On Jun 28, 8:34?pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
So far an "effective change" of 0% but we'll see what the rest of the year
brings.

We're only 1/3 of the way through the first year, though. And the
numbers have taken ups and downs all over the place.

A couple of things to remember when looking at these numbers:

- Any time a rules change is being considered, or is pending, there
will probably be an effect on licensing behavior. Just like the
announcement of an upcoming sale at a store. If the pending change
makes it easier to get a license, people who were considering getting
that license may simply wait until the change occurs. I suspect that
more than a few people who were planning to get amateur licenses, or
to upgrade, before February 23, 2007 decided to wait until after the
rules change.

- News like the rules change travels slowly, and its effects even
slower.

- While the rules changes have not resulted in steady new growth, it
appears to me that the decline has at least slowed, and probably
stopped.

My prediction, IIRC, was that in the first year we would see anywhere
from 0 to +1% growth in the total number of currently licensed US
hams.

73 de Jim, N2EY