wrote on Sat, 5 May 2007 08:20:29 EDT:

On May 4, 7:22?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:

And just what are "big numbers", anyway?

Back in the late 1940s, all through the 1950s and into the early
1960s, the number of US hams grew from about 60,000 just after VJ-Day
to about 250,000 in 1964, even though all hams back then had to pass
Morse Code exams and "secret" written tests.

Yes, there was certainly a growth, but a number of factors were not
mentioned. Firstly, all amateur radio operation was forbidden during
the duration of World War II. Secondly, the wide use of radio for
communications by the military during that war was certainly one of
exposure to many military members that might have been mildly
interested in radio in general at the time. Third, the large numbers
of
"war surplus" radio equipment suitable for HF operation was a boon
for all interested at the time to become radio active at low cost.
I've
witnessed all of that first-hand.

Yet ham radio was far less popular back then than it is today, because
the ratio of hams to total US population was much lower then than
today.

I have to disagree with that for several reasons. Independent amateur
radio publications CQ and 73 began a many-decades publishing
existance in that period. Several other radio-interest publications
began and some pre-WWII publishers restarted in the late 1940s.
Publishing of electronics subjects in all areas began in earnest
during
the late 1940s and into the 1950s and those have increased up to
today.

Electronics in many applications flourished after WWII, even before
the invention of the transistor and first appearance of low-priced
production devices almost a decade later. With that increase in
general electronics production, not to mention the avalanche of
TV receivers being made, came an increase in the availability of
electronic components through distributors and dealers, most being
suitable for "radio" applications. Thousands of small start-up
businesses and proto-corporations involved in electronics began
during that period; few were directly involved with amateur radio per
se since all of the electronics industry was undergoing a rapid
expansion...something that hasn't stopped.

The immediate post-WWII period saw little change in amateur radio
technology or operation, the vast majority concerned with HF bands
as they were then, that mostly using radiotelegraphy mode. Voice
on HF ham bands required double-sideband AM techniques which
didn't begin to be replaced by new-fangled SSB until the late 1950s.
Data (actually RTTY then) was rare and confined to those who could
get surplus teleprinter terminals. Only a few knowledgeable amateur
experimenters were engaged in radio above 30 MHz, a part of the
spectrum considered almost "other-worldly" by so many HF hams
and inhabited only by TV, FM, and radars. :-) The first significant
change in worldwide amateur radio came about (in my observation)
at WARC-79 and the creation of new HF bands for amateurs. In the
USA there was little advancement in amateur radio regulations to
keep pace with the growing influence of electronics in all consumer
applications and radio for other purposes than broadcast or ham use.

CB on the former 11m ham band slice of HF had a notable growth
among U.S. radio producers after 1958. All of the bigger radio
makers were involved plus several start-up companies. Less than
a decade later came the off-shore produced CB sets at lower prices
and the explosion in CB set use on highways began. While there
are no easily-obtainable statistics now, estimates of CB set use
today outnumbers amateur radio licensees by at least 7:1. With
the off-shore production of CB transceivers came the off-shore
produced amateur radios having competitive quality and cost.

The 1970s and early 1980s were another period of fast growth, even
though the license test requirements had been considerably increased
by the "incentive licensing" changes of 1968 and 1969.

Not having taken any "incentive licensing era" tests for amateur
radio, I can't comment on "requirements being considerably
increased." I do note that the time period was one in which the
[Japanese] "Big3" of amateur radio designers-producers got started
and firmly established their position in the ham market.
Hallicrafters
of Chicago dissolved their business, National Radio went to all-
government contract work and morphed into other things, Collins
Radio dropped out of the amateur market though it is still heavy
into commercial and military radios as a division of Rockwell Intl.
Heath Company of Benton Harbor, MI, quit most of its fabled kit
business and changed owners. Yaesu, Kenwood, Icom rule in the
HF-VHF-UHF ham radios off the shelf today. All three plus the
smaller off-shore makers offer quality in production and design at
competitive prices. I would think that such would have a direct
bearing on whether any newcomers would be attracted to amateur
radio of today or of the 1980s and 1990s.

However, with such "fast growth" ('fast' being subjective) came the
increased demand to eliminate the code test for amateur radio
license exams. Several countries had established "T-hams" who
did not test for morse code skill but were restricted to VHF and up.
The USA lagged behind those other countries in finally establishing
the Technician class (no-code-test) license in 1991. The rest of the
radio world was giving up using any morse code modes...if it had
ever established it from a radio service's beginning.

In 1970 there was little competition for free time from the Internet
(made public 1991), Bulletin Board Systems (as yet a decade
away), personal computers (four years away for a beginning, a
decade away for the "IBM PC"), less than half of all homes had
color TV and most had screens smaller than 23 inches, nothing
like the 100 channels for model radio control at 72-74 MHz, few
amateur radios on the market for VHF and higher, cellular
telephone service just starting (at lower frequencies than L-band),
no standardization on Compact Disc recordings (magnetic
recordings had begun to compete with vinyl discs), no standard
magnetic tape recording system for television recordings, "Pong"
was just taking hold as a novelty electronic game in restaurants
and lounges (all-digital, first models did not use a
microprocessor), TTL digital devices were becoming a market-
demand leader for digital electronics, some specialty analog
ICs were new and available although most would be out of
production in three decades, "auto electronics" consisted of
an in-dash AM/FM radio and an ignition system little changed
from 1940 designs. Personal radio was limited to 11m CB that
was undergoing an explosive growth from inexpensive foreign
production and becoming popular with truckers. Electronic
music augmentation was just beginning and the first music
synthesizers had appeared.

Three decades later there is considerable competition for free
time and personal entertainment. One out of three Americans
has a cell phone subscription. One out of five American house-
holds has some form of Internet access. CDs have replaced
all previous formats of music recording and DVDs have replaced
former means television recordings. Retail dealers and renters
of both have been created. We are in the transition phase of
conversion to HDTV which has already shown a superior video
and audio service. Most U.S. households have multi-channel
television-music service by cable or satellite relay. We've had
direct-dial telephone service for two decades to any other
same-service telephone in the world. The Internet is firmly
established as part of U.S. social fabric and is found on all
continents of the world. We have license-free FRS HTs over
the counter as pairs for under $100. 11m CB is still with us
and still used on highways by the millions. Remote control of
models by radio in the 100 channels of license-free bands at
72 and 74 MHz is the standard for modelers, wireless local area
network equipment is off-the-shelf for businesses and
residences. Cell phone service is available on all major U.S.
highways, even in remote areas (excluding parts of Alaska).
We have cordless telephones that operate at 5.6 MHz, using
secure digital modulation as well as older 2.4 MHz units with
the same features, both a practical impossibility in 1970.

I've not included such things as voice-over-Internet protocol,
the ability of modern PCs to typeset a printed page as good as
any compositor plus include imagery as part of a finished
document. I've not included the (literally) thousands of different
games available for PCs. I've not even mentioned that the
average under-$1500 over-the-counter PC suite of today having
more processing power than any IBM-360 or RCA Spectra 70
mainframe computer of 1970. I've not mentioned that digital
electronics and photosensing have changed personal
photography from film to electronic form, capable of being
"developed" at any PC or added-function stand-alone printer.
I've not included the (license-free) radios that open car doors,
open garage doors, sound various music when wireless door
bells are pushed, activate electrical devices remotely, carry
security TV camera signals, or identify products by RF, all
using relatively-secure digital codings.

The preceding has been just a summary of the kinds of
things which can compete for free time for all Americans,
whether they are licensed in the amateur radio service or not.
It is that kind of competition that future amateur radio in the
USA has to work amongst to attract newcomers. Amateur
radio must attract newcomers or it won't survive as a radio
service. Amateur radio must change with the times or just
disappear as human attrition takes its toll on those who
refuse to adapt.

73, Len AF6AY