On Apr 25, 9:35�am, Michael Coslo wrote:
AF6AY wrote:
On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
"Michael Coslo" wrote:

In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I t
hink
how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook.
What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products?

Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizea
ble
percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade
to the
'commercial' version.

Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They
will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating
SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic
drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist.
The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone.
Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one
upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal
for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any
circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out
for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking
about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual
circuits and applications.

On my computers, I use the OpenOffice Suite (mostly WP an
d their
spreadsheet)

I use Digipan and a whole host of other Ham radio softwar
e.

Let's not forget N1MM contest logger.

A number of people produce software for the PAQSO party.

Reg Edwards' (G4FGQ) whole selection of design software

G4FON's Morse Code learning software, to name just one of many

Older versions of Spectrogram, an audio spectrum analyzer software
with many uses in the ham shack.

Several free online Amateur Radio practice test websites

All these things share one thing in common. They
are free for the download.

Even programs such as EZNEC, while charging for the full
version, have
a perfectly functional demo version with the biggest limitation being
the number of "elements" you can use in it.

If that isn't enough, then 4NEC2 is free.

Altruism does indeed exist.

Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years
now.

Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed)
are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on
www.hamdata.com, right on the home page.

The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we ca
n discuss the
reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to
that earlier level at some point.

One factor I have not seem mentioned recently is the effect of rules
changes other than license test requirements on the number of hams.

For example, in the USA, the license term was doubled from 5 to 10
years back in 1984, and the 'grace period' doubled from one to two
years. One effect of these changes was that there were no expirations
at all from 1989 to 1994. Another was that the number of totally-
inactive-and-not-coming-back hams still shown on the database was
increased.

Another rules change that effects expirations is the vanity callsign
program. Unlike address changes, upgrades, etc., getting a vanity call
also generates a renewal. This may profoundly affect the distribution
of license expiration dates.

With the license term at ten years and the grace period at two years,
it can take a pretty long time for the actual loss of amateurs to show
up in the totals.

It is also important to know the details of what is included in the
numbers being cited. The raw numbers of licenses listed by
hamdata.com, for example, include both current licenses and those in
the grace period, while other sources do not include grace period
licensees.

Perhaps the old Tech license was a bit of a dead end?

Perhaps. However, if so, it should be noted that only a small
percentage of them have upgraded in the past 60 days.

There is also a fairly large variation in the license totals over
fairly short periods of time. For example, the total number of
current FCC-issued amateur licenses held by individuals was:

654,680 on Feb 22, 2007 (just before rules changed)
654,265 on Mar 5, 2007
654,160 on Mar 13, 2007
654,816 on Mar 14, 2007
655,025 on Mar 16, 2007
654,094 on Mar 19, 2007
655,136 on Apr 6, 2007
655,233 on Apr 12, 2007
654,649 on Apr 16, 2007
654,540 on Apr 24, 2007

Depending on which dates are compared, all sorts of short-term trends
could appear to be happening. For example, from March 13 to April 12
the total grew by 1073 - more than 3 per day! But from April 12 to
April 24, they declined by 693 - more than 5 per day. Of course on a
longer baseline things will even out; the point is that there are
large short-term variations.

All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham
radio
is lessening.

The drop of Ham Radio, 73 magazines happened in between
1990 and about 2003 due to lack of advertising space sales,
particularly among the "Big3" (Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood). Folks
tend to ignore those same Big3 are also engaged in making
radios for businesses and governments. They probably make
more money in that market than in the amateur radio field.

However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be
new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain
models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna
makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller
businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd
say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the
opposite.

Agreed. Certainly it is in my area. There are some who wo
uld dispute
the success we are having in our area (we are running at a 2+ percent
increase after factoring in attrition for well over a year now) as a
fluke. I might respectfully suggest a new approach. 8^)

"If it happens, it must be possible"

There might even be a trend towards more newcomers
entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown
in numbers onwww.hamdata.com.

The new hams in our area are good people, and are becomin
g active and
well mannered hams.

IMHO, that's more important than how many.

Looking back over the past decade or so, I see the following trends:

- The number of US hams grew in the early 1990s but began a slow
decline in the late 1990s.
- The number of US hams grew in the early 2000s (2000-2003, after the
rules changes that went into effect in April 2000) but the growth was
not sustained and began a slow decline in the mid-2003
- The recent changes (Feb 2007) appear to have stopped the decline in
the short term.
- Both the 2000 and 2007 rules changes had the effect of a far greater
number of existing hams upgrading than new hams joining.

73 de Jim, N2EY