wrote on Sat, 5 May 2007 08:20:29 EDT

On May 4, 7:22?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
wrote:

Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.

The decline in licensing continues unabated.

Well, maybe. But according to the numbers I've seen and posted in
recent months, the number of current, unexpired FCC-issued amateur
licenses held by individuals seems to have leveled off at around
655,000.

One of the reasons I used the www.hamdata.com figures is that there
is no differentiation between "active" and "inactive" in quoting the
New (never before licensed) versus the Expired (very definitely out of
their grace period). That dynamic shows - directly - the
'replacement'
of attrited licensees by newcomers.

... However, it should be
noted that the total number can vary up and down a couple of hundred
in just a few days.

Examining totals over a 30-day or longer period has an averaging
effect of minimizing the statistical anamolies occurring over just a
few days. "Smoothing the curve," so to speak.

Where are the "hoards of technically savvy" people in the wings "just
waiting for the code requirement to disappear"?

There are three possibilities:

1) They don't know the rules changed back in February.

That seems unlikely considering the FCC announced their decision
on 15 December 2006 and that news was then carried by the ARRL
in all their periodicals, in CQ magazine, in Popular Communications,
on www.qrz.com, on www.eham.net, on newsgroups oriented towards
amateur radio (and including SWL and CB enthusiasts), in major
electronics trade periodicals (EDN and Electronic Design, even
Microwaves & RF, the IEEE Spectrum membership magazine), even
in a few large newspapers. While the 'waiting period' was only
slightly longer than two months before legal activation, there had
been an NPRM and Comment period on it begun nearly a year and
a half prior in Docket 05-235 announced 19 July 2005. That NPRM
and Comments were also publicized by the major amateur radio
news providers in print and on the Internet. Anyone who is at all
concerned or interested in or about amateur radio in the USA is
bound to have found out about it ahead of time.

2) They're busy studying for the written test, finding a VE session,
etc.

While the more remote areas of the USA would still be difficult to
access a VEC examination location, those would also represent the
least populous areas. VEC exams exist in the urban centers and
are publicized by the dozen-plus VECs to those interested. In the
Greater Los Angeles area (population roughly 8 million) about half
of the exams scheduled were "walk-in," no advance notice
necessary. In close observation of all the Question Pools issued
by the NCVEC, there were very few questions directly concerning
morse code use that would be affected by FCC 06-178 so there
would be minimal studying any changes wrought by that R&O.

3) They don't exist.

Or, more likely, the phrase did not exist in the alleged wide use
claimed by some. :-)

A more likely possibility is that there are 'hoards' [sic] of
technically-
savvy people who simply gave up on the old requirements of ham
radio testing and went on to other, newer technology-related hobbies
that were more interesting to them. They just were not interested
in spending their own time on learning a skill they would never use
after passing an amateur radio examination.

73, Len AF6AY