Mike!

73 de Jim, N2EY