On Apr 10, 2:00�pm, Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote:
On Apr 9, 8:22 pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

Changes in requirements don't have any effect
when the potential recruits have no idea that the hobby even exists.

I don't believe that there is any significant percentage of the
general population of the USA who has never heard of ham radio.

In my experience, non-hams' knowledge of the
existence of amateur radio is all over the map, from
"never heard of it" to "what do you want to know?"

Most people may have heard of it, but that doesn't mean
they really understand it. For example, I have met people
who thought amateur radio disappeared years ago. Others
think that it requires an elaborate station and the knowledge
of an EE just to get started. Etc.

With significantly less than 1% of US residents holding
amateur radio licenses, it's not unreasonable that lots
of people today would not have heard of amateur radio.

I don't believe the "changes in requirements" were intended to grow
ham radio.

"Growth" has consistently been one of the main reasons
given for changing the license requirements, by those
who wanted them changed.

I don't even care if ham radio grows or doesn't grow. *There are
millions of hams on planet Earth, more than enough to fill my logs on
any mode I choose through at least the next four sunspot cycles.

I think growth is a good thing, as long as it does not come
at the price of quality.

I believe that Hans' percentage numbers are indeed relevant.

In a dynamic area such as ARS license numbers, there is a need to look
beyond raw numbers and to determine exactly why the numbers that you are
comparing look as they do.

Agreed.

* * * * Looking at the numbers in one way, we may wonder at an apparent
drop-off. A lot of technicians went way. We need to speculate on why. It
would be a basic assumption that they decided that Ham radio was not for
them.

That assumption is incomplete, however.

Some may have decided ham radio was not for them.
Others may have had to put aside ham radio for a time,
because of other responsibilities.

A considerable number may have either died or become
incapacitated enough that amateur radio is no longer an
option for them.

Why? Some have speculated that the majority of that drop-off was a
change in communication habits, ie. Hams who got their licenses for
purposes of "calling home" to check in, or get a grocery list, or the
like. Some call that flavor of Ham a "honeydo" Ham. These people are
served by Cell phones now.

I know many hams who got licenses in the late 1970s, 1980s and 1990s
for just that reason. Some of them
became interested in other facets of amateur radio, some
did not. Some replaced amateur radio with a cell phone,
some did not.

I don't know if those who replaced amateur radio with a
cell phone make up a majority of those who left, or not.

But I do know this: We're not getting very many new
"honeydew" hams anymore. Not anywhere near what
we were getting before 1995 or so.

Others have speculated that the dropoff was due to
poor treatment of new Hams.

*I don't doubt that there may be examples of the second group, *I would
surmise that there could be a little bit of both reasons, but am
inclined to think it might be a 90/10 in favor of *the former.

If not even more so.

* * * * I have personally seen a surge of new Hams in our area. We've been
having a 2 percent growth in our area since *before* the testing change,
and assuming that tonights testing is successful, 2 new generals and a
Technician will be added to the ranks this evening. Those new guys don't
know a thing about what the Honeydo hams were doing ten years ago, and
don't particularly care either. They have become interested in Ham
radio, and we've encouraged them every step of the way. We've been
selling the sizzle.

Exactly! But by the same token, to get those 3 hams, you probably had
to sell the sizzle to quite a large number of
people.


*One minor disagreement with Hans, though. I don't care if we get some
kind of huge growth, in fact, that would be lots of problems to deal
with. We need a steady influx of new people to keep the hobby
interesting, and to replace the fact that everyone is terminated to
ground eventually. 1 percent growth would be desirable in that context,
I think.

I think that if Amateur Radio is presented in a clear and positive
manner, the growth will take care of itself.

73 de Jim, N2EY