On May 6, 11:44�pm, RDWeaver wrote:
On May 7, 2:08 am, wrote:

On May 6, 8:07?pm, "George" wrote:

I'm totally surprised. I was under the impression that ham radio h
ad
declined in popularity over the decades!

The numbers say otherwise. And they have for many years.

1990: US population 249 million US hams 550,000, 1 ham per 453
Americans
2000: US population 281 million, US hams 683,000, 1 ham per 411
Americans
May 5 2007: US population (estimated) 301,773,107 US hams 655,219, 1
ham per 460 Americans

But something apparently has gone horribly wrong. Your numbers
indicate that in the past 7 years we have lost all the gains of the
90's and are apparently sliding backwards into the 1980's hams-per-
Americans ratios.

??

Not just 'my' numbers but any reliable numbers you look at.

What has happened in the past 7 years is this:

From 2000 to 2003, the number of US hams rose, but since 2003 the
numbers have been slowly declining, as expirations exceeded new
licenses.The recent rules changes seem to have stopped the decline in
numbers but they are only a few months old.

We can speculate on what's going on, but it's only speculation. So
here are some speculations:

1) In 1984 the FCC doubled the license term from 5 to 10 years. Which
meant that from 1989 to 1994 there were no US amateur license
expirations at all. That period is long gone now.

2) There are three basic reasons to become a ham: First, to legally
operate 2-way radios as an end in itself, second, to do technical
things with 2-way radios that aren't allowed in other radio services,
and third, to use low-cost electronic communication.

The first two reasons are pretty much unchanged. But the third has
changed radically in the past 10-20 years or so. Email, the internet,
cell phones and many other options have made amateur radio just one of
many ways that people can use low-cost electronic communication.

For example, back in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, we experienced a
steady stream of new hams who wanted to use the various repeater/
autopatch systems in this area for personal noncommercial
communications, particularly while mobile. Whole families would show
up at classes and VE sessions, and the repeaters were busy with their
activities. The term 'honeydo hams' entered the jargon. Some of them
became interested in other facets of amateur radio, some did not.
Nothing wrong with that, either way.

Then came inexpensive cell phones. They went from being a luxury to a
near-necessity in a decade or so. Inexpensive, long distance mobile
communications went from something unusual and exotic to ubiquitous -
and we lost that source of new hams. Very few people get amateur radio
licenses today in order to coordinate who is picking up the dry
cleaning on the way home and who has soccer practice carpool. In the
1980s it was common.

3) The percentage of residences with antenna restrictions keeps
rising. In many areas you have to look really hard to find an
affordable newer home where you can put up something as innocuous as a
G5RV or a vertical.

4) The nature of free time has changed for many Americans. It's not
that people don't have free time, it's that their free time is less
predictable and comes in odd chunks. Many American families are
juggling two careers, child and elder care, and the expectation of
being available most of the time. Activities that requires solid
pieces of time, like amateur radio, aren't going to be as popular in
such an environment.

There are lots more, but I'm out of time!

73 de Jim, N2EY